Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Conservatopia]

For now the race is wide open although the prevailing wisdom seems to be Truss and Wallace as the strongest candidates.

I think it would be a mistake to count out Javid too - he performed quite strongly last time.

Hunt will be the social liberal wing's testimonial candidate, Mordaunt is quite liberal so might eat into that although her Brexiteer credentials will offset that in the MPs rounds.

Braverman will be the hard right's candidate for now. I think her and Baker will come to an agreement of some sort where only one of them ultimately runs. If so then I think Baker is more to run likely than Braverman. He would get a lot further too.

In case anybody cares my personal ranking would be:
Baker>Truss>Wallace>Patel>Javid>Shapps>Hunt>Mordaunt

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Endorsement tracker:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/edit#gid=0

[Conservatopia]

For the last couple of years I have been wanting to create a classification of all the Tory MPs into distinct 'camps' (not 'factions' as such), based on voting record, personal knowledge, and organisation membership.

I've never had the time to do it but this might be catalyst to actually get on and do so.

[Conservatopia]

Esther McVey and Philip Davies (both very right-wing) have backed Jeremy Hunt. In fact, McVey is running on a joint ticket with Hunt. Seems weird to see Steve Brine and Peter Bottomley both endorsing him though.

Hunt has so far positioned himself somewhat to the right of his 2019 bid, possibly in part due to Penny Morduant (a close ally in '19) running her own campaign and taking some of the social liberal support from him. I think he will struggle to differentiate himself from Zahawi, Javid and Mordaunt but if he can stay ahead of them through the rounds, their support could fall in behind him once they are knocked out.

Priti Patel is gathering support for a bid but I think she's left it too late - Braverman and Badenoch are already soaking up her support base. She would be a sought-after endorsement by the campaigns due to her right-wing credentials.

[Conservatopia]

It’s interesting looking at Mourdants supporters- they seem to lack an ideological consistency.

Do they? With some exceptions - socially liberal Brexiteers. With the nearly-universal conversion to Brexit, this could be a large constituency amongst Tory MPs.

Don't forget as well that many MPs will back the leader they see as most likely to win the next election (and preserve their seats) - not the leader they are closest to politically. This can be seen somewhat with Sunak and Hunt's support.

Unless Truss, Tugendhat or Mordaunt can pull a lot of names out of the hat it looks certain that Sunak will win the first round. Tugendhat has the advantage that much of the One Nation Caucus has not yet endorsed - he would be their natural focus.

There's apparently some background negotiations between Badenoch/Patel/Braverman/Mogg - however they are very unlikely to come to anything until the first round is complete. JRM is unlikely to run but has a small cadre of MPs he could marshall behind a candidate.

Shapps and Javid have very anaemic numbers. Many of Javids 2019 supporters have gone to Sunak. They will struggle to differentiate themselves and get through the second round.

Rehman Chishti risks going down as a punchline.

[Conservatopia]

I think it is becoming quite clear that Truss will eventually be the candidate of the right. We'll have a better idea tomorrow but if Patel backs Truss and Truss can get Badenoch and Braverman behind her once they're knocked out then she has a reasonable chance of getting to the last round, provided Sunak does not "loan" Tugendhat a few MPs so that he can face Tugendhat in the final round. Fwiw I think Sunak will definitely do this if he has enough MPs to spare. Boris is said to have done it last time round to stop Gove from getting to the final round by loaning Hunt some MPs.

Sunak will obviously want to face somebody to his left in the final round, therefore not Mordaunt or Truss.

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In hindsight perhaps Javid should have backed Rishi- it was obvious on Sunday he was struggling for nominations from people who weren’t his friends or allies.

On a personal level, it would have been pretty galling to go to Sunak and offer support when he was Javid’s deputy & successor at the Treasury.

This process inevitably leaves a lot of big noises galled and humiliated.

[Conservatopia]

For the last couple of years I have been wanting to create a classification of all the Tory MPs into distinct 'camps' (not 'factions' as such), based on voting record, personal knowledge, and organisation membership.

I've never had the time to do it but this might be catalyst to actually get on and do so.

This is coming along nicely. Thus far the most rightwing MP is apparently Phillip Davies, which figures I guess. Andrew Rosindell is second, which is interesting in more ways than one.

My next step will be to calculate the average score of the supporters of each candidate.

However, I could do with more data for the formulas please. So far these MPs are mostly being ranked by their positions on social issues (Brexit, SSM, Abortion, Euthanasia) and who they backed in 2019. Would anybody have data (division counts, bills with lots of co-sponsors etc) for economic issues? Also if anybody has membership data for the One Nation Caucus that would be very handy.

Appreciate any help I can get on this - it's a mammoth task fiddling with millions of VLOOKUP and SUMIF formulas!

[Conservatopia]

There's going to be heavy pressure on Braverman to drop out and back Truss. Truss' path to second place is narrowing quickly though because Mordaunt has a reservoir of MPs she could draw support from.

I think Mordaunt has to be the heavy favourite to win now. She has the big mo now.

Torrid day for Rishi Sunak - hideous polling from YouGov and ConHome (typically more accurate) and now Mordaunt snapping at his heels. I think there is a world where he takes third place. Would serve all those eager, ambitious MPs backing him right.

[Conservatopia]

As a guide, candidates need about 120 MPs to reach the final round. 120 is around a third of the party, so getting this number guarantees them at least second place.

Now, I think we can all agree that there are only three candidates with a real chance here: Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.

Can Sunak reach 120 MPs? He currently has 88, so needs 32 more. Running down the list of Zahawi/Hunt supporters, he can expect 15-20 of these MPs to back him. He thus only needs to find another 15 or so MPs in the camps of Tugendhat, Badenoch and Braverman. He will make it.

Can Mordaunt reach 120 MPs? She currently has 67 MPs and thus needs 53 more. She can expect 7-10 MPs from Zahawi/Hunt. She then needs to find 43 from Tugendhat, Badenoch and Braverman. I think she can guarantee about 25 of those. Now she needs another 18. She is running it close but the rightwing split will lower the threshold below 120 for her. Thus she can be reasonably confident to making it.

Can Truss reach 120 MPs? She currently has 50 MPs so needs 70 more. She can pick up between 8-12 MPs from Zahawi/Hunt. Now she needs 58 MPs from Tugendhat, Badenoch and Braverman. It's tricky. Truss+Badenoch+Braverman is enough, but we know for certain that many of Badenoch's and some of Braverman's supporters will move to Sunak and Morduant. Let's assume she gets half of Badenoch+Braverman. She's then still nearly 40 MPs short. We'll have a slightly better picture tomorrow, but frankly it looks difficult for Truss to make it through.

I would estimate the chances of each candidate reaching the membership round as follows:
Sunak: 90%
Mordaunt: 68%
Truss: 42%

If you enjoyed that exercise I can redo the calculations after the second round.

[Conservatopia]

To recap, candidates need 120 MPs to be guaranteed a slot in the final round.

Can Sunak reach 120 MPs? He currently has 101, so needs 19 more. This is slightly (4) less than I predicted yesterday but he should still get through, barring any unexpected developments.

Can Mordaunt reach 120 MPs? She currently has 82 MPs and thus needs 38 more. She get 6-9 of these from Braverman and 8-12 from Tugendhat. She then needs to get another 20 or so from Badenoch, which is doable. If Truss is knocked out before Badenoch, most of Truss' support will sweep to Mordaunt. Dread it, run from it, PM Mordaunt arrives all the same.

Can Truss reach 120 MPs? She currently has 64 MPs so needs 56 more. I correctly guessed the number of MPs she would gain after the first round but this time is a bit more tricky. Truss+Badenoch+Braverman leaves little margin for error and we know that some on the Right will move to Mordaunt rather than Truss. Let's continue assuming she gets half of Badenoch+Braverman. She's still nearly 20 MPs short. Truss is also in danger of slipping behind Badenoch if Braverman's support consolidates behind Badenoch. However, I think this is unlikely as the Right knows that Truss' support would then move to Mordaunt and thus Badenoch would be locked out.

Updated estimate of the chances of each candidate reaching the membership round:
Sunak: 89% (-1%)
Mordaunt: 74% (+6%)
Truss: 33% (-9%)
Badenoch: 4% (+4%)

[Conservatopia]

In my calculation above I assumed half (38) of Badenoch+Braverman would go to Truss, which is already a stretch. So if half (14) of Braverman's supporters really do go to Truss, then that really doesn't change the calculus much. Tugendhat's supporters are going to go more strongly for Mordaunt than for Truss and that's ballgame.

Now if 20+ Braverman supporters went to Truss that would be a different story, but, for the moment at least, nothing has changed.

[Conservatopia]

In my calculation above I assumed half (38) of Badenoch+Braverman would go to Truss, which is already a stretch. So if half (14) of Braverman's supporters really do go to Truss, then that really doesn't change the calculus much. Tugendhat's supporters are going to go more strongly for Mordaunt than for Truss and that's ballgame.

Now if 20+ Braverman supporters went to Truss that would be a different story, but, for the moment at least, nothing has changed.

If Truss manages to only pick-up half of the Braverman/Banedoch axis of support, will Rishi have enough MPs to loan out to Truss in the final ballot of MPs in order to stop Mordaunt?

In theory yes, but the numbers between the three candidates would be pretty tight so I doubt he would risk it.

On a related note: Truss and Mordaunt appear to be realising that if either of them reach the final round, they will need the other's endorsement to lock down a win against Rishi. Therefore, their attacks on one another appear to have abated somewhat. This might be temporary - the debates will offer them opportunities to savage one another although ultimately I think Rishi will still come off worst in the debates.

And finally to those of you wondering "Penny Who?" I offer you this 2019 hagiography from Iain Dale: https://www.iaindale.com/articles/the-penny-mordaunt-profile-long-read-version

[Conservatopia]

Just remember that the next ballot is still merely MPs (who know the candidates well) voting and most of them won't vote based on the debate that just took place. Therefore it's more important to look at who hit the right notes that will secure them MP support that would otherwise have gone to somebody else.

For that reason I think Mordaunt is the tactical winner: no real gaffes and went some way to reassuring people that she isn't a woke radical.

She's lying of course, they all are (duh), but this might be the excuse some Braverman/Badenoch MPs use to justify to themselves a switch to Mordaunt over Truss. Think people like Michael Gove or Richard Drax* or Lee Anderson - what reason do they have left to support Truss over Mordaunt now?

*I wonder if Drax knew his way to the voting room this week - after all, he so rarely attends Parliament

[Conservatopia]

I have been invited by Opinium to take part in their snap poll of the next leaders debate. I was asked to take part in the 2019 GE poll (which I did), and the poll for the debate this week, but I didn't watch it live so didn't do the poll for that one.

I think part of the reason I was picked was because in the last voting intention poll I picked "don't know" so they probably see me as a fabled floating voter.

[Conservatopia]

I have been invited by Opinium to take part in their snap poll of the next leaders debate. I was asked to take part in the 2019 GE poll (which I did), and the poll for the debate this week, but I didn't watch it live so didn't do the poll for that one.

I think part of the reason I was picked was because in the last voting intention poll I picked "don't know" so they probably see me as a fabled floating voter.

Well this didn't quite go according to plan. I had some friends round, drank too much, fell asleep, missed the debate, watched a clip of it on YouTube and still couldn't make out what was going on.

ConHome polls are maybe not at their most reliable right now.

Whilst they are unscientific I would take them a lot more seriously than the YouGov or Opinium ones.

On an unrelated note I love how politicians of all stripes keep talking about "the public want us to do this" or "the public want us to stop saying that" - have they ever met the public? Most of these dopes have been in politics (or worse, banking and legal stuff) their entire lives, they've wouldn't know the public if it sat on them.

[Conservatopia]

Heat seems to be getting to people as there’s a lot of weird briefing- Badenoch camp claiming they’ll go above Truss, Mordaunt camp claiming she’ll get a lot of TT people.

I’ll wait for the results but my hunch is that Truss could still struggle.

I would also advise Rishi not to put your finger on the scale and lend votes to face someone you ‘prefer’ in the final two- you tempt fate alone doing that.

Yes far better to max out your number of MPs and look as though you are the most serious candidate.

[Conservatopia]

My calculation:

Sunak: 132
Truss: 116
Mordaunt: 108

This assumes no shenanigans from Rishi's camp which is an unrealistic assumption after what happened yesterday.

Yesterday a load of Sunak supporters are thought to have switched (temporarily?) to Truss.

[Conservatopia]

My calculation:

Sunak: 132
Truss: 116
Mordaunt: 108

Reality:

Sunak: 137
Truss: 113
Mordaunt: 105

To me this suggests there was no funny business.

Tbh, whilst the polls for Sunak don't look great at the moment, I think both Truss and Mordaunt are eminently beatable for him in the membership vote, particularly given a month long hustings. Mordaunt more so perhaps, as if you're on the right then there really isn't any especially good reason to vote for her over Sunak, but I don't necessarily think that Truss' right-wing posturing is the advantage that some assume it to be, given that the party membership has tended to back the more 'electable' candidate in past contests (with the exception of IDS vs Clarke in 2001).

Battle lines have been drawn between you and I, my friend.

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I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

[Conservatopia]

Truss will be hugely popular - after all, whether you're a liberal, a Brexiteer, a republican, a free-trader or a culture warrior, she's been on your side at some point.

[Conservatopia]

It hasn't really been discussed, but is there not another issue that Sunak has amongst the Tory membership? Not as much of an issue as it would have been 20 or 30 years ago, but still enough to push his support down by a few percent perhaps.

Don't forget that Kemi Badenoch was/is extremely popular with the hard right despite being more visibly minority than Rishi.

[Conservatopia]

Opinium finds ordinary voters think Sunak beat Truss in the debate by 39% to 38%. When you're only 1% ahead of Liz Truss in a debate...

I took part in that poll. It asked all sorts of questions including who I'd rather have a coffee with. Don't they know Tories drink tea?

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Liz Truss has declared herself a Freedom Fighter. All we need now is for Sunak to attack her for Excessive Hyperbole and Atlas will have gone mainstream.

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A lot of confidential government documents shedding a bad light on Sunak's time in office are finding their way to the press but nobody has any idea who could possibly be leaking them...