auburntiger
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,233
Political Matrix
E: -2.61, S: 0.65
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« on: May 20, 2008, 04:49:31 PM » |
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« edited: May 20, 2008, 04:55:03 PM by auburntiger »
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No it's not yet, and like DWTL said, we'll have to wait until this election ends to see if the theory holds up.
Take NC for example. So technically Bush's margin of victory in NC went from 56.03% down to 56.02%. Part of the reason he didn't increase his performance there was because Edwards was on the ticket, and he probably influenced the ticket by a couple of points. Had he not been on the ticket, NC would've most likely been a 57-43 victory. But North Carolina is FAR from being a tossup-lean Dem state. In the last week of the 2004 election, polls showed Bush winning by 8-9 points when he ended up winning by 12.43%, ever so slightly less than his 12.83% margin of victory in 2000. North Carolina is the Republican New Jersey
VA is also another example where Bush was polling in mid-single digits (4-6%) but ended up winning nationally by 8.20%
FL is another one.
So until we have some concrete evidence on the NATIONAL level for presidential elections, you can't really assume the solid South is starting to crack.
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