auburntiger
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,233
Political Matrix
E: -2.61, S: 0.65
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« on: February 21, 2008, 01:18:13 AM » |
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« edited: February 21, 2008, 01:23:15 AM by auburntiger »
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I think so, BUT:
Obama isn't going to sweep Colorado by a 9 point margin, not with McCain as his opponent. He might win the state, but not more than 1-2% points. I think Colorado will be the pivital state this year like Ohio was in 2004 and Florida in 2000. Not sure before that what state(s) were the pivotal ones.
As far as Ohio goes, I think it depends how well Obama does in the primary there. If hillary wins by a comfortable margin, I'm calling for a VERY narrow McCain victory. Why? B/c now Obama is the clear frontrunner and if he doesn't win Ohio or get within 10 points, it shows he's not that popular with Ohians on the whole. McCain would do well with the older generation.
with the handful of "barely Bush" states in 2004, here's what I think the order will be from more Dem to more GOP: Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. But in between NV and OH, I'm tempted to throw in Missouri and/or Virginia. I'm feeling confident about FL staying red
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