MD-Rasmussen: Clinton would lose solid Democratic state to McCain

[auburntiger]

I don't buy this poll, nor do I buy the ones that have Indiana at D+5, South Carolina at D+1, or Virginia at D+10.

However, if for some strange reason in November, Maryland gives the Democrat less than a 10% margin of victory, McCain has already won and has outperformed Bush in the EC.

[auburntiger]

If the poll in Maryland proves true or McCain wins the popular vote by 6-7%, 1988 style, and I mean HUGE IF, then I don't see how Arkansas can possibly go blue. It would have to jump left by over 15 points. Bill could do that back when Arkansas was much more Dem on the national level. Hillary won't, and Arkansas has been trending GOP. Giving the same argument about state trends vs. the national average:
From '92 to '96, AR swung slightly towards Dole, making Clinton lose ground by 4 points relative to the national average.

[auburntiger]

I don't buy this poll, nor do I buy the ones that have Indiana at D+5, South Carolina at D+1, or Virginia at D+10.

However, if for some strange reason in November, Maryland gives the Democrat less than a 10% margin of victory, McCain has already won and has outperformed Bush in the EC.

Yeah, if Clinton sinks below 53% in MD, I predict a Dukakis with 54% of the vote going to McCain.

...and the map looks sorta like 1988....

and if this poll IS true.... I would suspect a Mondale with a PV of 40-59

Here I would suspect the end of the democratic party.

That would be absolutely BEAUTIFUL...lake McCain

[auburntiger]

If the poll in Maryland proves true or McCain wins the popular vote by 6-7%, 1988 style, and I mean HUGE IF, then I don't see how Arkansas can possibly go blue. It would have to jump left by over 15 points. Bill could do that back when Arkansas was much more Dem on the national level. Hillary won't, and Arkansas has been trending GOP. Giving the same argument about state trends vs. the national average:
From '92 to '96, AR swung slightly towards Dole, making Clinton lose ground by 4 points relative to the national average.

I'll take polls over faulty trend logic. Go explain the trend in Georgia between 1960 and 1984. There's a hell of a lot of independent factors that can throw it off balance.

Fair enough. However, I do expect polls to tighten here. And if Huckabee is the VP with McCain, then AR will go down to the wire election night.