Romney - 45%
Huckabee - 35%
Giuliani - 15%
McCain - 4%
Thompson - 1%
Same, except I'd probably put Romney closer to 40% and Giuliani closer to 20%. BRTD, Boss Tweed, and I seem to be virtually alone on this forum in thinking both that Romney is still the slight favorite for the nomination and that Giuliani is in far worse shape than the CW would have you believe (though I'm not *quite* as pessimistic about Giuliani as they are....then again, things are really fluid right now, so I might change my mind by next week). Actually, the one other person who I think probably agrees with us is Inks.
I don't think we will nominate Romney. The more that polls show him weak in what are normally lean-to-solid red states, the more people will get the idea that he is unelectable. Trailing by a point in Texas isn't exactly winning material.
As for Giuliani and the northeast, the consensus seems to be that all of those states are out of reach for any Republican, no matter who we nominate. Therefore, we have to play defense in all close 2004 red states: OH, NM, IA, CO, NV, FL, MO, AR, VA, and probably WV. The only 2004 blue state up for grabs is WI.
Of those 11 mentioned, I think only Huck could potentially carry all 11. Of course, everything would have to go perfectly wrong for Hill or Obama.
