ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[HarrisonL]

Gideon will run against Collins. It's true Collins is Lean R, but probably less vulnerable than she's made out to be, definitely not DOA like Gardner or Jones. Golden will face a tough re-election to the House, especially if Trump wins ME-02, but honestly he fares better winning re-election than beating Collins, especially if Bruce Poliquin runs against him again.

Furthermore, the Freshman Model works most of the time, and Schumer favours it to the
"run an old Dem governor from 200 years ago that can win anymore." model, but this model only works against really weak incumbents, or in open states where the candidate is heavily favoured.

For example

Jacky Rosen, NV-2018 (win)
Tom Cotton, AR-2014 (win)
Steve Daines, MT-2014 (win)

Linda Lingle, HI-2012 (L)
Ted Strickland, OH-2016 (L)
Bredesen, TN-2018 (L)

just some examples.

[HarrisonL]

Sara Gideon is about to become the most overrated Democratic Candidate of this whole election. Collins will literally turn around and win by 15% still you watch.

[HarrisonL]

Sara Gideon is about to become the most overrated Democratic Candidate of this whole election. Collins will literally turn around and win by 15% still you watch.

Dude, you literally said Moore would defeat Jones because of polarization, you can't actually believe Collins can win by 15% simultaneously.

I believe Maine is more elastic than Southern States in Senate races in recent years.

[HarrisonL]

Also why are the predictions associated with my Atlas Account incorrect. I know for a fact I did not predict Steve Pearce winning the New Mexico governorship. Why are the predictions not my actual ones I remember making on here. Anyone know?

[HarrisonL]

Because I uh...I only predicted KS Gov incorrect last time, I got higher accuracy than it gives me.