Do usual New Jersey patterns apply to 2009?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I have been thinking about this at length and Republicans polling well at this time usually turns because:

1.) leads are small (3-5 pts on average)
2.) undecideds are very, very high (R near 42-44%)
3.) Democratic base comes home

While number 3 is certainly possible with Corzine registering only around 80% Dem support, the other two are not.  Christie's leads usually are around double digits and he usually breaks 50%.

Are we to believe this is for real?

[DownWithTheLeft]

The problem is, the Republicans aren't usually leading, they are usually down 5 points or so, thats why Reps get optimistic. This time the REP is up double-digits. So no, the "pattern" doesn't apply.

That applies to Forrester both times, but Kean was leading at this point (albeit by very little with high undecideds)

Its just that Christie (according to the polls) does not even need a break of undecideds, he just needs his voters not to leave his camp