Smash's Senate & House Predictions

[DownWithTheLeft]

Keystone Phil's are much better as you overestimate the Democrats in most races

[DownWithTheLeft]

Keystone Phil's are much better as you overestimate the Democrats in most races

Anybody currently picking Santorum to win is overestimating the Republicans.

He has a point, and he acknowledges Casey is the favorite at the moment.

Smash has no realism because he still insists Menendez is the favorite.

Menendez by 5?  If he somehow pulls it out it will be more like 2%
Tester by 8? Tester should win by something like 2 or 3
Casey by 6? If Santorum doesn't win it certainly is closer than 6.

[DownWithTheLeft]

GOP hold
Pennsylvania - He's staying, guys. Santorum wins by two three to four points.

Quite intellectual!

Tester by 8 is a minor overstatement, but it mirrors most recent polls on the race.
Casey by 6 is hardly unreasonable.  The last 4 polls have Casey of 5, 6, 6, and 8.  It certainly makes more sense than picking Santorum to win.

As for Menendez being the favorite, well, he probably isn't.  TradeSports says Kean is selling at 55, so he's a marginal favorite.  But due to the high number of undecideds in NJ that historically break hard D, Menendez has a very good chance to win.

Now, everyone's heart seeps into their predictions.  Or at least most people's.  Put at least defarge triess to rationalize it instead of stating, "he's staying, guys!"

I agree w/ you on NJ. It's not that Kean can't win or is not the favoured candidate right now. It's the level of UD is far too high - and as you said NJ UD swing heavily D of late. Also the plain demographics of the state are making me wait on this one.

The amount of times Smash and others say "NJ undecided break hard Dem as of late."

Or my favorite is when Smash says they do when "the candidate is not well-known" (which would be always)

NJ gave a large bounce to Bush post-9/11.  Please, can someone tell me how many statewide elections have been held post 9/11 when Doug Forrester is not the candidate?

0

The answer again is: 0

Previous elections can hardly be used as a standard in this case b/c there is no election that bars a lot of similarties w/this race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

So you think that bounce has lasted for nearly 2 years?

I think it's possible, the NJ is certainly in better shape, I'm more saying this race can't be gauged by 2000, 2002, 2005 or further back

[DownWithTheLeft]

Given Bush's approval rating in NJ is presently 33% (the same as MA btw) - and has only grazed 40% once since May 2005 - I would say Bush wouldn't be helpful.

So if you're thinking that Bush's 9/11 bounce somehow is helping Republicans statewide... then I think the Reps need that help like a hole in the head.

If the Dems lose this seat - it won't be because the Reps won it.

The Republicans win this seat because Tom Kean Jr. is a squeaky clean great candidate and Bob Menendez is corrupt party-boss scumbag.

Previous races and Bush have little to no effect

[DownWithTheLeft]

But weren't you saying that post 9/11 bounce (which is directly related to Bush - and brought NJ into play in '04) has helped place the Reps in a better position?

Therefore you do agree that if the Dems lose the seat it will be a Dem LOSS rather than a Rep WIN. Because they are the incumbent party and should have won this relatively easily, but they got sloppy and took the seat for granted.

It's a combination of both, the Republicans nominated their best candidate, Doug Forrester would have made this race FL material, on the other hand Dick Codey would have made it MI material.

I think the Republicans deserve a lot of credit for picking a great nominee.

And yes, I do believe that 9/11 is pushing NJ a little to the right, and the high cost of living is pushing out many poor liberals.