How likely is a complete GOP shutout?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I say little chance and here's my top oppurtunites and I'm almost certain Kean Jr. will win

1. Tom Kean Jr.
2. Dick DeVos
3. Jim Nussle
4. Michael Steele
5. Chandler Woodcock
6. David McSweeney
7. Ron Saxton
8. Mark Kennedy
9. Mike Bouchard
10. A number of people, leave it open

I also a strange feeling that Martha Rainville will win VT-AL

Steele jumps to No. 2 behind Kean if Mfume wins the primary, down below McSweeney if Cardin.  I don't see a shutout, Kean will at least win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

You are wrong there are 20% undecided, but Woodcock hasn't lead in a single poll.

He leads according to SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen has a 1 point race.  The others are unreliable polls.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

I put Kean beating Menendez at 60%, and Steele beating Mfume at 60%, the chance that they both lose is about 10%

[DownWithTheLeft]

DownwiththeLeft do you actually Kean only has a 10% chance of losing the NJ Senate race or did you just type something inncorrectly?

I said he is favored to win w/about 60% certainty, same percentage if Mfume beats Cardin for Steele.  I'm saying the chance that both of them, since they are or would be favorites, losing is about 10%.  I don't see a way both of them would lose, one or the other or both would win.  You may not agree, and the acceptable, but it makes sense.