I anticipate that these polls are making one major mistake:
They're vastly overestimating Biden's "white vote". The idea that Trump's white vote will go from the 60% range to 48% against Joe Biden is ridiculous. I think that is skewing the poll way off. If you give Trump 55-60% of the white vote, these numbers become drastically different.
Not at all really. Biden has consistently done MUCH better with this demo than Hillary did. 2016 was also a high-water mark for trump in many ways, and now as opposed to then he is an incumbent. I've seen many polls consistently show that Biden does about 10+ points better with white men and women than Hillary did. Just b/c you don't like it doesn't mean it won't happen.