IBD/TIPP national: Biden/Bloomberg +2, Sanders/Buttigieg +1, Warren -1

[Florida Man for Crime]

Trump now trails Biden by 4% in the rcp average, just 2 months ago on nov 8, he was down by 10.2% so he has gained ground.

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1192448006139891712

Biden, or any Dem, was never going to win by 10 nationally. 4-5% seems accurate. If the advantage is 3% or below, Trump will probably win the EC again.

It is quite typical and predictable for general election poll #s to sag during a contested primary. The reason is that you get some supporters of one primary candidate saying that they won't vote for the other candidate in the general election. But in reality, the vast majority of them will. So once the nominee is chosen and things settle down, then polling #s recover afterwards.

So while the Dem may not win by 10 nationally (although i would not rule out something not as far from that as you might think), the Dem polling #s right now and for the next few months are likely to be unrealistically deflated.

[Florida Man for Crime]

That’s not really what’s happening, what’s happening is that soft republican voters who were undecided a few months ago are rallying around Trump. Four months ago Trump numbers were around 41%, they’re now around 44%, look at the IBD poll, in August Trump was at 42%, in October he was at 44% then 45% and now he is at 46%.

There is certainly some truth to that, and that is to be expected as well. Parties rally around their nominee as attention starts to shift to the election, and that is the case for Trump and the GOP as well. In reality it looks like a combination of both. The last 3 IBD/TIPP polls on RCP go like this:

Biden 53 - Trump 43
Biden 50 - Trump 45
Biden 48 - Trump 46

That is Trump going up a bit, but also is Biden going down a bit.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls