WaPo/Ipsos: Trump at 4-5% against all Democrats among black adults (user search)
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  WaPo/Ipsos: Trump at 4-5% against all Democrats among black adults (search mode)
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Author Topic: WaPo/Ipsos: Trump at 4-5% against all Democrats among black adults  (Read 2383 times)
Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,029


« on: January 11, 2020, 04:09:29 PM »

Washington Post/Ipsos, Jan. 2-8, 1088 non-Hispanic black adults.

Biden 82, Trump 4
Sanders 74, Trump 4
Warren 71, Trump 4
Booker 67, Trump 4
Bloomberg 62, Trump 4
Yang 62, Trump 4
Klobuchar 58, Trump 5
Buttigieg 57, Trump 4

Somebody better check on Charlie Kirk.

Yeah, but Buttigieg is only at 57%, and many of the other candidates not much higher... So in theory...

Just theoretically, mind you...

Trump could get all the undecideds, and then Trump would be sitting at 43% support with black voters.

It is possible...



And that is better than any Republican has done with black voters since Abraham Lincoln (no source provided).








And then Buttigieg goes like this:

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Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,029


« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2020, 12:42:34 PM »

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

For once, you are correct and have realistic expectations for him.

No, you have unrealistically pessimistic expectations for the Dems (in terms of performance with African American voters).
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Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,029


« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2020, 12:51:18 PM »

Eh. 2016 had the black vote going 89% Clinton, 8% Trump, 3% Other. If 2020 is something like 92% Democrat, 7% Trump, 1% Other that's still a pro Dem swing.

You are misinformed by (typically inaccurate) exit polls. Actual #s were more likely to be around 3% African American support for Trump.

https://medium.com/@CatalistAnalytics/catalist-post-election-analysis-series-356c4ea20692

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4#gid=433702266
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Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,029


« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2020, 04:29:44 PM »

?? This poll had Clinton at +93 among blacks, better than Obama 08 and matching Obama 12. It also has democrats doing worse than her among blacks in 2018.

It is not a poll, it is aggregation of sophisticated individual-level voter modeling using the best available methodology and data.

Correct, it has her doing as well as Obama '12 and better than Obama '08 among African American voters. If you think that is wrong, while it is indeed quite possible it could be slightly off by a point or 2, it is more likely to be your assumptions that are wrong.

As for why Dems would do worse among Blacks in 2018 than 2016, the likely explanation is that this is comparing Congressional vote data to Presidential vote data. In congressional races, a lot of races are not seriously contested and have lopsided vote results, because the challenger is not a serious candidate/doesn't get funding to run a serious campaign. In those sorts of races, Black voters (like voters in general) are more likely to vote differently than in Presidential races. In addition, in midterms the African American electorate is older and higher income than in Presidential years, which tends to make it slightly more GOP-friendly (you can see similar patterns in the 2010/2014 data).
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