Iraq/Iran Megathread - Latest: U.S. to close Baghdad embassy

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Under what authorization does Trump have to essentially declare war on Iran?

Chuck Schumer apparently was not even notified in advance, and if anyone in Congress were he would be among them.. you would think..

https://twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1212927051616997376

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Does anyone here think the draft will be reinstated for whatever conflict ends up happening with Iran?

It would take way too long to train draftees to have any sort of immediate impact. So this could only occur if we were idiotic enough to try to actually invade and occupy Iran. Which would be a degree of idiocy much larger than the idiocy of invading Iraq, so... The question is... How stupid is Donald Trump? Hopefully not that stupid...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

War is a definite at this point. Woe to the millions of bodies that are expected in this conflict, along with any other anguish.

Let me break this down to you guys. The murder of that jackass Soleimani will definitely lead to war, a war that the US will go through even worse then Iraq or Afghanistan combined. Expect probable attacks on US troops in the region done by the IRCG and other militias and proxies. Iran is in a much better position militarily then Iraq during the war in 2003; a semi diversified economy, domestic armaments industry, and a unified home front are the obvious changes. I expect the protests in Iran right now to die down as most rally round the flag to avoid getting turned into Iraq. No one, especially none on the ground, wants this other then the PMOI and Shahis located in LA and American foreign policy thinktanks.

None of our European allies will be thrilled to go to war. I expect a lack of enthusiasm and even nations refusing to go to save their own political situation what with the continued crisis in the EU. Trump is going to be isolated, both on this front and at home. Get ready for the largest anti-war protests you’ll ever see with a president down  10 percentage points. The only question is if this escalates into what we saw with the protests in Nam.

I expect a global economic collapse to be worse then expected from this. I expect an emboldened Al-Qaeda and ISIS to act on this opportunity to claw back into Iraq and Syria. I expect the Iraqi government to fully abandon the US, even the Dawa party and especially the Sadrists. I expect this to be the beginning to the end of the American Empire itself. I can expect both pain from loss of life here and abroad.

To all who voted for Trump, I hope you’re happy for the death and destruction he has caused so far, and the cataclysmic disaster to follow.

This is another case where the above analysis is quite plausible. However, it is so because, in large, part, Trump is the President.

Compare the situation now to the situation, for example, in the Cuban Missile Crisis. I would say that the situation is currently less than that.

So war is *not* inevitable. But avoiding war requires intelligent leaders with an understanding of strategy and, probably most importantly, a knowledge and appreciation of history.

Conflict can be averted, but it requires rational and deliberate leaders who can step back and look at the situation objectively (on both sides), and who can recognize this mutually and then call up the other leader and say "It looks like we are heading to an escalating cycle. We should be able to see clearly, both of us, that this will not be good for anyone. So what can we do to avoid this?"

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The good news is that the House would never rubber stamp a war with Iran.  The bad news is that the President doesn't need congressional approval for war and the Constitution has been ignored on this subject for every war since Vietnam.

If Iran wants to go to war with the United States over this, it's hard to say they're not justified in doing so.  And because the US would be entering this conflict with no support from the general public, no support from anyone except the neocons in Trump's cabinet, it is a conflict that we would be sure to lose.

Nah, as soon as it started there would automatically be 95% support from the Republican base, and about 0% support from everyone else. You have to remember that the GOP base will support anything that a Republican President does, uncritically, near-unanimously (because anyone who does not behave in that lemming-like fashion doesn't last as a member of the GOP base). That is because it is all worth it in the end, because just think of all the judges.

So basically 40-45% support. Which is not "no" support from "anyone."

Eventually after a while it could drop as low as 35% or so though, if things go bad (similarly to what happened in Iraq after a while).

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

I'm so happy right now. This is why I like Trump. 100% yes. This is a message of strength -- goodbye Iran Deal! Goodbye Obama! F**k the Mullahs!

Cool, I assume you and HillGoose are ready to fight on the front line in Tehran? Surely as fun as extrajudicial killings and wars which are going to claim the lives of tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers?

Sure am fam

Here you go:

http://www.goarmy.com/Enlist

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Unconfirmed, but if true, good job Donny...

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1213166276752879616?s=20

I posted earlier and deleted because it seems to be false. WaPo reporter:

https://twitter.com/Mustafa_salimb/status/1213167782692577282

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Lots of conflicting information right now.

This rumor has been going around for about an hour now, without confirmation. There was a twitter post with an image of explosions that was apparently fake (image was from several years ago).

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Well, Trump will probably win Virginia now.

Mmhmm, George W. Bush won Loudoun County and PW County! I guess suburban voters love conflict in the middle east, look for a massive suburban swing to Trump!

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

That's why this is so puzzling, there is no way US comes out of this as a clear winner.

The issue here is that you are trying to think ahead, whereas Trump can only think in the present and gets distracted every time he talks to a new person.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Neither of these sound particularly good...

1) Iraqi Sunni leader (not Shi'a!!!!!!!!!!!):

https://twitter.com/Brasco_Aad/status/1213198068654456834


2) At least a certain subset of Iranians are apparently quite willing to die to hit back...:

https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1213202257086492672

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

--Iran is 4 times the size of Iraq, both in population and area.

The population is a bit more than 2x larger, not 4x. But your overall point is of course quite correct and well founded.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://twitter.com/wide_geo/status/1213214455556763648

Not sure about the source for this and the other tweets you posted, looks like they might be bots/propaganda?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

^^ No confirmation of this appears in any mainstream news outlets at least as of yet, so I would treat with skepticism until confirmed, the twitter sources seem fairly random (there are some alleged photos of the airstrike, but earlier alleged photos of earlier alleged airstrikes apparently were fakes).

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Here it is actually on reuters ---

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-blast-taji/air-strikes-targeting-iraqi-militia-kill-six-army-source-idUSKBN1Z229P

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

OK, Al Jazeera now has it as breaking news https://www.aljazeera.com/

And also it was mentioned on Sky News.

So I think it can be considered legit at this point.

I am feeling paranoid though about twitter rumors and bots etc, twitter feels... unreliable/shaky...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

It stands to reason that with whatever happens over the next few days/weeks, information warfare will be part of it. One thing that I think is worth keeping in mind is that it is possible that some nations/organizations could set up things like twitter bots, give them some information on breaking news that initially turns out to be correct, and then later on after they have established apparent credibility, feed in fake news to those same bots (or even human sources). As an example, some intelligence agency/nation could have advance news of some sort of actual event/attack, feed it to bots/certain sources to report it first, and then later on start feeding fake info to the same sources to spread misinformation.

Maybe I am being too paranoid, but better safe than sorry I would say in these sorts of circumstances. Better to be too paranoid than not to be sufficiently skeptical. It seems apparent that there will be a lot of rumors going around, so it is important to be appropriately skeptical of things that are not verified, and to keep in mind the possibility that at least some rumors could be deliberate misinformation planted by who-knows-who for who-knows-what-purpose.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

And to strengthen the point I just made above... For example there is this to worry about:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1213243677612691456

https://twitter.com/leloveluck/status/1213231474188705795

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213593975732527112

Wouldn't targeting a cultural site constitute some sort of War Crime?

Yes, if it were deliberately hitting a non-military site not being used for military purposes, i.e. gratuitous bombing of historical ruins in Persepolis or something like that?

Anyway, this doesn't appear to be heading in a positive direction, at least from the rhetoric...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Someone please remove this lunatic from office ASAP!

I guess this is Trump's own peculiar way of trying to pressure Pelosi to send over articles of impeachment to the Senate.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1213836953759756292

Would Soleimani himself have been happy to die for this? Apparently so. From his perspective, if the dead could speak, he would likely say that Trump did him a favor. Although he presumably would have been sad that he could no longer assist in achieving various other Iranian strategic aims, he would have been aware that he had plenty of successors to do that.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://twitter.com/tparsi/status/1213839002366861317

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

I do have to take issue with the use of Caligula as an analogy to Trump because that image we all have of him was crafted by classist elites who he humiliatated and defeated beyond the limits of what they thought possible at the time.
Your overall point is inarguably true though.

There is somewhat of a difference also because Caligula reportedly was relatively ok for the first part of his reign, until he had some sort of uknown illness/poisoning ("brain fever"). What exactly the "brain fever" was is unknown/debated by historians, but obviously it may have been something that set off some sort of mental illness, which may have caused/contributed to Caligula's more crazy actions after that.

By comparison, consider Trump.

Trump did NOT have a first part of his term which was relatively ok/normal. Right out of the gate it was immediately the inauguration crowd size lies and shortly after that round 1 of the Muslim ban etc.

So in this respect, Trump is apparently worse than Caligula.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

We are totally hijacking This Thread, but this is one of most interesting discussions I've engaged in here 4 months.

Could we give Trump somewhat the benefit of the doubt and say he was only as bad in Caligula in terms of descending into dementia, by incorporating his mental state in the year or so he was a candidate for president question mark it may not strictly count for the time that he was our actual president, but in the function of American democracy it's certainly relevant. Also, as has been pointed out in other threads here, even by that point he unquestionably invisibly had degenerated mentally from even a decade or so earlier.

So though I am hardly convinced of it, Playing devil's advocate I'm wondering if it could be said Trump's descent into dementia and arguable Madness is simply comprable to Caligula's rather than tangibly worse?

Another way to look at it is that Caligula was about 24-25 years old when he became Emperor and about 28 when he was assassinated. Dementia/mental illness/etc is not really normal for that age. However, Trump was inaugurated at age 70. At that point in life, some sort of cognitive decline is more common.

Supposing that Trump had become President at age 24, I doubt he would have been a good President then, but he would have been more similar to those old videos of Trump 10-20-30 years ago in which he was apparently able to formulate coherent thoughts.

So in this respect it is a bit unfair to Trump to compare a 70 year old Trump to a 24 year old Caligula.

On the other hand though, to some degree Caligula had more of an excuse of impetuousness/rashness/inexperience of youth.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Iran hadn't actually left the nuclear deal back when Trump pulled out of it. They stayed in it and tried to continue cooperating with the Europeans (maybe hoping that the US might re-join if Trump were not re-elected, who knows). But now...:

https://twitter.com/farnazfassihi/status/1213883623449006083

So what exactly is the ETA for Iran getting nukes if they start enriching uranium ASAP?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Per the Associated Press: Iran abandons nuclear deal

North Korea has basically been vindicated. It has taught all countries to never a make a peace deal with the US like the “iran deal". Never slow down on nukes.

Indeed. I remember when the Iran nuclear deal was negotiated, I was very surprised by it. I had thought that Iran's various denials about wanting nukes were at least mostly propaganda, and that they would understand that actually having nukes was the only sure-fire way to deter Republican presidents from attacking them.