Betomania Megathread: "Mr. Trumpachev, Tear Down This Wall!"

[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto has been invited to New Hampshire. And so it begins.

I guess the question we all have to be wondering, since Beto is already beating Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, how much is he beating her by so far in New Hampshire?

New Hampshire Democrats invite rising star Beto O'Rourke to the crucial presidential primary state

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[Florida Man for Crime]

can you make this the beto megathread? will be helpful for the next decade

Done.

[Florida Man for Crime]

A fairly substantive article from Politico, of all places. WTF?

Beto Has a Path to the Presidency: Lincoln’s

The Texas newcomer would do well to pay attention to what another political underdog did more than a century ago.

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Apparently TX Law allows Beto to run both for the Presidency and for the Senate at the same time... So there we go!

Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020]Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Chris Matthews feels a thrill going up his leg for Beto.


Chris Matthews: Beto O’Rourke should run for president

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto is obviously going to run. LOL at everyone who is still insisting that he is not going to run.

If Julian Castro knows what is good for him, he will drop out of the Presidential race before it even gets started and run for Senate instead, and then ride Beto's coattails into the Senate. If he waits around before announcing his Senate run, Hegar may beat him to it.


https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/dems-primary-debate-may

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[Florida Man for Crime]

We know that Beto will raise huge amounts from small donors, but he is also now lining up the big money bundlers.

Beto O'Rourke lands big Obama fundraiser

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[Florida Man for Crime]

NYT exhibiting symptoms of Betomania -

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/09/us/politics/beto-2020-presidential-race.html

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[Florida Man for Crime]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.

It is not unusual for the "real" Dem candidates in statewide races in TX to have problems in South TX in the primary. The reason for this is primarily name ID, low info voters, and that a certain # of people will automatically vote for whoever has a Spanish surname. The thing you have to realize is there are a lot of people there who vote in Dem primaries who are only really voting because the Dem primary is effectively the General Election in local races. Turnout in Dem primaries in South TX has often been higher than in the General Election in November, which means you are getting more low info voters out and, since primaries are early before statewide candidates can really be expected to have been able to do much campaigning in a state as huge as TX, that leads to the candidates that should win often losing or underperforming in South TX.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The Battle Over Beto for President Feels Like 2016 All Over Again
An online spat reveals how divisive the upcoming Democratic primaries will be.

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[Florida Man for Crime]

This is a pretty good article, worth reading in full. There is much more that I would want to quote, but can't because of copyright:

Beto is the new Bernie

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Note that the author, David Faris, is the guy who wrote the book "It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics" which calls for splitting up California etc.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/13/politics/2020-rankings-presidential/index.html


Beto already at number 2 in cnn and they admit if he wasn't coy he would be 1.

Some really good lines in that article:

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Beto has the "it."

[Florida Man for Crime]

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This sums it up well - Beto is the candidate for the viral generation. It's not like the Presidency is a serious job or anything...

The American people are not remotely serious. The sooner one understands that, the sooner one can become a sensible analyst of American politics.

Though actually, this isn't all the American people's fault. And the lack of seriousness of the American voter is as much a symptom as a cause.

The American system of government is fundamentally, systemically dysfunctional and does not provide the possibility of effective governance. It is pretty close to impossible, except under the most optimal of circumstances, to pass meaningful legislation of any sort in the US. That leads the American people, out of desperation, to try to elect people who will somehow (maybe) overcome the system through force of personality.

If regular politicians with experience and qualifications had any possibility or any record of actually ever achieving anything whatsoever, then the American people would be more likely to elect those people.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Not a very smart answer, Beto.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Not a very smart answer, Beto.

Extremely smart answer

For the general.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I've been talking about Beto O'Rourke since 2017. He's a 2020 Democratic frontrunner for a reason.
If you’re looking for a candidate who is marketable and electable, you could do a lot worse than to bet on Beto.

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Ignore the skeptics. Beto O’Rourke has the policy chops to run for president.

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Maybe the fact that Beto explicitly endorsed Bernie Sanders' own Medicare For All bill while campaigning in TX will quiet down some of the Bernie Bro criticism of Beto's stance on health care...

https://twitter.com/policyjunkie/status/1074336981134520320



Is Beto not pure enough for Bernie Bros because he supports Bernie's own bill? If so, then what is Bernie?

[Florida Man for Crime]

From the deep thinkers at the National Review, this offering:

The Snob Party
Of course the Democrats are still mad for Beto: He is who they are.

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How profound!...

Well, it looks like they are already pivoting to General Election mode. This is probably what we should expect the attack line against Beto to be once it becomes clear that he has won the nomination.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram has an article about whether Beto can beat Trump in Texas. Lots of quotes from various D and R consultant types and some university Professors, with no clear consensus:

https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/bud-kennedy/article223713740.html

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto is starting to have scandals come out. Bernie Bros everywhere rejoice:

Beto O'Rourke Can Never Be President Until He Addresses This Scandal

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[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto launches his version of an exploratory committee - which is a road trip...

Democrat Beto O’Rourke Plans Solo Road Trip to Meet Voters Outside Texas
Texan would visit places like community colleges as he weighs 2020 presidential bid

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The question is, how far will he venture outside of Texas? The problem is if you venture too far from Texas, there start to be fewer and fewer Whataburgers. So Beto might starve, he has to be careful not to drive too far away.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto's road trip has commenced.

https://medium.com/@BetoORourke/a-lot-of-big-trucks-rolling-down-pancake-blvd-and-there-arent-any-sidewalks-699ca6bc7ce8

Here he is behind the wheel, driving around in an automobile like an ordinary American (how populist ):



He stayed at Motel Safari on Route 66 (how populist... the Americana of it all! ):



He saw a wind turbine, so he is thinking about energy policy (how elitist ):



He went and talked to some ordinary Americans at a community college (how populist ):

[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto abandons Liberal Kansas and drives through fog:

https://medium.com/@BetoORourke/this-was-the-most-intense-fog-id-seen-ab0776efa35f

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What a NEW DEMOCRAT, abandoning LIBERAL and instead embracing CONSERVATISM.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto has visited the town of Ulysses Kansas. Interestingly, it has the same bad-ass name as his son.

https://medium.com/@BetoORourke/i-had-been-to-ulysses-kansas-once-before-briefly-312e9dac8011

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Maybe Beto should have gone the Ted Cruz route with the beard. Helps to connect with the rural WWC voters.