Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sinema apparently still up after a dump from Pinal County (heavily R)

916,380 Sinema to 914,369 McSally

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1060689890868785152

[Florida Man for Crime]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true.

Yeah, although FL definitely didn't vote to the left of Wisconsin, like everyone was saying it would.

FL demographic destiny = old whites as well...

[Florida Man for Crime]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

Oryx’s numbers are off, he seems to have miscalculated and gave Cisneros an extra 2k votes.

When I typed this, I thought the Kim +3 was just from Orange County, and the other 2K were from LA.

That still may be the case as far as I know, seems like it has not been confirmed properly which numbers are right, because CA-39 spans 3 different counties which all report separately.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

Grand rapids is trending/swinging Dem. Other than Oakland County and Ann Arbor (and one other tiny county in northern Michigan) it was the only part of Michigan that swung to Clinton.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Who even gives a crap about Florida at this point? Scott is winning. Arizona is where the action is at rn.

[Florida Man for Crime]

That is premature. Hand counts are wild. There's that 23k pile votes in an 85% dem area that is basically a mystery.

23K votes splitting 85%-15% is a margin of about 16,100.

So that is in the general ballpark for a narrow Nelson win, potentially.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on?

The votes are being counted, and Republicans are complaining because they oppose democracy.

It may sound harsh, but it's true.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Can someone explain why it's over if the 23K vote tabulation in a 85-15 Dem area is real and Nelson is down 13K with provisionals still outstanding? Is that too big of an if?

It isn't over, there is an automatic hand recount that is going to happen in which they will figure out what happened with the 85-15 Dem area and the undervotes there.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1060737851426566145?s=21

So if that favors Nelson and the undervotes in Broward pan out, then Nelson probably (?) wins.

Knowing that those overseas ballots are Dem-skewing explains a bit more why Scott was sweating so much at his press conference.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Scott truly deserves to be senator

No candidate deserves to be anything. The only people who deserve anything are the voters, and the voters deserve to have their votes properly counted. Nobody is entitled to political office in a democracy - that is supposed to be up to the will of the people.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So, FWIW...



The part in the red is the part with the undervote. This is the FL-24 part of Broward County.

And the FL-24 part of Broward County voted for Clinton over Trump by 24,237 to 8,010 in 2016 (73.4% to 24.2%).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dzkbgPlIKdp6e8dhWWD2lOsTr537orDNunLRBOTHx2o/edit#gid=255036234

[Florida Man for Crime]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

First of all, try something against your possible dyscalculasia.

All the information in this thread leads to a 15000-20000 = -5000 Scott thus +5000 Nelson estimate.

Note, however, that I posted above that in the FL-24 area of Broward County, the 2016 Presidential vote was Clinton 73.4% to 24.2%. So supposing that there are 23k ballots from that area and they split about 75-25 for Nelson, that would come out to a margin of about 11500, not a margin of 16000.

So that would change your #s to this:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-11500 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 500 votes



Which is much closer. Personally, I do sincerely hope that the final result ends up being Nelson winning by 537 votes. It would be epic karmic justice.

If all your numbers are about correct, then we would be pretty close to that, so I hope that is what happens.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

OK, something about Arizona.

Mark Kelly, an Astronaut from Arizona who previously launched into space from Cape Canaveral in Florida, might potentially run for Senate in Arizona in 2020.

If he does so, he would be the second Senator to have launched into Space from Cape Canaveral in Florida - and depending on the outcome of the 2018 Senate race in Florida, he might serve simultaneously with his colleague Bill Nelson, Senator from Florida who also launched into space from Cape Canaveral. Voters love Spacemen, you know.

Have you had your Arizona fix, and now can we get back to Florida?

[Florida Man for Crime]

I don't even understand what straws the Reps are grasping at. What are the 'improper practices' going on in AZ? Counting votes?

Pretty much. Republicans oppose democracy.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey?

$ was a major factor. Ducey nuked him early and he never had a chance to get going.

[Florida Man for Crime]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make).

[Florida Man for Crime]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member?

[Florida Man for Crime]

That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate.

Ah, sorry.

[Florida Man for Crime]

It would be fantastic to pick up AZ SOS. Get that election administration under Dem control for 2020.

[Florida Man for Crime]

LOL the AP called the SOS race for Gaynor too. Looks like they'll have to retract that if Bucket B cuts into his margin like that.

It seems like there should really be a national law against "calling" races at all until the vote tallies are finalized.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Hmm not much of a boost for Dems in that Cali dump, is that unusual how much did they count?

Eh, Wasserman seems to expect Dems to win even CA-39. Looks like they did not count that many votes today.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061362300043575297

And in CA-45, the R lead dropped 1%, so that is not too bad I wouldn't say.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061361627373731840

[Florida Man for Crime]

I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it.

These conservatives all acting like they got their degrees from Trump U

But I thought that you learn counting in Kindergarten, not in University. At least, I did. Maybe it is different in the rural areas though.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Any reason why the latest OC returns have been less Democratic than the previous couple days? Is it something we should extrapolate from, or is it just noise and we can expect another good batch tomorrow?

I really want Katie Porter to pull this off.

Well if LA County is not at all in the numbers and nonetheless Cisneros gained even anything at all, that should be a very good sign for him. Kim should be winning the OC part of CA-39 for her to have a realistic shot.

More importantly, Cisneros really needs to win.  Somewhere along the line I got more invested in that race than like 80% of competitive house seats.  

I'm not sure how much counting Los Angeles County has done. They don't seem to be on the same regular schedule as Orange County.

Los Angeles County isn't updating until Tuesday afternoon. San Bernardino County is updating on Wednesday.

[Florida Man for Crime]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

"poll" - lol

Anyway, fantastic tightening. Hopefully there are still more ballots to count, and hopefully they are like this batch was. Maybe then it could be a shocker.

I am afraid though that maybe this doesn't include anything from King County or something like that, and they are just waiting to drop the bomb on us. First get our hopes up, and then disappoint.