The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://www.facebook.com/events/280740519219278/

Ojeda is launching his campaign Monday night in Louisville, KY.

Seems like a strange place to launch it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If Ojeda stays in long enough (and especially if he makes it into the debates), I could see him winning a lot of Demosaur protest votes in places like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, north Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I'm rooting for him tbh, not to win the nomination but to raise hell.

Yeah, the funny thing is it is not at all difficult to imagine him even winning the primaries outright in a lot of those states - even if - or especially if, he is not considered a major candidate. Many voters in those states who are registered D simply will not vote for a major Dem candidate associated with the national party, and will literally rather vote for people who are in prison (Obama famously lost the WV primary I think in 2012 to an inmate).

That does mean that even if Ojeda goes absolutely nowhere nationally, he could get a decent delegate haul from Appalachian states, and then have influence that way. I guess if that is his goal, it is not really a bad strategy.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sherrod has put a 2020 thoughts site up on his landing page:
https://www.sherrodbrown.com/landing/w181121/

If anybody needed anymore confirmation that Sherrod Brown really is a straight forward and honest guy, here ya go.

In the end I figure he won't go for it, but he's not gonna play the stereotypical politician and deny he's thinking about it.

I mean, now that the midterms are behind us, aren't they all pretty honest about how they are thinking about it? Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Warren and co all admitted that they are thinking about a presidential run.

But Sherrod Brown is Populist , which means he is inherently more honest.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Also, O'Rourke's only hesitation is not wanting to spend so much more time away from his family:

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So, Beto is obviously running.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Current polling doesn't suggest Harris a frontrunner. I have a feeling she'll be the Democratic Scott Walker.

Yeah, on paper (i.e. demographically) she should be a really strong candidate. But for a Senator from California (which should be enough to get her a few % in the national polls) she is not polling well so far. Of course, the campaign hasn't even started, so she has some time. But she is not going to start out as a front runner. She will have to earn it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The race hasn't started yet and she still doesn't have name recognition that matches Beto's hype. Once she and everyone announces, that will change and her polling numbers will rise. Y'alls hope that she is the next Scott Walker is pretty obviously wishful thinking since she is a formidable opponent to the sacred cow that is Beto. Weren't most of you making fun of Republicans for slamming Beto and accused them of doing so out of fear because they know he'd beat Trump? Well the growing Beto Bro dismissal of Kamala sure looks similar.

For the record, I have no particular problem with Harris at the moment. The only thing I don't particularly like about her is that she is the shortest candidate (only 5 feet 2 inches tall), and that is a minor and pretty negligible electability concern.

My statements with regards to Beto are no more and no less than statements of fact - he will be the nominee.

They are not statements of support, per se (and also are not statements of opposition). I might vote for Beto, but I very well might vote for someone else in the primary.

Regardless, who I support and vote for is all but immaterial to the fact that Beto is the nominee - my single vote won't make a difference amidst the sea of mass Betomania.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Can someone seriously explain the difference betweem klobuchar and bullock? Everyone says klobuchar has no charisma but nut over bullock

Different gender/haircut means that one is a populist and the other is... something else...

[Florida Man for Crime]

Klobuchar says she will announce whether or not she will run for President at that event in Minneapolis that has been noticed (she said so just now on MSNBC after the SOTU).