2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Florida Man for Crime]

If Williams had just gotten a flat-top hair cut, she could have transferred some of the electoral magic from Tester and we wouldn't be having this problem.

She would have had to cut off her fingers as well, which is probably too much of a sacrifice to ask.

[Florida Man for Crime]

OH-12: Dem internal has it tied 47-47

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1055120069175447554

[Florida Man for Crime]

NY-22 (Siena):

Brindisi (D) 46%
Tenney (R) 45%

Source

I'd like to see Brindisi up a bit more, but I'll take it. Any time you have a lead of any sort over an incumbent in a year with a strong national environment for your party, you usually end up winning. And even if you don't have an outright lead, if the incumbent is at 45%, they are in deep trouble at this stage.

[Florida Man for Crime]

We should steal Danny's money and give it to Wallace who actually has a chance.

Good thing the DCCC and DSCC don't follow your advice.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I don't think people are really getting the whole gravity of what's going on around us right now. We are under two weeks away from the election, and we are seeing major stock market downturns (even if they are sporadic day to day and just temporary), and this whole package bomb thing against media and democrats (regardless of who did it), not exactly the strongest way for the GOP to close out in the final days, even if it is not their fault, bad luck happens.

and republicans are the ones who talk about the mob

Not only that, but there are millions of people voting today. While they are standing in the long lines at their early vote location waiting to vote, they are sitting there looking at their phones, reading news headlines like "Stock market plunges, Dow and S&P are now negative for the year."

[Florida Man for Crime]

Democrats go on the offense!

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1055280088432947200

[Florida Man for Crime]

It does seem on the ground like Wagner's race has become quite competitive.

Hopefully McCaskill will carry MO-02 with a decent margin, both for her own sake and for possible coattails.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

There's a pretty big difference between running as a dem in a state with an R +17 pvi and running as a republican in a D +1 district. Comstock could've definitely survived a Clinton midterm, but you're correct: her eventual loss would be inevitable. She would probably go down in 2020, and if not, redistricting would surely get her.

Wow, I didn't realize VA-10 was only D+1 (never really looked closely at it, I guess, or didn't think about it when I did).

[Florida Man for Crime]

NJ-02 (Stockton)

Van Drew 50.1
Grossman 34.7

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1025-cd2-poll-2-screened-wfs.pdf

Pretty nice lead coming from the pollster who had Menendez only +2

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://www.lsu.edu/manship/files/cook_manship_report_final.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Florida Man for Crime]

McLaughlin GCB -

46 D
44 R

Amusingly, 538 adjusts this all the way to D+7, so it is about in line with the average given that it is from McLaughlin

http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/MA-National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-2018.pdf

[Florida Man for Crime]

If even McLaughlin can't find a Republican lead in the GCB, they're done.

Depends on what you mean by "done." There is basically no way they will win the popular vote, but that doesn't mean they can't (in theory) maintain control of the House with yet another minority vote.

[Florida Man for Crime]

We'll see. A movement's importance is inversely proportional to how much time is left to election day.

The GCB has gone down a tad (really about a fraction of a point) only because it is infected with a swarm of junk polls and all the higher quality pollsters are waiting to conduct their polls just before the election. Next week we will get a bunch more polls from everyone, and then the situation will be more clear.

At the moment, the most recent 10 GCB polls is a veritable who's-who of junk pollsters. The most recent GCB polls on 538 are:

YouGov
Suffolk
McLaughlin
Ipsos
Harris
USC
Morning Consult
Harris
Ipsos
Rasmussen

Of those, only a SINGLE ONE (Suffolk) is a high quality phone pollster, and their result was D+8, right in line with what the average has been pretty much forever. Why? Because nobody wants to poll 2 weeks before the election. Everyone wants to poll 1 week before the election. Except for the junk pollsters (generally online or robopoll) that are literally always polling (Reuters, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Harris, Yougov etc).

Over the next week or so, we can expect to get a flood of better quality phone polls from pollsters like Quinnipiac, FOX, CNN, CBS, NBC-WSJ, Pew, Marist, etc.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1055605490393075712

[Florida Man for Crime]

Just a reminder that Change Research is garbage:

https://twitter.com/changepolls/status/1055577115289038848?s=21

Change research is pretty garbagey, but I don't see what is so crazy about 55-39 in NE-01. Trump only won it 57-36, and it voted considerably more for Obama in '12 and '08.