FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

BADA BING

And he is outperforming Nelson (who is only up by 1). Though I guess that is probably more a reflection of the difference between DeSantis and Scott.

Heh, hilarious

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And to think, most on Atlas thought that we needed a centrist, boring candidate

Not really. I think when Gillum won, more people were saying Tossup ---> Tossup.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Have you read "Gillum's chance" thread? Or the FL-Gov thread? Or my joke thread which got taken seriously?

My recollection is there were a lot of sarcastic posts ironically agreeing with your joke, and a bunch of people empty quoting Tossup ---> Tossup

Some people did clearly agree that Gillum was much weaker, but it didn't seem to me like a clear majority.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

All better praise future Governor-elect Gillum for dragging Nelson across the finish line on election day.

Someone Should Make a Meme out of this post

Brilliant, A++

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's one poll; you really shouldn't make broad proclamations about how the candidates are going to perform with sub-samples based on that. Nevertheless, if we're going to do that, it's important to note that even white voters in the poll are going to have a MoE of +/- 5 points or so; among minority groups, even larger. Even within the same poll, fluctuations in candidates' numbers that are statistically significant can occur.

Gillum is not Abrams. Gillum has barely been on the radar of most Florida primary voters until a few weeks ago; among a GE electorate, practically nonexistent. He has had neither the resources nor attention necessary to produce any statistically-significant difference with minority voters up until this point. it's likely just noise, with perhaps a tiny uptick due to the favorable news cycle in the few days before the poll.

Just as an example, Gillum has roughly the level of Latino support that Nelson pulled in 2012 - the fact that this poll shows Nelson losing 5 points of Latino support compared to 2012 (despite FL's Latino electorate becoming more Democratic) tells you all you need to know about the level of preciseness that cross-tabs from a single poll provide. In practically every state, analyzing Latino crosstabs in particular is a pretty futile exercise.

And as far the white vote equivalents...yeah, in these two particular match-ups, they probably will end up being comparable. Nelson is a polarizing federal figure who has had plenty of time for his sheen to wear off among Panhandle voters and the like. Graham - who won a district so Republican that it wasn't even on most people's radars, and in a GOP wave year no less - would have undoubtedly overperformed Nelson with white voters in her pursuit of running for a statewide office rather than a federal one (especially considering how well she did among those Panhandle whites when running and winning a prior federal office).

In the end, Gillum will win more black voters than Nelson; Graham would've won more white voters than Nelson. Whether either would produce a significant net advantage is unclear, but I'm betting it wouldn't. Graham could've done just 2 points better than Nelson among whites and it'd produce the same benefit as Gillum doing 5 points better among non-whites (and you can't max out the black vote much more and Cubans still put a hard ceiling on Latino support).

Good post.