Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[AndrewTX]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

[AndrewTX]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

I'm considering mainly the fact that in 2004 and 2006, you saw Diane Farrell everywhere this time of year. Most of the people I know dont even know who Jim Himes is, which isnt a very good thing for the democrats in the district.