TN-Hart Research (D): Bredesen +10, above 50%

[brand_allen]

The link notes that Bredesen is carrying Independents by 20 points, and picking off about one in five Republicans.

If a Democrat is going to win in the 2018 version of Tennessee, that's how they do it.

(Side note: I was a little astounded to see that he carried 42% of the Republican vote in his 2006 victory, per CNN exit polling. Then again, he carried 69% of the overall vote that year).

[brand_allen]

Lean R -> Tossup.
Polling consistently has Bredesen ahead, but the risk remains that TN voters will come home to the GOP and Strickland/Bayh/Thompson Bredesen.

Seems like a reasonable rating change. Across five polls conducted since March, Bredesen averages a  47-41% advantage, and leads Blackburn in all five polls by margins ranging from one to ten points.

Axios/Survey Monkey, 4/2-23, D+1
Mason-Dixon, 4/17-19, D+3
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen), 4/9-11, D+10
Middle TN State Univ., 3/22-29, D+10
PPP, 3/15-16, D+5