Bush will pick a woman to replace O'Connor

[angus]

ladies and gentlemen, you are all honored by the presence of a wise and studied poster with a somewhat enigmatic username.  Welcome back, jmfcst.

I disagree though, and would call estrada a longshot based on the possiblity of dissention of members of the senate.  It will be J. Harvie Wilkinson, III, once a law clerk to Justice Lewis F. Powell, Jr., and is a respected author on both modern Virginia political history and the federal judiciary. He was appointed to the appeals court in 1984 by Reagan and was for seven years its chief judge.  Not that Barbara Boxer and her constituents will like Wilkinson any better, but Estrada's name has too much baggage for Bush at the moment.

[angus]

brief bio sketch:

http://air.fjc.gov/servlet/tGetInfo?jid=2587

[angus]

well, as a strategy to court hispanics, he looks good on paper, but already he's stirred up quite the vitriol from democrats who don't want Bush to beat them to that punchline.  And senate races are often driven by statewide, not national, events.  Anyway the '06 republicans you should be worried about are not from Florida.  They're from New England, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.  Granted, I may have been unduly influenced by the manhattan free alt weeklies (bird-cage liner, but hey, they're free), still Russ Smith is no mouthpiece for the anti-Bushies.  I'll try to dig up the Smith article I read recently,  meanwhile here's an exerpt from a recent village voice column ("Mondo Washington") by James Ridgeway.  

"...By all odds the most prominent, the 60-year-old Wilkinson was appointed to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia, by President Reagan in 1984 and served as chief judge from 1996 to 2003. Born in New York, he clerked for Justice Lewis Powell and worked in the Reagan administration as deputy assistant attorney general in the civil rights division. Wilkinson ran for Congress from Virginia in the early '70s and lost. Then he became editorial-page editor at the Norfolk Virginian-Pilot. He has been a professor at the University of Virginia, his alma mater. The Fourth Circuit is not only conservative but the home base for the military. And Wilkinson can be counted on to defer to the Pentagon, especially when it comes to the war on terror. It was no surprise that this judge led the Court of Appeals in ruling that Yaser Hamdi, an American citizen captured in battle in Afghanistan, could be held indefinitely without access to a lawyer. The Supreme Court had to restrain Wilkinson and overturned that decision. Wilkinson has opposed affirmative action and the Violence Against Women Act. Wilkinson's supporters argue that he is no rubber-stamp ideologue but rather a pragmatic conservative who might end up following in the steps of Sandra O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy, as opposed to Thomas and Scalia..."

[angus]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

[angus]

I agree with your last post.  and to clarify, I thought Frist, Chaffee, and Santorum were up for re-election in seats widely regarded as very competitive.

Chafee and Santorum are extremely competitive.

Frist is retiring, fulfilling his two-term pledge.  If he were running again, his seat would not be competitive.  I question whether his seat will be competitive anyways, regardless of who runs (it is Tennessee).

I'd think the volunteer state would be very competitive.  this is one of the few places where a sitting vice president actually lost his home state.  Don't take anything for granted.  The contenders are Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R), a very McCain-esque republican.  I know the Tennessee Republicans are just arrogant enough to say that "ford will lose" but don't count on Wamp not screwing up.  As for the other two, I've read enough to think that they're competitive as well, but the GOP is ready to spend some money so get ready for some serious nastiness.

sorry, for the distraction.  I return you to your supreme court discussion.



"My plan is coming together nicely . . ."
     ---Advisor Karl Rove

[angus]

can't say I know much about tennessee.  except it's a fine place to look for the ghost of elvis, and the place where martin luther king, jr. was shot.  still, I'd think any democrat had a decent shot of winning tennessee.  "populist" is the term that seems to be all the rage on the forum, lately.

"seems like everyone here's got a plan
it's kind of like nashville with a tan"
        --Shawn Mullins (from Lullaby, referring to L.A.)

[angus]

The NYT dedicated the ENTIRE UPPER HALF of the first page of their print edition this morning to Justice O'Connor, her role, and the major decisions of the SC during her tenure.  They also dedicated a good bit of the lower half as well.  Pretty much the first page of the saturday edition is dedicated to one story!  This has happened, as I recall, only once in the entire time since the week immediately following September 11, 2001.  And that was when the Mighty Boston Red Sox (nee Stockings) opened up a delicious and surprising can of whoop-ass on the Damn Yankees.  Judging by the NYT, the boob tube, and just about every mindless yapping dog in the blogosphere, we're in for an exciting summer.  It's gonna be nasty, boys and girls.  In-your-face excitement.  Better than a Charles Bronson movie.  The republicans will nominate a well-qualified candidate.  The dems will play dirty.  The GOP will get even dirtier.  And it'll just keep getting better and better.  Nastiness on top of nastiness on top of nastiness.  sweeeeet.  Junkies, you are in for a real treat.  Ferocious ringside excitement as each side in our delightfully corrput two-party system will claim moral leverage over the other.  Who'll cave first?  Which interest-group will get rich the quickest from the obligaory donations and pledges?  The NRA?  NARAL?  The Sierra Club?  Mothers Against Drunk Driving?  Drunks Against Madd Mothers?  The Dead Kennedies?  And with two more retirements expected before King George II retires from public life, this promises to be a festive, fun-filled next couple of years at the forum.  So much excitement, so little time.  I'd love to give you a play-by-play, starting today even, but I'm packing up my yankee doodle boy and my not-so-yankee doodle little ol' lady and heading down below ye olde Mason'n'Dixon's line to a little place I like to call Maryland, the outer suburbs of our nation's capital to be more precise, to enjoy the 229th anniversary of the occassion during which our forefathers gave those imperialist english bastards the proverbial middle finger.  We'll be spending some time with some folks from the far east, and I'll be the odd(white) man out in this bit of cookie-cutter bourgeoisie.  Hanging out during the holiday with some long-time friends from Boston.  East Asians.  Newly-minted US citizens, in fact, who likely will neither know nor care who Sandra Day O'Connor is.  With any luck I'll not see a TV nor a computer before Tuesday.  But I'll be with youze all in spirit.  Have fun debating.  May the be$t man win.  Au revoir.