Well, I had communicated to Al privately to say that there is surprisingly little interest in Canadian elections here, compared to US interest in say Iraq, Germany, UK, etc., given that Canada is our number-one trading partner. At least the sheer volume of print media and televised media stories is quite low it seems. So I've done some homework to answer some of my own questions. First, gay marriage is a HUGE issue in this campaign. Stephen Harper (Conservative Leader) has promised to hold a "free vote" in the House of Commons on the issue if he forms a government. This likely has given CPC an edge. Because unlike the U.S. system, Canadian parliament members (MPs) are expected to vote the party line. Harper maintains that the traditional definition of marriage of one man + one woman can be restored by a "free vote" wherein under unusual circumstances MPs are released to vote their consciences. However, many constitutional experts disagree with Harper. They think any move to end same-sex marriage will require use of a device called the "notwithstanding clause" (which overrules part of the Charter of Rights in our constitution.) Not easy to do. Nevertheless Harper and his Conservative colleagues are playing up the issue it seems.
Also, relationships with the United States have been and remain a huge issue. Harper says he will "...improve relations between Canada and the United States, which comprise the world's largest trading bloc and conduct some $1.5 billion in business daily," according to WaPo Beth Duff-Brown, and it's probably a safe bet that although the Bushies are reticent to make public pronouncements, they would like to see a CPC victory, especially given the outcry from the Bush Administration's ambassador to Canada over Martin's well-publicized photo-op with Clinton during a Kyoto follow-up conference in Montreal early in the campaign. It should also be noted that Harper wants to spend more on Canada's military, expand its peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan and tighten security along the border with the United States to stop terrorists and guns from crossing. No doubt the GOP likes the tune he's singing.
Promises of reform on Social Welfare, health care, childcare, crime and other programs also seem to have affected the allegiances, and this, coupled with the fact that MPs are under such constraints to vote the party line (again, unlike in the USA) that we have a pretty good explanation of the shifts.
Of course there could be other explanations for a mass shifts to CPC. A cow from Alberta just tested positive for Mad Cow disease yesterday.
The official prediction can be found in today's New York Times. All the news that's fit to print.
"And then some."
--Jayson Blair
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/AP-Canada-Election.htmlStill, whether there's any real shift at the ballot box is another issue. We'll just have to wait for the reporting won't we?
Keep it here, Al.
The globe and mail also has some good reporting, just FYI.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
