Is America safer and more powerful than it was four or five years ago?

[angus]

Is America safer and more powerful than it was four or five years ago?

yes.

As for the Fox News Poll, it's politically driven, and I have nothing to say for or against it except that you can word any question in a way that gives you the answer you want to hear.  

But specifically for your thread question, which I quoted, I'll say yes, and I'll also say that I am surprised, because ever since I was very young I thought we were going downhill.  I still think we're going downhill in most ways, but I have to admit that if you only look at the last five years, and if you only consider our national security, all the evidence suggests that we are safer.  For example, 2012 was the safest year for airlines since 1945.  FDIC now insures banks to deposits of 250K, which is 2.5 times more than it was five years ago.  Homicide rates are actually down in the really dangerous cities (Philadelphia, Detroit, DC) compared to 2009, and fatal terrorist attacks on US soil are down by about 30% since 2009.

But that's a bit like looking at the mean global temperature from the period beginning June 1991 and ending June 1993 and saying that the mean global surface temperature is cooling.  You can pick a short period and say that, for sure, but it doesn't imply that the mean global surface temperature is decreasing.  Similarly, taking a five-year sample of arrests, prosecutions, NSA reports, and other measures of security and saying that America is growing more powerful.  Sure, the trend is up if your window is short enough, but that's an unorthodox way of trying to analyze a serious trend which has long-term ramifications.  We are an empire in decline, despite the fact that there are occasional upticks in some specific measures.

[angus]

recovered from the recession

?!

We're more secure by many measures, so there's really no reason to make things up.

[angus]

Yes, I'm sure that we're all aware that by the Haav'd economists' measures, the "Great Recession" ended in June 2009.  Seriously, though, do you find it necessary to point that out in this thread.  First, since polling data inspired the thread, consider that about 2/3 of the public doesn't feel that the recession is over.  Second, consider that restaurants report about a 13% lower per-capita rate in sales for fourth-quarter 2013 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008.  Third, consider the fact that the average house price in 2013 is about the same as it was in 2009, and actually about 1% lower than it was in 2008.  Most importantly, consider the fact that the national unemployment rate is about seven percent, which is about the same as it was exactly five years ago, and higher than it was in 2008.  

Sure, my stocks have rebounded.  I'm up from where I was five years ago, and the DJIA closed today just over 16 thousand, which is considerably higher than its close five years ago.  That's a leading indicator, no doubt, and it suggests that things are moving back to making films about Gay Robots finding a brain, while Poland and the rest of the world gets invaded.  Still:  Have you lost a job?  Been kicked out of your house?  Had to stand in a bread line?  No?  Neither have I, but let's not be insensitive to those who have, and who still do.  Just now, we are about six years into a ten-year recession.  I don't disagree that we are "more secure and more powerful" than we were five years ago as a nation--I still say that over the long term we are a crumbling empire and that this whole thread is an exercise in mental masturbation, but I was up front in my recognition that if you only look at five years and only look at security measures, we're up from five years ago--but don't tell me that we're back in black.  We are not.  Our unemployment rate is high, our national debt continues to rise, and our morale is low.  Those are not the hallmarks of long term sustainability.  

[angus]

I appreciate your response.

I actually wasn't reading Obamania or Obamaphobia into this.  I just read it in the abstract:  are we more safe now?  Trends show that we are (strictly in terms of security and strictly over five years.)

Whether or not the American president is to blame or to credit is an open question.  I have been arguing on this forum for at least ten years that we give too much credit or blame to the president for most things.  We credit (or blame) him for everything from the cost of a loaf of bread to the severity of our latest orgasm.  It's really not fair.  Obama didn't cause this recession, and in my opinion neither did Bush.  And neither of them should be credited for its eventual recovery, which I contend is still in the making.

I agree about True Strength, so I won't comment on that.

As for my general tendency for long-term predictions of collapse, I always hope I am wrong, even as I post them.  I do think we're in a huge mess of our own making, and I think things will probably get worse before they get better, but I certainly think that it is possible that things will get better.  It will never get better if the only questions we ask are those that we ask on this forum.  Hopefully our politicians are asking each other more important questions than the ones they let us hear about on the national news.

[angus]

As for my general tendency for long-term predictions of collapse, I always hope I am wrong, even as I post them.  I do think we're in a huge mess of our own making

Federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is higher than real GDP growth. Housing, tuition, healthcare are still rising rapidly or holding at historic highs. The short term is obviously FUBAR.

If you understand that the long-run forecast is also grim, how could you possibly vote "yes"?

It was grim five years ago as well, for starters.  Also, five years ago our armies were stretched beyond optimum capacity and military morale was exceedingly low.  Consumer confidence was lower than it is now, and so was the DJIA.  The unemployment rate was higher then than now.  The co-operation from NATO partners is a little better now.  Osama bin Laden is no longer hiding out making video tapes.  I just feel like our national security now is better than it was five years ago.  Not all of that is due to government policy, but much of it is.