What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[angus]

PA, definitely.  If we lose that it's gonna be tough.

I always though the far east and far west of that state would carry it for the Democrats for one more go 'round.  After that, watch out!

[angus]

Union brainwashing. The Unions tell them they are for them and really are not. Unions are the most outdated organization in the U.S. right now.

Don't evn try to tell me that the GOP will stand up for the coal miners.  That's a joke.

Neither party will. The Unions just use and abuse their members. Legalized mafia.

Dems will stand up for the unions before the GOP will.  You think Gephardt wouldn't have stood up for them?

They sure as hell didn't stand up for Gephardt this year.

[angus]

warner embodies the worst possible combination.  economically populist, as well as authoritarian leftist.  very frustrating.  At least he's somewhat moderate on both counts.

[angus]

Virginia's changed. The old Conservative Democrats in Southern VA are dying off and are being replaced by Populist "Warner" Democrats who are less likely to vote split.
Meanwhile the DC suburbs keep growing and keep growing more liberal.

Loudon County, VA went 85% for Regan.  It'll go 45% to Bush this time.  2000 was the last time that the GOP will win Fairifax County, VA.  Bush may win Virginia Beach in 04 but if so only with like 45%.  It's a national trend.  The GOP has lost a lot of ground in suburbs.  Gun control, immigration and the like.

this is all very interesting

[angus]

I don't know as much about the upper south as you people do, but I don't know any serious handicapper who colors virginia anything other than whatever color they're using for Republicans.  I hope the GOP doesn't waste too much money in virginia as there are much more vulnerable pickings for the democrats such as Ohio and New Hampshire.

[angus]

yes, robert e. lee's immediate homeland is DNC country.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.  n'est-ce pas?

the anti-paradox

[angus]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

True. I don't see Bush winning Fairfax County this year... His main hope of hanging on to VA is rural Northern Virginia, the Richmond Outer suburbs and Virginia Beach

I actually find it surprising that Bush won Fairfax county, and maybe it goes to show my ignorance of the VA burbs.  That's the thing about the DC Metro: Maryland people (like I was) hardly ever cross the Patomic.  The Maryland side (PG and Monty) has always been rabidly Democrat, so I've always assumed the the VA side was as well.  Maybe it's just history catching up with them.

Still see no way Bush loses VA in 2004.

if al or rwn find themselves in the sf bay area in November and have a thousand dollars that wants to turn into two thousand dollars, let them bring it with them.

[angus]

well, I suppose I'm making up words, but 'the opposite of a paradox' is what I was going for.  If I put you to sleep in 1859, and woke you up a hundred fifty years later, you'd say, look northern virginia is still dnc country.  that sort of thing.  "the more things change, the more they stay the same" is a common quebecois saying.

[angus]

New Hampshire. It's a lot less pro-OIF than other Bush states, I'd guess, in line with other states in this region.  Plus, it does help that Kerry is from MA.  I'm not terribly worried, but it wouldn't shock me if he lost NH.

I'm a little slow today.  what's OIF?

[angus]

yes, I see.  thank you.  I'd say NH based on the reasons NHpolitico mentions, and others.  for Kerry, I still say NM.

[angus]

yes, I see.  thank you.  I'd say NH based on the reasons NHpolitico mentions, and others.  for Kerry, I still say NM.

NH is not a major loss for Bush. He should be concerned primarily with Florida, Ohio, Colorado,  Arizona, WV, and Nevada in that order. NH, although it is the most probable state to switch, would be far less significant.

florida?  arizona?  nevada?  pinch yourself just to make sure you're awake

[angus]

at least you all now agree on economic motivation.  that's a relief.