Future voting patterns....

[angus]

Lots of incredibly rich folks in New England and the middle atlantic Rightwingnut.  Hard to imagine that the Dems will hold sway over that region en mass, without some a priori notion of how the two major parties will evolve.  

[angus]

Great map.  I think that Texas and Florida will gain 3, California will lose 1, Ill, PA and NY will all lose 2.  Texas will remain solidly Republican.  PA will treand more republican because the New Deals will be dead and gone and young entrepenurial(sp) types will take their place and I will be governor of North Carolina which will still trend Republican.  

And Paul Bremer will have found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.  

[angus]

 Supersoulty that's a good point.  Sixty years ago NY had twice as many electoral votes as CA, now CA has nearly twice as many as NY.  And American Airlines, worlds largest carrier, moved from Chicago, IL to Fort Worth, TX in the late 90s.  But it's more of a Westward, or Southwesterly trend, I think.  Maybe that's nitpicking.  It brings up the point about how the Kerry people like to suggest they don't need any states in "The South" because Republicans racked up victories without winning any of those states for almost a hundred years!  But back in those days that region had only about 20% of the total, whereas now it may be more like 30 to 35% of the total, depending on what you count.

I am curious as to why you keep suggesting Atlanta though.  At first, I thought it was an obvious reference to Futurama (New New York, the lost city of Atlanta, etc.)  But now I going to go out on a limb and assume you're serious.  Why Atlanta, Georgia?

[angus]

Just for the record and in case no one has pointed it ou CA is trending conservitive...

This has been repeatedly pointed out.  But thanks.

[angus]

Nick,
I was not speaking about Schwarzennegger.  I do not regard him as particluarly liberal or conservative, but rather in the middle by California standards.  In any case, I certainly didn't vote for him (though I may next time.)  I moved here about three years ago, and as everyone knows I'm a serious archconservative.  So there's at least one more Bush vote in CA than last time.  No, one data point does not make a trend.  But consider all the unemployed twenty-something codewriting geeks laid off in '00 and'01.  Most will move Back East to live with mommy and daddy till their emotional maturity catches up with their educational maturity.  They will take their Albert Gore pseudoliberalism with them.  Thus the trend.  

[angus]

I think the carolinas, louisiana, texas, and florida will also be exceptions to your coastal rule.  And Alaska, of course.  Your SW exception is based, I assume, on the assumption of continued exploitation of minorities by the Democrats.  I don't think that will last, but its just a guess.

[angus]

good point.  I just looked it up and Hartsfield airport is the busiest in the nation.  But most of that's connecting traffic.  Miami is too likely to be blown away by rain and wind, New Orleans is an HIV-infested dungpit where 20 bucks will get you a pretty good time, and Houston is a place where you're more likely to be shot than robbed.

I'd guess Dallas for the center of commerce for the SxSW region in the long run.  Its growth rate is phenomenal, there are no mountains or oceans nearby to inhibit its sprawl.  It is very white-collar friendly and pro-business.  Probably as much or more so than Atlanta.  And it doesn't have all the historical baggage of Atlanta.  (well, there was that famous bullet which killed two people.  grassy knoll anyone?  LOL)  Basically, it was a shack on the trinity river in 1830.  Now its a futuristically magnificient Oz of glass and steel.  No BS.  I was living in north Arlington when the famous landmark Cotton Exchange was destroyed to make room for a big glass high-rise.  Lots of protests, but none with the bigs bucks to stop the developers.  My kinda republicans.

[angus]

Gustaf,
If you look at the last eight contests, it's 4 of 8.  That's a little selective, as most talking heads go back ten contests.  In that case it is 6D and 4R.  If you go way back it is more GOP.  I guess you'd have to define 'trending republican'  But in 3 of the last 3 elections its votes went to the Democrat, so a GOP victory this year doesn't mean a trend.  I note that in '92 Perot got almost 19% there and in '96 he got over 8 percent.  It is easy to overanalyze Pennsylvania.  and fun.  and futile.

opebo,
most static = indiana.

[angus]

Supersoulty,

the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third.

And that's the truth.  See, for example, even though none of my grandparents were born in this country, and even though I had folks on both sides of World War II, I am one-hundred percent American.  If you can get past calling yourself a quarter of this, or two tablespoons of that, then you can be a republican too.

[angus]

I think his legal expertease recommends him much better to the judiciary rather than the executive branch, but then I'm not a lawyer.  He is a well-respected man, but unfortunately he hasn't passed muster with certain members of the senate judiciary committee.

[angus]

Orrin Hatch has introduced a bill addressing that.  

[angus]

Oh, let me see if I can dig up a link.  Basically I was referring to his newfound fondness for Gov. Schwarzennegger.  So he wants to amend the US Constitution so that foreign-born citizens of the USA can be elected President.  I don't know whether it has any realistic chance of getting through the pipeline, though.