swing states 2008?

[angus]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

the state of New York.

You heard it here first.  You heard it here correctly.

[angus]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Nice sig, man.  With just a little weed buzz, you can definitely see a Tyrannosaurus Rex there.  If you stare at the Cape too long, it begins to look like Albertosaurus though.   Whoa.

[angus]

wait, it's a ing Jackrabbit. 

Okay, yeah, a rabbit.

[angus]

Most of you are making a VERY big mistake...

You're assuming that the 2004 results reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S

They do not.

They reflect the geographical polarisation of the U.S towards George W Bush and nothing more.

Here's an example: Bush won 65% in Oklahoma, winning every single county (some were very close, but that's neither here nor there).
In the Senate race, the Republicans held the state but won 53%. The Democratic candidate won about 30 counties, including some that voted for Bush by a landslide.
And in the open OK-2 congressional district, the Democrats held it with 66%, winning every county in the district.

Here's another example: Kerry won 43% in WV, Manchin was elected Governer with 63% and (according to the exit polls) 50% of the people who voted in WV were Democrats.

Presidential Elections never, ever reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S.
They are between two candidates from two parties with massive variations between different members.

I don't know which states will be the swing states in 2008... it's possible that some states will flip from voting solidly for Bush/Kerry to voting solidly for the GOP/Dem nominee without going through a swing phase.

Here's a question for you all:

If (bear with this) the Democrats nominated Gene Taylor, and the GOP nominated Bill Weld, what would a map look like?

that was exactly my point last night.  sure, it was hard to make through the fog of smoke and stench of the Maker's Mark Kentucky Bourbon, but in the light of day, and the pounding of my head, I repeat:  these predictions are based on faulty assumptions.

Mine was more along the lines of a Giuliani vs Edwards vein, but the general impression remains valid.  Any state, except maybe DC, ID, UT, and WY, can be a swing state.

[angus]

you know, if you get a W tattooed on each cheek, then when you bend over it'll spell WOW. 

welcome to the forum dude

[angus]

Tell that to past Republican nominees Pat Buchanan and John McCain.

Geographically though, there is basically no way Guiliani could win the nomination. He'd basically have to write off Iowa, unless one honestly believes Iowa Republicans would readily embrace a socially liberal playboy from the northeast with an anti-gun record as thick as a phonebook. And as soon as South Carolina came around (he obviously wouldn't do well there), any momentum he had would be gone.

wasn't sure the post would be understood, but I can tell from your reply that you did understand the gist of it.  yeah, I selectively didn't mention Iowa, for the reasons you state.  Also, I'm not sure Iowans can cross-over and vote in another party's primary the way New Hampshire folks can.  Not too sure about SC either.  But in those states where it is possible, there is a history of folks doing it just to fuzzy the nomination process, stretch it out.  And if it were, say, Rudy and some Charleton Heston-approved GOP guy in front, many Dems might just try to vote Rudy in a GOP primary just to stretch it out.  Hard call, though.

[angus]

If Giuliani runs for the GOP, does that turn NY into a swing state?

How about Giuliani vs. Hillary?

that's the subtext. 

My hard-earned (yeah, right) money is on Rudy!

[angus]

daddy, junior, and bro?

pretty creepy, even for hard-core plutocrats, don't ya think?