2020 Montana Statewide Elections Megathread

[Heir of Camelot]

Interesting takes.

I think Cooney has a good chance. I wish Bullock would pull the trigger and make the Senate race interesting.

Kathleen Williams does not excite me. Her vanilla, consultant driven campaigns are boring and lame. Tom Winter needs a wife before he will break through with Montana voters haha (it's a thing here, it's his number one googled search as he pointed out on twitter today).

I hope Fox beats Gianforte. The body slammer needs to just go away already and stop embarrassing the state.

[Heir of Camelot]

Interesting takes.

I think Cooney has a good chance. I wish Bullock would pull the trigger and make the Senate race interesting.

Kathleen Williams does not excite me. Her vanilla, consultant driven campaigns are boring and lame. Tom Winter needs a wife before he will break through with Montana voters haha (it's a thing here, it's his number one googled search as he pointed out on twitter today).

I hope Fox beats Gianforte. The body slammer needs to just go away already and stop embarrassing the state.

Thoughts on the D primary for governor? I feel like Cooney (and Gianforte) would win by a high single digit margin if the election were held today, but it’s still relatively early.

I think Cooney probably pulls it out but Williams in using her Hollywood and DC contacts to raise gobs of money so it's not quite in the bag. She has the family name thing going for her and a lot of female Dems right now are inclined to pull the lever for a female candidate no matter what. I'm hearing from folks though that her spending most of her adult life outside of Montana and running for the top job right out of the gate kind of reeks of entitlement and is turning some off her candidacy. I did some research and she was HRC's Fundrasing chair (which explains the fundraising prowess) and she's a member of the CFR (Council on Foreign Relations, insert your favorite conspiracy theory here).

I'm voting for Cooney personally because I think he has a much better shot to win with his decades in local politics (Plus I can already hear the Hillary Clinton association attack ads that would be aimed at WW) but there is a lot of talk in some circles about Democrats voting in the Republican primary instead to try and prevent Gianforte from getting the nomination. Which would make the Dem primary a bit of a wild card (as you can't vote in both).

[Heir of Camelot]

The only way Cooney wins if Bullock jumps into race, Daines is gonna pull the GOP candidate for Gov with 65 percent of the vote.

Bullock fools us again, by contemplating running for Senate. TX is more winnable than MT

There is no way in hell Gianforte gets 65% of the vote even if Cooney drops dead. Montana has had Dem Govs for 16 years straight now and they were both extremely popular. It's a purple state that's notorious for ticket splitting, this isn't Idaho. Bullock won by 5 even as Trump won by 20.

Also Daines in not popular, he's actually underwater in his favorability polls. The guy spent independence day in Moscow FFS. He has just never faced a worthy opponent at all but you know the saying, it's better to be lucky than good. I could actually see Trump winning by 10-15 points, Daines winning by 7-10 and Cooney the Democrat winning by less than one point in an all-night nail biter that isn't officially announced until the next day. Fox would probably win but Gianforte will bury him with his money and Trumpland connections. If Gianforte wins the state would be incredibly screwed and I think most moderate Repubs get that.

[Heir of Camelot]

^He’s either a troll or bot, so I wouldn’t bother responding to him.

But yeah, as a Republican you couldn’t design a better Democratic opponent in Williams if you tried (she’s literally the caricature of the kind of Democrat that doesn’t play well anywhere in the state except maybe Bozeman and some more affluent legislative districts in Missoula and Helena which swung Democratic in 2016). It honestly baffles me that any Democrat would even consider supporting her in the primary, and while I could see myself supporting Cooney in the general under certain circumstances (he’s way too rabidly pro-choice for me and obviously a pretty partisan Dem in general, but I think he’d make a better governor than Bullock and there’s zero chance he’d run for Senate in 2026/2030, so yeah), I’d never even entertain voting for Williams.

Cooney being more #populist and less shrill/neoliberal makes him a better general election candidate for Montana even without Williams' baggage/background. I agree with your all-nighter prediction for Cooney vs. Gianforte, but I have Gianforte coming out on top by <2 points. For president my prediction is Trump +13-15, for Senate Daines +8-16 (there’s still quite some uncertainty in the Senate race as far as the margin is concerned, but in terms of competitiveness, the ship has probably sailed for Democrats).

Great take. If the Repubs want to insure they get the Governor's mansion I think Fox is your guy. I have to admit he came to Kalispell and I am weirdly mancrushing a little bit. He reminds me of the old school "compassionate conservative" republicans who I grew up respecting. I noticed Marc Racicot endorsed him and is campaigning for him. The Racicot family are family friends of ours and I am still tight with his brother Chris. If it came down to Fox vs. Williams I would be seriously tempted by Fox. Shrill Neoliberals don't do it for me either. Plus WW bashing on Bullock recently was not a good look at all. I kinda wish she'd go back to California to be honest LOL. Even though her dad is basically sainted. She's been gone so long she doesn't really get the state anymore.

[Heir of Camelot]

Interesting. Supposedly there is a divide between Schweitzer and Bullock/Cooney/Tester. I am still trying to figure how Schweitzer won such a landslide in his reelection. He won all but 4 counties. That seems like fantasy.

[Heir of Camelot]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

[Heir of Camelot]

I think that's probably his plan but I don't really like his chances. His style rubs some the wrong way (ie. posting on Social Media every 15 minutes, being a Missouri transplant, not doing retail politics, not shaving, being unmarried, doing a Tinder profile for his campaign etc).

Had he gotten 30-40% of the vote I'd say he would be a favorite but getting curb stomped this hard (I think he got blown out more than any other statewide race) is a pretty strong repudiation from Montanans. KW is not that well liked either. Also he had a weird "October surprise" in the form of a picture at a Trump rally in '16 grinning like an idiot in an Uncle Sam costume and his explanation about it was not very convincing (he said he was there to protest, *cough bullsh**t).

Plus he only served one session in the State House before jumping to run for Congress and he'll be 3 years removed by that point. His following seems to be young people and progressives (who are notorious for not voting in primaries). By 22' there will be other rising stars like Bryce Bennett and Raph Graybill to contend with and likely a golden boy or girl from the state legislature who will rise to prominence in this election while he's sitting at home posting about his dog.

[Heir of Camelot]

She ran a very compelling primary campaign in '18 where she traveled around the state to every county with her dog in an old Winnebago and she was polling third and then pulled off a huge upset and won the primary (I voted for her). Then she hired a bunch of Clintonistas from the Hillary campaign and ran the most boring, vanilla, consultant driven campaign that I've ever seen in Montana politics and blew a golden opportunity to knock off Gianforte before he became entrenched. In a year when she had a massive blue wave and Tester's coattails she seemed to be content to sleepwalk to second place.

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

[Heir of Camelot]

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

I don't know why but I had a good laugh with that.

Yeah check this pic out. .

https://www.facebook.com/WilliamsForMontana/photos/a.423439012260/379283782260/?type=3&theater

[Heir of Camelot]

The other reason I think Tom Winter is screwed (and I voted for him) is he went against the MDP and went rogue in his decision to run for Congress. A lot of people worked their ass off to help him flip his seat in the Montana State House and then felt betrayed when he jumped so quickly after a single term. He's only 32 so it came across as being impulsive and hasty. His seat will most likely flip back to Republicans this cycle.

I know from a reliable source that the head of MDLCC absolutely unloaded on him when he informed them he was bailing. So he doesn't really have the support of the State Party anymore. They have ways of tanking your candidacy when you lose their support. Whisper campaigns etc. He also mispronounces Montana which is a cardinal sin here and definitely cost Maryland Matt in his race.

I honestly think he'd have a better shot running for Congress in his native Missouri. Most of his campaign fundraising came form there.

[Heir of Camelot]

AG is an interesting race. Typically it's lean or likely R but Graybill is kind of the golden boy. He was Bullock's chief legal counsel, he's from Great Falls, which is key. If he can tap into some of that Bullock magic he can win. He has a nice family, he's handsome and he's a Montana native so he definitely has a shot. I would say Tossup best case but more likely Tilt R.

[Heir of Camelot]

Shane Morigeau has a shot to win State Auditor too since he's running against Crazy California Troy Downing.

[Heir of Camelot]

There is a strong nativist streak here. There is a trope in Montana about rich out of staters moving in and buying huge ranches and then denying public access to the rivers and streams (cough* Greg Gianforte) and then running for office  and blowing their opponents away with their money advantages (Greg again).

It's created a certain resentment among people who were born and raised here and had to develop a strong sense of community and rugged resourcefulness to survive.

[Heir of Camelot]

Montanans pronounce it Mon-TAN-a, (as in I just got a tan)
Maryland Matt (or my new favorite nickname, Rosenfail) pronounces it Mon-TAWN-a (like tawny)
Tom Winter (form Missouri) pronounces it Mon-TAE-na (like table)

These things matter more than you would guess. Montanans have their own unique accent as well that is most noticeable on words like bag (Bayg) and dragon (Dre-gon). We kind of drag the a sound.

[Heir of Camelot]

Very much so. That's how Democrats are able to win here. The mantra on campaigns is "don't nationalize your race."

[Heir of Camelot]

Quist had other problems. He allowed his opponent and the RNC and affiliate groups, with an assist from the Billings Gazette's Tom Lutey to define him negatively in voters minds before he had a chance to make his own case. Not being a career politician hurt him. Also Gianforte's body slam happened after most of the vote had already been cast so it's effect was minimal (amplified by Sinclair Broadcasting, which own most MT affiliates, refusal to even air it).

He hit all the benchmarks for victory but losing by 20 Points in Yellowstone (where Montana's largest city Billings is located) was an absolute killer. He actually won his hometown of Kalispell (the in town precincts) which is somewhat mind boggling. He did very solidly in Ravalli as well (Hamilton). Both of those are traditionally beet red.

[Heir of Camelot]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

[Heir of Camelot]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

I tend to agree that Gianforte is more formidable than Daines. His vast fortune and ability to write himself a check any time he needs to should not be underestimated.

So you're not high on Bryce Bennett in the SOS race then I take it?

[Heir of Camelot]

IndyRep, how would you rate all these races?

I will post my #analysis and maps condensed in one post and/or the first page when I have more time, but for now:

(Rating before the primary -> Rating after the primary)

Statewide offices:

GOV: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup
AG: Likely R -> Tilt/Lean R
SoS: Lean R -> Likely R
Auditor: Likely R -> Lean/Likely R
Superintendent: Lean R -> Lean/Likely R

I think the big story in those (non-federal) races will be the decline in split-ticket voting when compared to the past, but if I had to rank them from most to least winnable for Democrats, it would be GOV > AG > Auditor > Superintendent > SoS. IMO, Republicans benefited most in the Secretary of State's race (which I’d consider the most likely R hold of all the state + federal offices), while Democrats' chances improved most in the Attorney General's race.

Federal races:

MT-PRES: Safe R -> Likely/Safe R
MT-SEN: Tossup/Tilt D -> Tossup/Tilt D
MT-AL: Likely R -> Lean R

I know a lot of people will disagree with me re: Gianforte > Daines, and this is certainly very debatable.

I tend to agree that Gianforte is more formidable than Daines. His vast fortune and ability to write himself a check any time he needs to should not be underestimated.

So you're not high on Bryce Bennett in the SOS race then I take it?

As a non-Montana watcher, I am big fan of the AG candidate I just feel that he is a likable guy in my gut.  Hopefully he has a good career statewide and maybe even hold the Senate seat in 2024, or the Governors mansion in 2028.

That's definitely the hype around Raph Graybill but I'm not so sure. He's SUPER young. He's barely 30 and looks 19. His whole campaign so far has been based off "I'm the next Bullock" to the point that it's almost kind of obnoxious. He has him and Bullock posing together in the EXACT same outfit all the way down to the shoes and belt and it comes across kind of like "take your kid to work day." Missoula has been slow to embrace him, they went hard for Dudik.

On the other hand I've heard he's very smart. He has a nice family. He's from Great Falls. I think he has a bright future but I don't picture him winning statewide until his forties. Tester will run for the Senate one more time (he's already campaigning). So 2030 is the earliest that seat will open up. I could picture him running for Gov in 2028 in he wins AG but he'd still be only 38 (and look 25 lol). I think 2036 is more his window unless he's the next Bill Clinton. He'd be a still young 46 in '36.

[Heir of Camelot]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

That's unfortunate. Schweitzer is a solid candidate, and him not running in 2014 was a loss.

Hypothetically if he had ran for Senate this year would he be doing well against Daines?

Schweitzer would obliterate Daines. He's a legend. In his Gubernatorial reelection campaign he won every county in Montana except 4. There are 56 counties in Montana, Brian won 52 and he's still pissed about those four haha. For context Bullock won 7 (the big ones).

I recently talked to a friend of his that told me he used to spend 6-8 hours a day cold calling voters when he was in campaign mode.

The problem is Brian told me that after being an executive he's not much interested in being one vote out of a hundred. He spends a lot of time at his home in Arizona these days and has kind of ridden off into the sunset so to speak.

[Heir of Camelot]

Marsha Blackburn is a firecracker. Daines is really not that. He's kind of a fluke. He is absolutely terrified that he might actually run into a constituent at some point. He's Disappearing Daines. Whereas Schweitzer absolutely lives to campaign and he's kind of a genius at it. During his second campaign he didn't even have a staff. It was literally just him and his brother.

Tenessee and Montana are a little different too (although they both love Bluegrass). Montana is all about that ticket splitting (see Trump and Bullock's totals four years ago). It's hard for me to picture a Democrat winning statewide in Tennessee nowadays. Heck Moscow Mitch is basically safe.

[Heir of Camelot]

Yes. Something to that affect. If I remember correctly he did a hostile takeover of MT's biggest mining company and then turned around and sold it to a huge conglomerate from S. Africa and made bank.

[Heir of Camelot]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

That's unfortunate. Schweitzer is a solid candidate, and him not running in 2014 was a loss.

Hypothetically if he had ran for Senate this year would he be doing well against Daines?

Schweitzer would obliterate Daines. He's a legend. In his Gubernatorial reelection campaign he won every county in Montana except 4. There are 56 counties in Montana, Brian won 52 and he's still pissed about those four haha. For context Bullock won 7 (the big ones).

I recently talked to a friend of his that told me he used to spend 6-8 hours a day cold calling voters when he was in campaign mode.

The problem is Brian told me that after being an executive he's not much interested in being one vote out of a hundred. He spends a lot of time at his home in Arizona these days and has kind of ridden off into the sunset so to speak.

"Brian told me"? Plus your prior post about speaking with the MT Dem. Chair not long ago. You do run with the big dogs in the MDP, don't you?

People are pretty shocked when they see some of the folks who populate my cell phone contacts. A runaway drunk dialer would have an absolute field day. Haha.

[Heir of Camelot]

Bullock will still get some moderate Republicans though. There is a growing divide between moderate old school Republicans such as former Gov Marc Racicot and the closet Nazis of Trump.