Black voters (Wapo/Ipsos): Biden +60

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

We haven't voted yet and Trump is losing in ABC IPSOS poll you didn't comment on

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This looks much closer to reality than some of the other surveys floating around.

Trump at 14% nearly doubles his 2020 figure. Biden 74% is an 18% drop

As you concede that this looks much closer to reality, then you're conceding a big swing in Trump's favor

The 2020 exit poll was Biden 87, Trump 12.

We haven't voted yet and Redban thinks  polls are end all be all they arent

The fact of the matter Trump has dropped in every single poll, the reason for this it's the SOTU bounce and Trump isn't winning primaries like he was on Super Tues

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump numbers are crashing and Redban thinks that Trump is gonna pull a rabbit out of it's hat, WE BLKS DONT LIKE TRUMP, it's just that simple

I wanna ask Redban whom rioted on J6 whites not blks or Latinx

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Between Trump toupee and Redban they are picking apart every poll because Trump numbers are crashing, it's obvious because you don't see Red avatars doing it anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not like black voters suddenly are going to vote for Trump more, it's just that more black Biden voters relative to black Trump voters will not turn out, reducing the margin. By how much, we don't know, that we will only know by november. Polls centering around specific demographics are unreliable and useless, esp since a lot of those demographic groups aren't homogenic.

2020 Biden Black voters can definitely vote for Trump more. A lot of the gradual weakening of Dem numbers with Black voters is turnover from 98% Dem seniors to 85% Dem youths, and some of it is differential turnout, but there is also persuasion going on. If Trump gains more than a few percent among Black voters, it will be from persuasion.

I can't claim to understand the mechanics of persuasion for every Clinton-Trump or Biden-Trump voter, but they have their reasons. It is extremely Atlas-brained to act like Trump's gains with non-Whites are due to extreme turnout changes and not persuasion. Even when persuasion is acknowledged it's dismissed as solely from incumbency a lot of the time.

A lot of it is reversion to the mean. Blacks should be a heavily Democratic constituency, but they should not be as heavily Democratic as they are. Currently, we have African Americans who agree with Republicans on every major issue and dislike Democrats, but still voting for them. When we are talking about going from 8% to 13%-17% we are still discussing the most conservative sixth of the African American electorate.

The GOP is almost guaranteed to substantially increase its African American support into the mid-teens over the next decade, and fail utterly to expand much beyond it.

I think this poll is fairly accurate. The absolute ceiling for the GOP is probably around 24% of the African American vote. A realistic target for a "good result" would be 16%.

I also think the focus on nonwhite voters is misplaced. It will matter on the margins, but more interesting is whether 2022 represented a high-water mark of high-income white support for Democrats.

Lol the Rs give us nothing