Since we are exactly 222 days out, let's do a comparison of 2 metrics (job approval and h2h polling) between Bush, Obama, and Trump per RCP.
Bush 2004
Approval: 49.2%
Election polling: Bush+1.9
Obama 2012
Approval: 47.7%
Election polling: Obama+5.0
Trump 2020
Approval: 47.2%
Election polling: Biden+5.8
Biden 2024
Approval: 39.9%
Election polling: Trump+1.0
What's interesting is the polling at this point in mid Spring tends to be some of the most accurate of the final result in incumbent races.
The difference in all those Approvals is that it was high unemployment not high inflation and we replicated the blue wall in 22 when Biden was at 41 APPROVALS
High inflation thats why Biden is above Trump because it was 9 percent unemployment in 20 that's why Trump lost
Biden isn't losing in these record low gas prices
