Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is vulnerable too because we just won a H Riverwalk isn't wrong Powell is likely to win now and ALLRED is 2 pts behind Cruz the 2016 pollster said TX S was over no it wasn't


FL, OH, NC, GA, TX have 15  blk and 26 Arab and Latino and white females vote 55)45 D so there you have, Ds are put down here to help poverty not control deficits caused by military spending and tax cuts. Rs blame Entitlements but military is 1/3 rd of budget

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possible if Trump's gains are mostly from gains among blacks (both lower turnout and better margins) and he makes more gains in urban areas than rural areas (which is also reflected in polling).

He's not making gains with blks did you hear we won a red state district in FL that's losing blk support and Cruz is only up two what has Trump done for blks like me Homelessness doubled from 5/10 percent ent during Trump time in office majority of homeless are blk men

There is like 15 per ent in TX in Austin mainly and Dallas that have Blks thats cutting into Cruz support, my cuz live in TX and since their Cowboys lost they are voting ALLRED blk cuz not white cuz that's losing blk support

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait for the wave the polls aren't correspondence to votes we just won a red district in FL and Rs said Powell and ALLRED were DoA no they aren't Cruz is only up 2

The reason why Trump is so weak in GE compared to primary Rs think Trump is exhonerated and he is only out on bond Ds know better and Trump is still a criminal , he is only out on bond and even if he is elected Prez he can be tried in 28 he can't run again as Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls before the runoff Pred Walker was gonna win, so I wouldn't put too much into polls right now, especially with GA but we know Robinson is leading Stein and NC is moving right but Kemp is popular too, we don't need but AZ plus 279 we don't need either GA or NC it's wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those. If he couldn't get a landslide in 2020 when the country was in recession, Trump was more unpopular than ever, and Biden himself had better favorables, he isn't going to get one now.

Biden winning NC is not implausible, and Biden underperforming his 2020 margin nationwide is far from a forgone conclusion. While Biden needs to focus on securing the MI/PA/WI trio + AZ, attempting to flip North Carolina for a more secure finish wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea (even though I still think Georgia's stronger for Biden than North Carolina is).


Robinson is beating Stein look at the ECU poll he is leading by 4, Stein hasn't lead in a single recent NC poll and we don't need GA or NC
But aside from that, Democrats would be foolish to waste time and resources in any of the other Trump 2020 states (and Trump isn't winning any state he lost to Biden by over 5% the first time).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users are in denial about gerrymandering in NC, Stein is gonna lose he is down 4 I even have it Lean R, it may bounce back in 26 to D because Jeff Jackson may wind up challenging Tillis since he is almost certainly gonna lose AG race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

Have you seen the ECU poll it was accurate in 2022 when it predicted Beasley to lose by 3 Robinson is ahead by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC isn't AZ we see TX trending left only because Cruz been in the S too long and it's trending more left than FL the samething in GA compared to NC, GA is still the bellwether not NC. Cooper won because he is the inc but it's a 3 T D inc it's gonna be difficult for Ds not impossible to hold onto to NC

We experienced the same thing in WA but FERGUSON is gonna win OR and WA Gov polls always show an R bias

We are gonna win WA, NH and then VA and have 23 DG in 24 and 24 DG After 25/26 every inc Gov seat is gonna be refilled in 26 too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA has Atlanta the polls lie Trump isn't up 8 in GA just like he isn't  up 6 over Biden like Harris X wants us to believe