Election models megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

Pay no attention what Bonier says.

The pA numbers we're accurate but the OH numbers weren't OZ still isn't gonna win because Fetterman is already at 55 percent and so is Shapiro Fetterman and Shapiro should win 54/46 and Ds are fully invested in WI and NV it's a 303 map anyways

Oz, Shapiro, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Dixon are gonna lose 55/45 percent and Evers would have been the heavy underdog , that's why Barnes has a chance otherwise he wouldn't because Rs didn't nominate Kleefisch, Johnson would be heavy fav not 1 pt ahead if Kleefisch was the Gov nominee and how about that Bailey, Sullivan was a Maverick, Pritzker was nervous about Sullivan or Irvine that's why he ran ads attacking Bailey no one knows Bailey but they know Sullivan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They said Student loan Discharge have 8M applications in 2 days that's why it's called voting not polls as I said it's clearly a 65/60M vote not 80/75M vote Eday but we won red states in 2018 and not in 2020 and we didn't win 80M votes in 2018 I don't know how that can happen but it did, that's why it's a 303 map with wave insurance and we should wait for the results and not just go by polls the same polls showed us losing in AK and NY 19 but we are gonna win 303 at the very least plus you have Insurrection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 is by no means perfect and I have issues with their models, but it is something quantifiable. The house is now 78-22 and senate is 59-41. Notably, Nevada is now tilting towards Laxalt and Oz has passed the Dems in OH/NC/WI.

The senate will end up in tossup territory at this rate once Vance, Budd, and Johnson’s odds increase towards where Rubio is. Democrats are still inflated, for that matter, by the fact that 538 thinks those are all more likely to flip than Arizona.

Johnson chances increase lol do you think Barnes is gonna lose by 5 and Evers gonna win by 5 no Obama is coming in and campaign for Barnes, and Cook and Sabato and 538 had WI GOV Lean R with Walker the whole 2o18 and they were wrong then and wrong now and they had AK Rep Tilt R and Ds won AK

Drazen was up the same margin as Johnson now is up and now she is behind the samething is gonna happen in. wI it's a 303 map anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 18):

AZ D+4.9 (-1.1)
CO D+8.8 (+0.9)
FL R+4.4 (-0.2)
GA D+3.7 (nc)
NH D+7.4 (-0.4)
NV R+0.2 (-0.5)
NC R+2.0 (-0.1)
OH R+0.9 (+0.7)
PA D+3.6 (-2.1)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

This seems like noise-level movement, except in Pennsylvania.

We can see Ryan, Barnes, Fetterman, McMullin and FRANKEN all win

McMULLIN doesn't count as a D takeover because he said he won't caucus with anyone just vote individual

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA should be included Change is a good pollster and Grassley is only ahead by 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/21/iowa-senate-franken-grassley-midterms/10564937002/

Rs are worried about Grassley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note that it's a 65)60 M vote not an 80)75 M vote so youth turnout is likely lower that's screwing the polls but Ds are still gonna outvote Rs by 5 M

We won OH Sen and KS GOV, in 2018 with fewer votes than 2020, that's why Ryan can win it's a midterm not a Prez Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either 53/46/1 D S OH, WI, PA flips, 52/48 D Senate WI, PA flips or 51/49 Senate PA and Ds win either GA or WI odds likely 52)48 S Net WI and PA 50% and 25% 53/46/1 and 10 51/49, 5% 51/50 D and 5% lose control 51/49 R SENATE


Likely 225/210RH and 52/48 D Senators Split control but can be 53/46/1 too, that's why Biden said he wants 53 Senators

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter all that much Ds are trying to hold onto the S and limit their losses in the H and Biden and Harris will be back in the ballot in 224 both H of Congresd will be fought over in 24

That's why Ds say we can afford to lose the H but net gain Senate seats

It's the same blue wall map in 24 and Trump or DeSantis are gonna be Disadvantage in EC Map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-power-rankings-republicans-125822449.html

Fox just said the H is GOP but the Senate holds sway for both parties as WI, PA, NC and OH and GA will come down to end

Ds have more pathways than Rs of course if all our Incumbents hold on it's a 51/50 S

Or if we gain PA and win GA or WI it's a 51/49 S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for models of R big night in H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stella had 229R seats, I think pollsters think 2010 you still haven't heard from MT Treasure, but Rs won in 1994/2010 on Obamacare repeal as well as gerrymandering