Election models megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof?t=zA9E9nvBCfaR6vn_GJbluQ&s=09

Here is the Senate fircast of holding onto our Seats AZ is a 71% favored chance

C(O D+10 90
NH D +5 76
AZ D+4 71
Pa /D +3 67
NV D+1 57

50 seats

GA D 0.6 50
NC D-3 35
WI D-3 32
OH D-3 24
FL D-10 9
AK D-30 5

NO R NUT NAPS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not worrying about the H until EDay if we win a Senate majority we will win the H good news Kelly isn't losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't winning 50 Senate if Warnock wins it will be 50/50 we net PA that's 51 and WI 52

Nate Silver has PA as the 50th seat not GA because it's a Runoff but Warnock is hitting 50 in every poll it will be at least 51/49

The range is from 230 RH/217 Rs and 51/55 Senate seats, 50 percent chance for Divided Congress, 40 chance of Secular Trifecta abd 10 percent chance of R Congress

Rs aren't getting close to 240 the range is 225/230

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

I'm very confused about how the House model can think the GCB is slightly over 2020t R + 4 (about a 9 point swing from 2020) yet the Senate model can in good faith rate PA-Sen and AZ-Sen as Lean D. Sure, Oz and Masters have their issues but are they significant to matter that much.

And the Governors forecast almost seems to indicate a D wave, with MI-Gov being safe D, MN, WI, and PA being likely D, and KS being tossup.

Even just look at a state by state level in the House. AZ-Sen is lean D yet AZ-01 and AZ-06 are safe R, districts that Kelly will prolly have to win or at least come close in to win statewide.

I have a feeling that in reality their 3 models are not very well correlated at all.

Do you realize D's outnumber Rs and female vote 55/45 and when Ds lost it wasn't a deficit it was only tied there are 100 M minorities in this country 85% vote D and 150 M females and 55/45 vote D and white men 60% vote R and 150M

This is taught in Psychology 101 in college that females and Minorities vote D be ause we are Labor and White men are Evangelical Enterprenaurs and Corporate, but females are Human Resource Managers the Hiring managers, I had females as hiring managers but CEOs are white men the owners, inheritance wealth like Trump

I think you haven't looked at EDay Results every Election Ds outnumber Rs 65/60M we lost red states in 2014, not blue states nd 2010 we had 10% unemployment and polls in OH, NC and FL contradictory your R nut map that have D's AHEAD

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollingBad2022/status/1560417917786722304?t=dbjXjdr3N736UgkB50pRgw&s=19

Election model moves WI, PA to Lean R and UT, OH, NC as Tossup no FL yet

52/45 Senate right now is 👍

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

At least they fixed the MN-05 and FL-24 problems. Overall it doesn't seem too bad and seems like what you'd expect if 2022 ends up being a pretty solid R wave. My only gripe is that they weight incumbency a bit too mcuh in such a polarized era.

Yeah, they have the House at 234-201 right now..... 538's 230-205 seems a bit more realistic.

As I said before and say it again we can get 235/210R H and ,50/56DS we can get any wave Insurance map D's out ote Rs 65/60M we didn't win 80M votes in 2010, to win OH Sen

Progressive Moderate thinks Barnes Kelly and CCM are gonna lose they're all winning it's a range 50/40/10 Divided Govt/Secularist Trifecta/R Congress

Stop worrying about a H majority if we win OH, NC and FL Sen we can win the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter anyways 24 will be up as soon as 22 is over and both parties will competete for H and Senate majority it matters only how many seats each party gets wave insurance for 24 but Biden is expected to win reelection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still likely RH but it's a Likely D Sen and 303 Govs but we don't know yet about OH, FL and NC

We can get a 2012 scenario where Rs take the H and we get an expanded Majority in the Sen because our Senate and Gov candidates are always stronger than House candidates it's been looking this way a long time 52/55 Seats in Senate and RH and 26/24 DGovs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's good to go by EDay models but seriously do we really supposed to explicitly go by then no we Don't that's why we make user prediction that's why I say users try to make exact maps and anything can happen

They say take everything with a grain of salt

D's got 59 seats in 2008 and no one expected that because just like in 22, models underpredicted, Liddy Dole, Ted Stevens, Chambliss, Chambliss was supposed to easily win and he ended up in a runoff, and so was Gordon Smith he was a McCain moderate, were all moderate enough to survive the wave and no one expected us to win 42 H seats in 2018 it's was projected 10/25 seats by Roll call and they said in fact Pelosi might have to wait till 2020 to become speaker D's overperformed

Any users trying to make an exact 303, map 1/3 chances they will be wrong on EDay because anything can happen that's why the user prediction doesn't block you on certain races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I know we're gonna net PA SEN THAT GIVES US 50 WI, GA, NC, OH AND FL GETS US TO 55 ABD THEN IN, IA and LA gives us the rest but it's very possible NC gives us 52 seats after WI because we won 319 EC votes we didn't just win 306 because we won NC Gov that's why Beasley is so close and if the 3rd party spoils it for Beasley we go to OH and FL and IN and LA

I put it to you this way if you don't believe in wave insurance it's over(SEN)if D's win FL, NC or OH  Sen or IN or IA all on EST or CST it just won't be called until CA, WA, NV and AZ are in because those are WC times and we have HI 5 hrs apart

I KNOW NEWBIES ARE STUCK ON THIS 303 MAP BUT I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS SINCE 2004 Exact MAPS DONT WORK

ALSO EARLY VOTING IS STARTING IN OCT ONLY PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, Absentee AND RURAL VOTE, VOTES ON EDAY THE VOTING IS OVER FOR URBAN VOTE IN Oct 31 st Halloween they won't be tabulated until Nov EDay

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 gives D's a 70/30 chance because it's 51/44 WI, PA leans D while OH, NC, FL, GA, UT are tossup and we can win IN and LA too

Anyone that say we can't win Red states we just won AK and it doesn't have Latinos or Blks, OH, FL, NC, IN and LA and GA do we are the balance of power 5/6% not the majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

Those completely insane Echelon polls probably having more of an impact than they should.

They're not insane they are internet polls just like Impact polls are internet, Ryan has been getting tons of Donations like Beto on the internet that's why he is leading by 9 in Impact and 6 in Echelon Emerson and TRAFALGAR uses Phone polls that's why they are inflated but Oz and Masters are DONE, Rs winning PA and NV after every poll has Oz at least 6 pts down and CCM is averaging 3 ahead that's why we need to VOTE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

In 2000, RCP had California as only Lean Gore before election day.

They had much bigger problems than that. They were projecting like a 400EV Bush win though tbf that was 20 years ago

Also in 2000 Cali was only like a D+10 state or so

The Rs have problems in all their states except Reynolds, Sununu and Scott why because they believe in Trickle down economics, tax cuts for the wealthy will trickle down to the working class models may not believe that Rs can lose TX and FL but it's called Blk and Brown support that they are margin of difference in TX, FL, OH, NC OH, and the reason they have PA and W,I red not blue they are going by Approval ratings just like your R nut map but Trump have the same negative Approvals in Swing states as Biden that's why Ds are outpolls Biden low Approvals , and GCB has D's ,50/48 not 45/53 like Biden Approvals, they are trying to project an R sweep that's not gonna happen, if Rs win both Houses they will lose it because they are gonna cut so many programs, just like now we have no stimulus checks because Rs cut out the Federal stimulus but states continue to give  tax rebates for Property taxes and homeowners

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe this we are winning in OH, OK and Beasley and Demings are 2 pts back Blk and brown is 5/6% we are the balance of power we can get a Filibuster proof Trifecta

If we weren't leading red states then that's fine but really OK and OH are competetive


If it's a 303 map and we win only WI and PA and net only 52/48 Senate I believe it's a tie but females and Blk and Latino voters are angry at income inequality look at the monarchy all that wealth they can get rid of homeless population in Cali


Act blue we believe in blue waves the last time we failed at a blue wave was Hillary and  2016, we had one in 2018/20

Rs are for trickling down economics, that's playing itself out in OH and OK


Biden ran with Obama in 2008/12 and won red states  Obama didn't win red states by himself

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MQK poll already went from RV to LV and so did Suffolk that's why Barnes went from 7 ahead to 1 behind and Ryan was leading by 9 and now he is leading by one but those are preelection polls not exit polls

We will win once we start voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ronbrownstein/status/1570178082052657152?s=46&t=SzRO0yVO...

Ferguson needs to believe in blue waves not just Election models we over polled in AK and NY 19


Trends are made to be broken Trump net gained seats at 43/54 Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All these swing state races are within 5/6 pts and Early voting is begining soon it's too early to Declare Rs the winner of EDay just like we thought or some thought when Biden was at 33/61, D's were Done but all the races have been consistently 5/6 pts the entire Midterm

Even VA, AK and NY 19 we're all with MOE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't care about the H those Sen races in OH, WI, FL and NC are gonna be close after we won AZ, GA, NV, NH and PA

It's over if we win those races the Rs know it too even if we don't win the H in 22 D's will have 53 + votes to secure the S for 24 and pass DC Statehood in 24 and win the H back.in 24 that's why Rs keep saying OH, WI, NC and FL are Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs were +5 on GCB in 2010/14 and D's are +3 with Obama and Biden 22 at 45/53 Approvals that's why Rs are underperforming and it's not Rassy polls but Greenberg and NBC News GCB

That's why Progressive Moderate R nut map of R Sen 54 seats won't happen and D's were way ahead in 2018 on GCb but they weren't supposed to pickup 43 H seats more like 10/25 and we lost MO, ND, FL, IN TN and TX Sen races too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If course they don't look at Mara Largo and the Trump raid has damaged the brand of the R party beyond repair .
I hope Cunningham and Ryan get ELECTED

Why do you think Crist is doing well because of Mara Largo Raid in FLORIDA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Rs might even win the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UT, NC, OH and PA are on the verge of flipping

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're still looking at models and EDay is 5 weeks away I don't look at them we know Rs can take the H that doesn't mean diddly for 52+ Senate seats we have so many pickups in GOV and Sen Edays as many as Rs have in the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't concerned about the Senate or Govs and if they lose the H Adam Schiff said they will win it back it's gonna be a D Sen PAs and GA and NV Leans D that's 51 seats

People forget as soon as 22 is over the race for the Senate and H begins since it's a 303 map anyways and we have entrenched incumbentts I'm the Sen with Bob Casey Jr and Tim Kaine in 24 R pickups are very limited in 24, and Gwen Graham is looking to challenge Rick Scott on 24 he isn't Rubio as for the H it's gonna be such a narrow majority either way D's will win it back in 24 R majority don't last forever

Pollsters are so obsessed with 24 polling they will start polling 23/24 numbers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we know is Rs are favs in the H and Ds in the Senate and Ds can get 52 plus seats in the Senate I don't go by models it's called voting too, our prediction is a prediction maps not a ratings maps and pundits predicted us to net gain H seats and we lost H seats the same can happen with wave insurance Senate especially OH, UT, NC, WI and PA going D, on MSNBC they are predicting upsets OH, NC and UT

SD can be a big upset as well as FL those are wavy R seats but SD replaced IA as a D pickup