Post your BOLD takes for the 2022 midterms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can't make any without polls in OR, ME, MI, PA, WI Gov they refuse to poll these states but give us 44 Approvals  and poll constantly GA, AZ, NV, TX and FL polls

They finally let us know Beasley wasn't the D frontrunner we thought she was lol she is down like Hagen 7 I'm 2014 and many users the D's won't admit that they were wrong about pushing out Jeff Jackson in favor of Beasley

He's, ha, ha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

Lol show us the OR, ME, MI, WI and PA polls that shows Rs up by nine pts like in 2010/14,  there aren't any, that's the only way you can prove there is an R wave and your Masters is losing to Kelly in AZ in a non OH Predictive poll

I see you didn't even comment on that poll because Kelly is winning

Also if the Natl Environment is so bad Hassan would be trailing she is up 5/10 pts this is not a typical Red wave that you see in 2010)14

Furthermore, Biden has the exact same Approvals as Trump and he net gained seats Rs are complaining about Biden 44 but we are still in a Covid Environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303/235 map it's only been 1.5 yrs since we voted last time the only reason why we may lose the H we lost seats last time in the H in a 303 map so nothing has really change

The biggest flop is Beasley D's pushed  Jeff Jackson aside and D's on the Forum were here saying they want Beasley they're not where to be found, Beasley has only 3=1M on Hand compared to Deming's 10M but Rubio won by 10 last time they both gonna lose


NC isn't VA it's still a red state

We haven't seen any polls in OH but if I had to guess if it's a 303 map Ryan will lose like Bullock by 8 pts

Let's not play games hers D's are gonna duplicate the 303 map there aren't any OR, ME, WI, PA, MI showing Rs ahead like in 2010/14 abd we're gonna have a 125M vote turnout not an 82M vote turnout in 2010/14 where we lost blue wall states by 5/9 pts


Some users like Kenyatta supporter still think in this Environment that Deming's, Beto and CRIST and Morgan Harper are gonna win lol that ship has sailed a long time ago

Ryan can be out 53rd seat he is the only red state D that can win OH Predictive refuses to poll OH Sen or Gov because DeWine Approvals are so high

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This election can take any turn but the Ukraine War has hurt D's chances especially in the H due to high gas prices but Rs sweeping everything like Rs 248 and 54 Senate seats or D's getting 55/60 seats won't happen it's likely more divided Govt split control that can go either way in Congress 222(216 H either way and Divided Senate we can get as many as 53 but we are gonna have to win Runoff

As I said before there is a user on this site named Keynatta wanter or whatever his name is thinks Morgan Harper not Tim Ryan is gonna be the next Senator, there are extremes on both sides

Like Rs thinking Kelly, is gonna lose, lol he has been ahead in every poll that's just Rs wishful thinking

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was always a 303 map Biden won 50/45 and he made a 303 Map and all the 303 states including WI and PA we're within 200K votes and it's 125M Electorate not a. 82 2010/14 or 150M ,2020 Electorate Biden isn't on the ballot so Approvals only matter if it's a 303 or 413 and Biden is under 50 so it's a 303 map


As of today it's a 51/49 D Senate without GA and LA and a 0/8 seat bet gain for Rs in the H Rs aren't gaining 25/63 seats we don't have 255 votes that we had last time and they picked up alot of seats in 2020 ast time and Golden and Pappas are Favs

Crist, Ryan, Demings, Beasley and Beto were only recruited to salvage the H in this Environment where Rs are favs to win the H they're already gonna lose, Cook already has Rs netting the H not the S.

Folks that's why it's called Divided Govt not R Controlled or D Controlled, BIDEN never had a mandate a Split Senate with Sinema not giving in on Filibuster meant Divided Govt

RS make it seems that D's had a mandate and they obstructed along with Collins, Murkowski and Romney the Voting Rights Act , that's so that they can Blake a do nothing Congress on Da

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems hold NV, GA, AZ and pick up PA (still unsure about WI)
MO-Sen will be closer than most people think if Greitens is nominated (He'll still win, but by 2016 MO-Sen margins)

I'm still optimistic about our chances in the midterms, especially if Biden cancels student loan debt.

Psaki said Biden isn't giving out any blanket student loan Discharge
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jen-psaki-student-loan-payments_n_6253fab8e4b06c2ea3205be0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users underestimate our turnout, in 125M vote turnout it's a 303 map the Rs are favs to take the H but it's not gonna be 25/63 seats a GOP strategy said 10 and Golden and Pappas are Favs so that is 8

We did bad on 2810/14 due to fact it was 82M votes Approvals numbers show 42% but Hassan and Kelly are leading if Biden was really at 42 notheu would be Losing

Anybody can say anything political it's a free website just like all those R nut maps showing Kelly losing and he is ahead users say 100 R seat net gain just to make themselves look smart and we have a bigger turnout operation than Rs since 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats stay a hair above 200 House seats.

Georgia and Pennsylvania both have a split Senate/gubernatorial result.

Republicans win Arizona and Nevada by more than 5%.

Maggie Hassan wins by more than 5%.

Lol Kelly and Hassan are winning Kelly has been ahead 50/48 over Masters and Brnovich, users need to stop this R nut map business

But why am I not surprised you made R nut maps in the Senate prediction , Cook, Gonzalez and Sabato have AZ at Tossup not Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

Lol Rs aren't taking both Houses we have a bigger turnout operation than 2010/14, it was 82M same day votes in 2010/14 I know you listen to Election Guy alot, but with a 125M VBM, vote Turnout since 2016 we are gonna get a 303 map, polls underestimate Minority support and there are no OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls showing us behind, SHOW ME THOSE STATE POLLS AND I WILL IMMEDIATELY TURN MY PREDICTION into an R Nut map, but you believe Mark Kelly is gonna lose and he is ahead by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden's approval rating will increase immediately after the GOP takes both chambers of congress.

Lol Rs aren't taking both Houses we have a bigger turnout operation than 2010/14, it was 82M same day votes in 2010/14 I know you listen to Election Guy alot, but with a 125M VBM, vote Turnout since 2016 we are gonna get a 303 map, polls underestimate Minority support and there are no OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls showing us behind, SHOW ME THOSE STATE POLLS AND I WILL IMMEDIATELY TURN MY PREDICTION into an R Nut map, but you believe Mark Kelly is gonna lose and he is ahead by 4

High turnout doesn't just help Dems. The 2020 election and VA-Gov 2021 disproved this myth. Turnout this year will for sure be higher than 2010 and 2014, but the GOP is still favored the win both houses of congress unless things change in the meantime. It's possible, but not likely. House is Safe R at this point, the senate Tilt/Lean R.

We also won California Gov with high turnout, are you actually a D or an R I didn't say it was gonna be a 413 map but R strategy on MSNBC aren't predicting a landslide for Rs and Trump netted seats twice at 44% and you said Mark Kelly is losing he is winning by 4 pts

I know Snowlabrador has a red avatar he is a Discord pollster and many Ds act Repuyob that forum

Again, show me the OR, ME, MI, PA and WI polls that have Rs ahead like in 2010/14 by 5/9 until there are such polls and not Approvals I won't change my map into an R nut map, THERE ARENT AMY MI, PA AND WI POLLS, DO DS ARE STILL IM THE BALLGAME UMLESS WE LOSE THE BIG THREE PLUS OR AND ME

D's no matter what the polls still believe their party will overcome the odds, otherwise I am not like other Ds that make user Predictions just to make R nut maps, otherwise if it's an R nutap I wouldn't even bothe

As I told Mr, Pieman, Snowlabrador and you and Big NY show me the ME, OR, PA, WI and MI polls that shows  Rs ahead and right now I will change my prediction into an R nut map and it's still only April, oh I forgot there aren't any there are only GA, TX, FL, AZ and NV polls and 42 percent Approvals and Trump netted House seats at 44% in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Di users know that Mark Kelly and Hassan are ahead and users are not looking at that and posting AZ and NH as Lean R that's how you know it's not a typical R wave and Trump netted H seats in 2020 with 44%  that is bold posting R nut maps and Hassan and Kelly are winning

We are still in this but users look at the bad side not the good sude

How many DOOMER prediction have we had on this thread compared to  optimistic, including myself I am not escaped from Doom but I post more optimistic prediction than DOOMER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don’t think the GOP winning between 245-265 house seats is unrealistic...at all. The math is there.

That is not going to happen wishful thinking we aren't losing that many blue seats try again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Biden's approval rating continues to decline until November
- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

Have they polled any 303 states aside from NH, GA, and NV stop saying things about the Election that they haven't polled yet as I have tolded you before it's a 303 map until they poll the OR, ME, MI, WI and PA polls otherwise we would be behind in AZ and NH we don't need GA it's a wave insurance seat and NV Laxalt isn't up 7

Yeah Biden polls continue to Decline and Hassan is up by 15 and increase from 10 and Kelly is still lesding by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Republicans win NV-SEN and PA-SEN by more than Democrats win CO-SEN.
- Hassan does at least 4 points better than Cortez Masto and Kelly and everyone will pretend that they always saw that coming and never had NH as the most likely Senate seat to flip.
- NH-02 only votes slightly to the left of NH-01.
- Republicans win two of GA-02, TX-34, CA-25, and IL-06.
- Herschel Walker does only negligibly (if at all) worse than Brian Kemp/David Perdue and wins an outright majority of the vote in November.

Bonus round (nuclear takes 🔥):
- VT-SEN is (slightly) closer than IA-SEN.
- NY-GOV is (slightly) closer than at least one of TX-GOV and FL-GOV.

You know very well a 3.0 lead is nothing for our GOTV in Reno in Vegas the Latinos are very similar to Latinos in California alot of them are in Homeless tents in Reno and Vegas and LA and SF

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt is only up within the margin of error he is a retread from 2018 and he was supposed to win the Gov race against SISOLAK, users act like 3 pts is such a landslide ha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bold take as of today it's an RH and D S Golden, Pappas survived the margins in the Senate will be 51/47 with possible Runoffs in GA and LA the 303 states are well within the margin of Error which means rural vote that gives Rs 100k vote lead, they count it first can be erased by Provisional ballots, the Rs will win the 413 not 303 states because TX is an oil state not just a Latino state unlike AZ

We don't have any ME, OR, KS MI, PA and WI, MD, KS and MA polls that can be won with D GOTV

I am concerned about OR Betsy Johnson is running a ,3rd party campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna do far better, let the votes count if D's were Doomed we wouldn't be ahead in AZ and NH that tells you right there the Approvals are bogus Maricopa county is a swing county and Biden won it last time and Rs still think Kelly is gonna lose

Laxalt is the only one leading in a swing state and GA is a runoff anyways and Laxalt lost last time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt can surely win but he was ahead by 3 pts on EDay 2018 and he lost, granted that 2018 was a D yr but NV is a blue state not red state that's the problem Laxalt faces and he is a retread like Scott Brown was

He is a threat yes he doesn't look like xVance or Eric Trump he looks like Conor Lamb, that's why he is a threat I wouldn't surprised if in a bad night where Ds lose a 100 seats he win but not in a 303 map, Cook still has Senate a Tossup and H going R, because S map follows like Gov map 303 blue wall and the H is a red map we lose TX and FL it's over

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol there aren't any PA, OH, MI and WI polls so we just have to wait til we get them, and Stacy Abrams is up by 1 pts but if she gets into a Runoff against Kemp, she will win in Jan, Obama and D's are gonna campaign for her but she is behind Perdue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is very vulnerable he won by 187K votes like Pat Toomey did I don't know why all these Atlasia people except for Pittsburgh believes that Ron Johnson is super safe and Evers is gonna lose we're gonna beat Ron Johnson

News flash Mandel Barnes and Tony Evers beat Scott Walker after Obama campaigned for Barnes in 2018

News flash to Ds we need 52 senators not 50 or 51 so we don't have to deal with Manchin or Sinema if we narrowly hold the H, WI and OH are our 52/53rd seat and MO we haven't heard from that state polling is vulnerable with Grietans, just winning GA and PA without WI or OH is gonna put us right back to where we are now a 51/49 Senate with Filibuster ..Pittsburgh knows this that's why he has endorsed the D nominated in WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

Rich coming from a guy whose 'predictions' are more like wishcasting (CO will not be 'very close,' given that it was Biden+13, is trending leftwards fast, and that the GOP candidate is an extremist even by the GOP's standards).
There's a very GOP bias in your predictions and your reactions to other predictions - you're willing to accept 'hot takes' that the GOP will do massively well in 2022, including quite a few ludicrous 'predictions' that you and others have made, but if someone offers a hot take that seems like it'll help the Democrats, you're suddenly not so open-minded and very much on the offensive. I feel like you'd more readily accept the 'predictions' of a doomer like SnowLabrador than someone who predicts Democrats will do decently in 2022. When there's a very bold and unlikely claim of 260+ seats for the GOP, you simply consider it 'interesting.' On the other hand, when a less bold claim is made that the Democrats'll do good in 2022, your reaction is that they'll be 'very disappointed.' No - it is you who will be disappointed when Oz doesn't win by even 3 points (if he wins at all), when Bennet wins in CO by over 6 points, and when Perdue loses the nomination.

lol we'll see in November

They haven't polled any 278 states except for NV, we are still waiting on the big three MI, PA and WIand KS Gov right now the polls are inflated biased towards Rs they have Biden at 33/59% on NV and CCM is only down 39/42% c'mon


You guys are trailing in OR Gov and Betsy Johnson is beating Tina Kotek 30/24/17R

They haven't poll NM, MD and MA Gov those are two automatic pickups, the Rs aren't getting 30 Govs like 2010 it was 10% unemployment and 90M vote we have 110/150M vote and 3.8% unemployment don't get your hopes up for 30 Govs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden and Bernie and Obama are gonna campaign for D's Obama in GA, Bernie in WI like he did with Baldwin in 2018 and Biden in PA with Fetterman, that's why we aren't gonna be slaughter in 22

Lol 33/59 Biden Approvals in NV 40)46 with Latino voters but they won't poll MD Gov race or NM where Biden is popular with LATINO, Lol just lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans win Oregon-GOV and come very close in Maine and Connecticut. Republican gains in the house beyond districts that already lean to the right nationally are primarily concentrated in suburban/college educated white districts.

Lol go to the Gov Board and look at OR Gov Johnson is ahead 30/24/17 over Generic D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Governors
OR Gov flips R but MN Gov doesn't
Kemp(GA) and Schmidt(KS) win by about 6, but that's less than what republicans win by in NV, and WI

Lol Betsy Johnson is well ahead of R challenge she is up 30/24/17

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't losing NM, NEXT