Change in conventional wisdom?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R retirements came right when Covid cases started going down, Portman, Blunt, all retired in January, Covid cases have dictated the course of the Election

It was easy to criticize Trump when Ds were the opposition party, now that they are the buracracy, they are all in control and Covid cases are three the roof.

Everywhere you go, they say do to Covid restrictions we are still in lockdown mode

Dorms, Universities, bars are still closed and it's curbside pickup at restaurants, no dining, in those areas we still are in lockdown mode

By the way many libraries and shelters are still closed eventhough everything else is open, it was great news in Jan after Xmas that Covid cases were going down

Despite vaccinations we are still in mask and people on buses or stores are so rude if they think you aren't socially distancing

Many people got online prepaid cards instead of Banks because you get paid early and banks won't give you a credit card

D's will perform in Biden Approvals which are 51/49

D's aren't gonna lose Northern seats WI, PA, NH

They are gonna lose S like GA, NC and FL in the Senate and TX and FL seats in the H, just like in 2010

If Speaker McCarthy is elected he will call for an Independent Counsel on Hunter, an R plus 10 and Senate 51/49 D is like split we had in 2010/2018

D's being in the Minority isn't pernament, they can win H in 2026 in a Harris Midterm if the Special counsel finds wrongdoing in Hunter, D's can win it back..

winning 3 Elections in a row it's very hard anyways


WE ARE STILL AFTER ALL THE STIMULUS STILL IN A PANDEMIC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs just remember Biden inherited the 30T deficit and the Pandemic, just like Obama inherited the Bush W Recession.

The average loss of seats for the inparty is 23 and it's very difficult to win 3 Elections in a row 2086/208/2010 for D's and 2014/2016/2018 for Rs


Silver lining to an R takeover of the H
A divided Congress Rs control of H and DS looks probable and an investation into Hunter Biden will prompt Harris to be the nominee in 2024 she leads DeSantis by 12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so obsessed with ratings and polls all Biden needs is 278 not 413 EC votes and in a Pandemic he isn't gonna have 60% approvals to create a huge blue wave just like Trump had mediocre ratings during a Pandemic.

This was bound to happen if Biden didn't when he got into office Eradicate Covid, all Politicians tell you what you want to hear and both Trump and Biden said they would get rid of Covid and we are stuck with

The best thing to do is get a hobby or something not just be obsessed with polling,no Politician are perfect

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2024 might be the yr that we will get from under Covid, but not in time for 2022

But, at any case, the D's will keep the S and Prez because the 278 map is replicated thru 2026

We don't know about the H, we have had split H and split Senates In 2010, 2012 and 2018 before and it can happen in 2022

Early in Biden Prez when Portman and Blunt retired, we thought Covid was being Eradicated, but Covid went back up again setting us up probably for a neutral Environment

RS TAKE H based on Redistricting and D's win WI, PA, NH and replicate278 Govs for 2022

The Ds can win the H back eventually we
Biden is at 51/49 Approvals not 55 because Biden lost FL by 3 and DeSantis is up by 6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think the fundamentals are good for Dems retaining the house.

1) midterms = educated electorate

2) trump not on the ballot to rev up his base

3) redistricting not as favorable for GOP as it was in 2010

4) Even if GOP states gained in reapportionment, Dem areas are growing within most states while GOP (i.e., rural) areas are shrinking.  So I think reapportionment might actually help Dems.

5) Biden isn't unpopular

6) GOP did well in 2020 in the House, meaning it won a lot of the very close races.  That means there's a lot of low hanging fruit this time for Dems in places like Orange County, etc. 

Trump not on the ballot to excite the Dem base, lol.

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 2016 was the last time Rs won on Generic ballot