Rasmussen: Maria Cantwell(D) looks stronger over challenger Mike McGavick(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-07-17

Summary: D: 48%, R: 37%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't seem like Mike is going to win this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Field poll came out by Elway and had Cantwell ahead by 14 so I think McGavick is behind by that many. Anyway, I am not concerned because McGavick hasn't taken the lead in this race and until he does, I am not concerned.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, he correctly predicted the 2000 race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, alot of pollsters had Gregoire running away with the race like Zogby. But that doesn't negate the fact that he was correct in predicting Maria Cantwell would win against Slade Gorton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You said why should we trust him over Strategic Vision, the same Strategic Vision that said Bush will win Wisconsin. And I wouldn't am not concerned about this race until McGavick takes the lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kerry won Wisconsin. But most pollsters as I recall said that Gregoire was going to win by a large percentage. No one predicted that Bush would win KY by 20%. The republican turnout was higher than expected and cause to give a false reading on alot of races.  This year the Dems will have a better turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I revise my statement, according to the good news for John Kerry based on the exit polls, no one thought Bush would have won Ky by 20%, they had based on the exit polls Bush winning it by 16%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, did other pollsters than Elway and you keep saying that. Zogby had Gregoire winning and so did Gallup overstate it. What I am saying is that Strategic Vision has consistently showed republicans more closer than what they really are and they have a conserv bias and I am not going by that poll.

As far as turnout, I Cook said today that democratic turnout will be better than what it was in 2004, most conserv are upset at the war. And you said we shouldn't go by Rasmussen poll, he predicted all the states right in 2004. So, I can go by his poll rather than Strategic Vision.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rasmussen says that the Dem turnout will be up this year. And Rasmussen is more conserv than the Washington Post, so I don't buy that story.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I am saying that you should look at the congressional ballot and look at the polls and you can tell by the way the polls are that the Dem turnout will be higher, by the mere fact that the Dems are picking up 6-7 gov seats and 3-6 senate seats. If the Dems weren't picking up seats then you can say that there won't be a higher than usual turnout.  And by the way in 2004, the liberal Time magazine predidcted that Bush will win the 2004 election based on turnout. Based on the way the polls were going on the final weekend of the campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, but you conservatives miss the fact that when the republicans held the lead on congressional ballot, then they beat the Dems. But now that the Dems have the lead on the congressional ballot, you say it is wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying that you say that we should discount the congressional ballot because the Dems are ahead, but when the Republicans were ahead, everyone were predicting victory. I am saying the generic ballot test has never been wrong and if it is predicting a Dem victory, I am going to say the Dems will have a good election night. And by the way Rasmussen who predicted the election outcome rightt in 2004, said that Dems will have more Dems come out. So, I don't believe that other than MN and NJ, the Dems are in trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying the Dems have as good of a chance as anyone to gain seats in the Senate because they have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot test stated by Rasmussen and Bush is at Nixonian approval ratings and the Dems will win races. And the Dems aren't going to lose WA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I didn't say I am calling a close race. But I am saying that the Dems have a better chance than ever before to gain alot of seats because they have a 10 point lead on the congressional ballot. And the Bush Nixonian approval ratings.

The trends for the Dems is picking up seats, not losing seats. And it is perfectly fine to predict that because most pundits have Dems picking up seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I am saying is that we are in good position to win seats, the Dems.  Just like the republicans were in the same position due to the Clinton poll numbers in 1994. If the Bush numbers were above 50%, I can see the Dems not winning a whole lot of seats, but with the economy is back being terrible and with the Iraq war dragging, the Dems are going to pick up seats.

And as far as the conservative comment, since Alcon is an independent, I was referencing that he is more conserv than I am.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, I didn't mean to imply that he wasn't a conserv, I meant to imply he was more to the right than I am being a liberal. He isn't a Republican, he is simply to the right of me, so he isn't going to see things the same way I am.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that the trends right now shows that the GOP are going to lose seats. But there is no wave yet to sweep them out of office. I feel that I can predict like everyone on this site that the Dems will be able to win seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They aren't dishonest. They are well thought out like most people on this site. How can my predictions be intellecually be dishonest and most pundits say the same thing that the Dems will gain seats but don't have control of the Senate yet. That isn't dishonest to me.

I am not calling any races, I am predicting trends. You think I am calling races I am not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just said that WA is a very liberal state and just like it is hard for Dems to win TN and MO, it is hard for Republicans to take away NJ or WA. That is all I am saying. And by the way, I have contradicted myself, because the political climate has changed due to the war in Israel. Wars always favor Republicans, and the Dems would of faired much better had this war not taken place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all depends on the way you poll, registered voters or likely voters as well. And depending on the sample as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His sample of 400 people isn't large enough to get a very accurate reading. That's why most people don't take hime seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, I do understand how margin of error works. I am saying that his samples are too small to get good reading on the race. That's why he isn't reliable. Maria Cantwell will have no problem in this race, she will win by the same margin as John Kerry got electied. The republicans will not get above 46% in the state. Most Dems pick up the support of the previous presidential candidate does. And I don't see her losing it in this political climate.

This state isn't even on the Republicans top targeted list, MN and NJ is. And Cantwell is the right person to win this race. And her approval ratings aren't bad enough to lose at this time. She has good approval ratings. Not like DeWine or Santorum or Conrad Burns.

I guess what I am saying is that until McGavick takes the lead, like Kean has done in the Quinnipiac poll, I don't think he will win. In order to win you should at least take the lead at least some part of the campaign. And until he has done so, I am not going to consider him able to win this race. And he hasn't done so in none of the polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not ignoring the margin of error. I said that the Dems usually pick up the support of the winning presidential candidate in the state. And Cantwell's approval ratings aren't bad enough to lose at this time. Right now this race leans Democratic, but yes Cantwell is vulnerable. But until her approval ratings go down I am not going to predict that she is losing.

And right now Bush is at record disapproval rating in Wa, and it makes me think twice about McGavick winning. She has polled by some polls not all the polls inside the margin of error. She can lose but not at this time she will lose. She polled outside the margin of error in Rasmussen and he got every race right in 2004.

And also, Zogby has had Maria Cantwell outside the margin of error for a long time, that's why I don't think McGavick will win. That's why I think Cantwell will win.  And there are more registered Dems in WA that's why I think Cantwell will win. And Bush polling in Wa is at 36% that's why I think Cantwell will win. All of those factors are going for Cantwell.

And like I said Elway was off because you have to factor in LV/RV and WA is hard to predict like most battleground states. And this is a senate race, it is easier to predict than a governors race. And Bush carried Rossi alot more because the republican turnout was higher than average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby was the most accurate pollster in 1996 and 2000. And Rasmussen had 2004 right and all of them are showing Cantwell ahead right now. Outside the margin of error.

And if you go by the pundits if the generic ballot test translates into election victory, the Dems will not lose seats.

Look, I can root for my candidate and you can root for yours and we will see who is right on elections day.

Right now the Bush poll numbers in the state at 36% doesn't translate into a republican victory at this time.

Yea, you say that Republican registraints and Democratic registraints aren't public yet but as a whole, because WA is a Democratic state, there are alot more Democratic registraints than republican registraints.

As far as LV/RV, you get a different result if you use either one. Usually, Dems usually do better on likely voters than do registered voters. It all depends on turnout and I think that because Wa is a Democratic state and it is unfavorable to Bush you will get Cantwell winning. This race is going to be close.

As for the presidential level, the same people that voted for Kerry are not going to drop their support and vote for McGavick. Anyway Dems outnumber Republicans in the state so with party registration in the state I give the edge to Cantwell.

And Strategic Vision usually go by the more conservative sample and Zogby go by the more liberal sample. It all depends on where you poll in the state. And just like Zogby was off Strategic Vision had its bad points as well.