Mason-Dixon: Allen (R) increases lead over Webb (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew that once mason-dixon came out, Webb will be even down further. But I think this poll is understated I think that Rasmussen is right, he is only down by 11. And also, everyone says that Mason dixon is the most accurate, they didn't fair that good in the 1990's where they predicted in 1994 Senate race right in TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I am saying is that you have to average all the polls together, you don't just take one poll company and then think that they will rule the whole universe.  Also, they were wrong in MN in 2004. Zogby was praised in 2000 and I rather go by Zogby. Also, you have to look at turnout, Mason-dixon overstates the republican turnout. In 2002 and 2004 republican turnout was high and when the republican turnout was down, in the 1990's, it didn't fair that well, and there isn't going to be the same type of republican turnout like they had in the past, so you can't go by Mason Dixon all the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't forget ARG  and Gallup haven't released poll numbers on OH and MO Senate races and they tend to favor Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evey polll company says it. Granted that with this war in Israel will give it a boost, but Bush will bad poll numbers will drown out his poll numbers. I am not saying that the conservatives will not come out, the libertarians, like the Ross Perots, and the Jesse Venturas and the Buchanans won't come out and vote for Bush and OH is a liberatarian state.

Alcon, all I am saying, is that you should consider the conservative ones as well as the liberal ones. And don't forget, eventhough Gallup got the states wrong, they predicted Bush would win 274 electorial votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And just like in Zogby in 1996 and in 2000, sometimes turnout can overcome a deficit. And the only way the Dems will make significant gains in either House is if in one house they will do such thing. I am in the point of view that if only the Senate flips will the House flip. I am not at the point of view that we will have a split Congress.  For the past 10 the voters have never selected a split system of Congress. And Chuck Todd says such, that only if the Senate flips will the Dems win the House. And as far as Mason-Dixon, Knight Ridder sponsors Mason-Dixon polls and I think he may not lean to the right but hid newspapers are on the more independent side. And the headquarters of Knight Ridder newspapers are in conserv San Jose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I didn't say that I said that you should be weary of polls that constantly show GOP ahead, just like conserv are weary of Zogby polls that show Dems ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is one thing you forget about M-D just like in MN turnout can overcome a deficit on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well just like mason dixon got its props in 2002 and 2004,  Zogby got its props in 1996 and 2000. So, I wouldn't bet on M-D as being all that reliable. Look, all I am saying is that we as Dems should be weary of polls that consistantly show GOP ahead just like conserv should be weary op polls showing Dems ahead like Zogby.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because Mason Dixon understates Dem support. I agree with Rasmussen, I believe that Allen is ahead by 11 points not by 16. Mason-dixon and Quinnipiac uses registered voters not likely voters and I don't trust poll companies that  uses registered voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said the sample is small that understates Democratic support. Most liberal pollsters uses a 1000 people like Zogby and Gallup. And when should we suspect other than that they will have DeWine or Talent ahead, they polled OH and they never had Brown ahead, so I don't expect them to have him ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well I am going to stick with my liberal polls that show Dems leading and have large samples instead of using small samples. I am not going to convince you that Mason Dixon is not conserv and it is conserv and you won't convince me either. The point is is that the only state that is certain is PA. And also, they use different pools of likely voters than the more liberal Zogby.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Alcon, the fact of the matter is that they use a different sample of likely voters than Zogby does or Gallup and that is a fact. The only state that is for sure is PA and even that I can't predict.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that the polling samples can lean to the right or left based on the poll company.  And like I said, since when has Mason Dixon had Brown ahead. The last poll they had was  he was down by 7. So, I don't expect him to be ahead in the next either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think this poll company is accurate. Most of the polls show it a 10 point race and I think that is the more accurate one, not this one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least someone agrees with me. Like I said, the last poll had DeWine up by 7, do you really think that they are going to show Brown ahead of DeWine next time. It is of both, Mason-Dixon uses both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last word on this, Knight Ridder or Mason-Dixon may be independent, but it has a conservative slant. And Dems are leary of this just like the GOP is leary of the Zogby polls, I wouldn't take any biased polls at full face value.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The mason-dixon poll company says it is registered voters most likely to vote. So, they do both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You keep saying that it is liberal, they have never had Brown ahead so I don't think that they will. And they never had Kerry lead in summer or fall in OH.  Look, Mason-Dixon oversamples republicans more than Dems, they simply don't have the liberal sample that Zogby or Gallup. When it selects likely voters, they select a more conservative sample than liberal ones.  And 625 is too small of a sample. The sample of likely voters is the key. And lastly, they predicted more Republicans to turn out than most other pollsters had. Most pollsters had it 35R and they had it 37R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you predict a higher than expected Republican turnout than other pollsters than you will get a more republican sample.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most pollsters have it 35D and mason-dixon always have it 37R and that is the point of contention. Most liberals will not agree with Mason-dixon just like Republicans are going to agree on Zogby. I say that Mason-dixon is just as accurate as Gallup. Look liberals have their pollsters Gallup, Zogby, and ARG, and republicans have theirs in Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, and strategic vision. I would think you will be hard press to find that Dems rely on Mason-dixon. Some people say Strategic Vision is independent. Fox news say it is independent. No pollster is independent, they are just more independent than the other poll company.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that you keep thinking that Masondixon is liberal, it isn't they never had Kerry ahead of Bush in Oh and Brown ahead of DeWine. And the pool size of likely voters is different than most other pollsters. They are an independent poll company but they have a conserv slant and you aren't going to change my mine on that. And also, Survey USA and Columbus Dispatch does mail in ballots and they do phone samples. There is a difference. They poll more republicans and liberal poll more Dems and we wll see which one is correct at the ballot box. This time, maybe Mason-Dixon will be on the losing side like it was in 1992 and 1994 and just like they predicted FL and AZ going to the Republicans in 1996.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush won OH because the oversample of republicans came out. I will just stick with my liberal pollsters. M-d thanks but no thank you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course you don't see it my way because you are not a Democrat. If m-d wasn't so conserv how come conserv listen to them and liberals don't, that should tell you right there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look, polls are snapshots in time, and no matter what a pollster might say, turnout is the key. And no one can predict for sure how the turnout will be and turnout can be the key to Democratic success this fall because they are upset with Bush. As Howard Dean says "turnout can overcome any deficit." He was saying that in reference to Kerry trailing in OH on election it didn't happen but it can be true, just like everyone expected Tom Daschle to beat Thune and turnout was the key in that race on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Zogby was just as good like in 1996 and 2000 when he polled less republicans.