GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happens if Kemp wins the governor race, and the senate race goes to a runoff?

Are Republicans likely to come vote for Walker?

A new poll has Kemp only at 50/47 not 51/44 it's likely Warnock wins outright QU has had Warnock at 50 and Gov race goes to a Runoff

Trafalgar and Emerson polls aren't lining up with other polls in NV, WI and OH a poll shows by change that Nan W is down by 6 pts not 20 and DeWine only won by 3 and if DeWine underperforming like DeSantis did 0.18, OH, NC and FL will go D, Biden is at or near 50 not 41 percent now, we are now starting early voting which benefits Ds not in primary season

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happens if Kemp wins the governor race, and the senate race goes to a runoff?

Are Republicans likely to come vote for Walker?

No, Republicans are low turnout in special elections. Unless Trump does a lot personally ofc.

Rs came out in TX34 special, that's just Rs excuse for losing AK and NY 19 because they flipped a D TX seat no problem there either

Rs also underperform on the ballot when he Trump isn't on the ballot re KY 2019 OH, WVA, and MT Sen and KY Gov 2018, it's not just Special and Cali recall 2021 the R base didn't show up in Cali only in Va


Portman wonby 20 in 2016with Trump and Brown beat Renacci, the Rs blocked Voting Rights Vance is gonna get 0 percent of Blk vote like Renacci did DeWine got 6/12 of Blk vote that's why he is winning now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker son says he's done with him, Walker is running to ban abortion statewide and he paid a female to have an abortion that's why Oz is behind he is too pro life

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

These probabilities are incorrect and this forum has a habit of using the model way out of context. Those results favor the democrats not just because of the results but because those results generally would indicate that it’s a good night for Dems. This assumption doesn’t hold when these two races will go blue strictly due to Oz and Walker being unelectable.

The Republican path is now AZ + NV + holding everything excel PA. Kelly is heavily favored but it’s still Arizona so I would estimate Master’s chances at 10-20%. But if that does happen, we can be 90-95% sure that Laxalt won and basically 100% sure that NC/OH/WI/FL held. In other words, Arizona might be both necessary but also sufficient to flip the senate. So Dems are mightily favored to win the senate at this point but I’d say only 85-90%.

For the same reasons above, the house race is completely unrelated to these results aside from probably a slight bump to Dems in the two PA tossup races due to GOP reputation damage. It certainly does not shift the house race odds by 25%.

Rs aren't holding onto AZ that Masters hasn't lead in a single poll and he's trying to cut SSA in an AARP retirement state like AZ is bad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is done Rs aren't winning GA, AZ, NH and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter Ds are gonna solidify the Senate NV, AZ, GA and PA leans D no matter what Cook does with his ratings the only thing Walker can do like Abrams is force a Runoff
CCM and Barnes and Kotek are down only 2 and you need to be up 5 especially in a blue state to withstand Early voting

Walker is down by 5 in the last poll just like Nastees and Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said he was losing before this allegations and he's not gonna win anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter this race is Lean D anyways either Walker loses on Eday or the Runoff he needs to peel blk voters not white voters away from Warnock and this scandal isn't gonna help him with CCM leading it's already a 51D Senate WI, UT, OH, and NC are Tossups and if we have a clear majority McMullin will caucus with Ds not Rs because Schumer will give him a Chairmanship

I listen to what McMullin said on MSNBC he left wiggle room to be coerced into joining Ds and why would he want to be Ranking member anyways the Senate map is favorable to Ds in 24 and 26 we have FL as a Tossup in 24 if Gwen Graham runs and Collins is DOA in 26 because she Filibuster Voting Rights and Voting Rights wasn't on the ballot in 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker has to peel away middle class blks and females from Warnock not white men like my uncle is middle class and voted for Ossoff and Warnock last time the benefit of Warnock and Kelly is that they have served only 2 yrs not 6 yr terms that's why in the case of Gavin Newsom he had served only 2/4 yrs voters want you to finish your term, my uncle has always been D but there are many like him that aren't willing to go back and vote R again, GA was always changing Chambliss almost lost, Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter were completetove

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I have said many times in OH, WI, GA, NC Rs have to peel not white voters but Blk voters, the Rs disarmed themselves with blk voters when they Filibuster Voting Rights, and females are gonna vote out Collins in 26 because she Filibuster Voting Rights that wasn't on the ballot in 20 due to Biden wasn't in office , why do you think LePage and Poliquin are losing Angus King called Collins out and Ossoff for supporting 2006 version of Voting Rights but not for the People Act, Collins endorsed LePage and he is losing

The blk voters arent gonna vote for Walkers but white voters are and in that QU poll it had a gender gap with female voters

The reason why Rs are now favored in FL because Latinos not Blk people have solidified their support in 24 Scott is on the ballot and he isn't Latino like Rubio he can lose to Gwen Graham

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just because Walker won the debate doesn't put his past behind him Walker has to win blk and female votes and his past still gonna stay with him

It's still a 51/45 Senate to me Nate Silver already says GA and PA leans D while UT, OH, WI and NC are Tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are debating like they normally use to in the past and Warnock said he didn't know if he would support Biden in 24 is that gonna end his campaign mo but Walker did well in the debate and can wind up like he was in the past needing a runoff to save his seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some of this was already coming when Sinema blocked the Voting Rights Act, this isn't news anyways, there was no hope to save the H once Sinema blocked Voting Rights, the Rs write themselves a favorable Congressional map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/herschel-walker-suggests-biden-warnock-005729372.html

Another female comes out against Walker and said he paid for her to have another abortion Safe D no matter what polls say

Warnock has lead in all except R internals like Moore, even QU has Warnock ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Big Data, Wick and Co EFFICIENT, ah yes CO EFFICIENT that showed Zeldin ahead of HOCHUL 48/35 percent says Fetterman is healthy enough to be Senator
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1587031682422644736
Let the Dooming stop and Warnock is at 49% enough to avoid a Runoff and CCM is tied

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

l
There's gonna be early voting just like last time why are users so DOOMERISH WARNOCK we have the Senate anyway

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs picked up 9 H seats, no change in the S and net loss 2 Gov mansions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen one poll on GA runoff but they keep POLL DeSantis v Trump, why because the pollsters got the polls wrong again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see a poll after Thanksgiving that's it for the Runoff it's not like it's in January anymore, but they keep POLL DeSantis v Trump Rs aren't gonna win anyways they don't have any blue state R Govs except VA and NV and Tim Kaine is on the ballot in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't even know whom is leading there isn't any POLL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont need any more polls the way they fouled up the last GA race Trafalgar had it 49/45 Walker which was untrue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You don't have any conservative pollsters showing Walker leading because they know without Kemp Walker is finished Walker only OVERPOLL due to Kemp

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs maxed out their gains already Biden Approvals are only gonna increase because he is sending out 20K student loan Discharge and by June we are all gonna get them has TRUMP or Bush W did that no and we're gonna win KY in 2023 and Rs are gonna win LA

Biden is leading Trump in FL 51/49 where DeSantis and Rubio only won due to October Surprise ian, Trump or DeSantis aren't winning FL ever again by 20%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will be so glad when Ds finally clinch this race for a 51/49 Senate so we don't have any R obstruction on judges

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what to believe with the way they fouled up polling and the Approvals are still wrong IPSOS 37/57, LOL PLSE