GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something tells me Herschel Walker's not gonna be the next Senator from Georgia y'all.https://twitter.com/BrianSlodysko/status/1418616454270885892

This doesn't matter, electorally speaking. Scandals only matter when Democrats are involved. Warnock is still an underdog, since this is a red wave cycle.

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How is it a Red wave cycle and D's are leading or tied in the 304 Blue wall states including NH In order to be a red wave the Rs have to crack the blue wall like they did in CO in 2014 and won IL, WI and PA in 2010, so far they have not, the floor is a 304 blue Senate and ceiling is 55 Senators

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's can loose GA, as the only State we lost on the Senate in 2020 was AL, it's a Tossup unless Abrams rubs for Gov and then it will be Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna loose GA if Abrams don't run for Gov, sorry to say Voter Suppression in a Runoff favors Herschel Walker not Raphael Warnock

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock is gonna lose and Mandel Barnes is gonna win because Warnock and Ossoff ran on 2K checks for everyone and there aren't anymore coming


Those 1400 checks were based on Covid leaving by July 4th we are still in a Pandemic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Republicans nominating Herschel Walker is probably the only way they lose this seat, much like the Ken Buck/Christine O'Donnell nominations in 2010.

Hell, Marjorie Taylor Greene probably could win, and she's insane. (But she's also very unlikely to run).

Laugh now but Larry Elder may upset Newsom in Recall just like Herschel Walker, guess what the last poll had Walker 47/45

It's a Runoff race, it's doubtful that WARNOCK is gonna clear 50% anyhow, it's a Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Folks it's a Runoff state, anything can happen in a Runoff anyways but I wouldn't underestimate Herschel Walker and if I were the Rs in WI I wouldn't underestimate Mandel Barnes either

The only poll in WI are Ds leading Rs 48/44% and GA Walker leading WARNOCK 47/45

The States have been voting partisan Trends since 1996 except for 1992 GA D and 2020 GA D and every state in Midwest voted R in 1988 except for IA and WI that voted for Dukakis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Tossup/Tilt D like WI and NH but the most Vulnerable is Warnock until Abrams announces bid for Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker won't win, Walker hasn't done anything for BLM and what has he done for Blk community, Warnock is gonna stay

But it's going to a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker doesn't need to convert a single college-educated white voter in order to win, he just needs enough Democrats to stay home/be suppressed. Given that this is a Biden midterm, I expect a combination of the two to happen.

Snowkabrador said Warnock, Peters we're gonna lose in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm still thinking Warnock narrowly wins.

Very well possible, especially with Abrams's turnout machine. Kelly is much more likely to lose in AZ imho.

My current expectation is Kelly and Cortez-Masto lose, while Warnock and Hassan hang on.

Rs are always overestimated in AZ and NV on a wave election they had SISOLAK losing in 2018 and Rosen losing to Heller you should know that, Heller whom is the likely nominee for Gov was booed by Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a runoff just like GA Gov so it won't matter until we find out if the incumbents along with Kennedy can pass the 49 percent threshold

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1511363006998925314

Walker will probably only get one term, but he's strongly favored this year thanks to the environment.

He has to win a Runoff unlike Kemp whom is near 50, Walker is at 44 well short of 50

Last poll Walker 44 Warnock 41

You said GA was going R last time and you were wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WARNOCK is gonna win this Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WARNOCK has huge war chest

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker is gonna lose anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker isn't gonna win juicing out rural voters he wants to ban Abortion, and that's when he went from 10 pts ahead to 5 pts down, it's a Runoff state anyways Kemp and Walker are unlikely to avoid a Jan 2023 runoff and what did we learn from last time provisional ballots changes election results so if it's close there is gonna be a Runoff

Last poll had Warnock 50/45, Kemp 50/45

ORDER OF S D MAJORITY
NH 47
NV 48
AZ 49
PA 50
WI 51
GA 52 Runoff Jan
NC 53
LA 54 Runoff Dec

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt isn't that strong he lost to Sisolak already in 2018 when he was leading by 3 pts and the last poll had it WARNOCK 50/45 and CCM 42/34 Rs aren't gonna sweep everything and D's aren't either

It's very likely GA Gov and Sen are both going to a Jan 2023 Runoff anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been a 303 map and 65/60 M vote Election since 2012 but instead of OH and IA as Bellwether states it's been replaced by GA and AZ due to the Death of McCain but McCain was an Environmentalist unlike the status quo GOP and Ducey and McCain family are well liked outside of that Lake and Walker will both lose..
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We don't know about Kemp but it's a Runoff state GA

But according to 538 GA and AZ are not more liberal than WI, PA and MI users knows that but they act like WI is some sort of IA and OH, it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None of these scandals are likely to matter this year. I used to think that McCaskill to Hawley was a huge downgrade, and then Doug Jones lost to Tommy Tuberville. But neither downgrade can compare to Warnock -> Walker.

You also said Loeffler and Perdue were gonna win and beat WARNOCK and Ossoff and that didn't happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Runoff seat Anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably as close to toss-up as it gets right now. Shooting a shot in the dark I'd still give Walker the thin edge but you could probably flip a coin.

WARNOCK is leading 48/44 in the last poll and it's a Jan Runoff like the Gov race if no one gets 50 it goes to a runoff like LA what's so hard about users accepting the fact GA won't be decided on EDay LA and GA are Runoff states

Give the edge to Walker, plse it's been tied in almost every poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is why OH and NC and FL are critical in case Warnock loses abd maybe LA but the runoff is in Dec not Jan and Tim Ryan and Beasley are doing quite well to ensure Ds get to 52 not just 51 I knew GA was gonna be problematic, especially since Abrams trail Kemp in polls but is GA our 52 seat yes and OH is our 53rd

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LA Might go to a runoff if Kennedy doesn't get 50% but it's a Dec Runoff, Nixon has the best chance of winning we haven't seen any polls but the last poll had Kennedy 54% Chambers 17 and Nixon 7% Kennedy well below 60, I am rooting for Mixon he would beat Kennedy in a Dec Runoff not Chambers if it was a Jan Runoff Chambers can win

GA is a runoff state it's unlikely that Kemp will avoid a Jan Runoff if Walker doesn't get to 50%, also OR, WA, CO are all VBM it's possible that Betsy Johnson whom is still a D with Ron Wyden on the ballot beat Kotek by 500

These states especially the Senate and Govs aren't gonna be resolved with instant gratification it's VBM look how long it took us to count PA R primary, of course Rs want to declare victory they think they won and it's not Labor Day we need to wait until Labor Day to see the polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Gas prices and airline tickets are dropping fast that's why Ds are winning again, and it's now 290 fir a round trip ticket, inflation is still high but it's not revolving around gas prices it's revolving around rents which brings up more rental assistance if D's take control

We have had no Section 8 opened back up it was only rental assistance and it was during Boehner tenure when the last one was open,but Gas prices going downis helping Ds

Uses that vote R don't realize what a powerful D Trifecta will do Voting Rights, Section 8 since 2014, Reparations, DC statehood it benefits everyone that D's get the Trifecta, and lastly Student loans Discharge by raising Corporate taxes to 28 percent from 20 percent, we're not at 9 percent unemployment they do t need to be 20 percent that was only supposed to be temp, no one says back to 35

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Runoff race Walker can still win that's why Ds are targeting WI, OH and NC in addition to GA, AZ and PA