KY-Mason Dixon: Sen. Rand Paul +6 on re-election, +9 job approval

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rand Paul is safe

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

more likely to flip than nh (imo)

I could see NH flipping before KY but only if (a) Sununu runs, (b) Sununu's approval rating is at least 70% on election day (he’ll need that to make the case for voting out a strong/popular incumbent + it’s a federal race), (c) he distances himself from Trump and Kim/MTG, and (d) he scores at least 18/20 on my candidate quality evaluation sheet in October 2022.

It’s definitely more likely to flip than AZ and NV, though... I mean, Andy Biggs? The AZ(Q)OP? These guys wouldn’t be able to hold a candle to ALG, Andy Beshear, and the KY Dems if their life depended on it. CCM? Sandoval is the only one who might make it competitive against her, and even he would probably lose 50.06%-47.67%.

Sununu is gonna have answer why did he veto the minimum wage against Hassan and he is vulnerable on that. He has yet to be scrutined by the press, natl press is different than local press

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I bet if we have a Ryan v Mandel poll it would be 47/41 Mandel. KY is very similar to OH that's why Rs shouldn't take OH for granted

Of course Paul is safe, the only person that wants to run against him is Charles Booker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only person willing to challenge Paul is Charles Booker and no one is gonna donate to him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not news that Beshear already took himself out of running for Harris Veep in 2024 and running for Senate in 2022, since he already said on MSNBC, that he is staying put as Gov of KY and wants to run for reelection due to dealing with Covid crisis