Monthly “Rate” House & Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate

Tilt D WI, PA flip D and GA flips R due to Runoff. Lol Hassan is gonna win and Rob Johnson only won by 4 pts, Atlas thinks John'son is unbeatable, I was having the same conversation with Tilts Dem user

Johnson 50/46 Feingold Biden flipped WOW COUNTIES
Toomey 50/48 McGinty Biden flipped Erie, PA
Warnock won by 85K those are gonna be the battleground states

House
Tossup can we wait for Redistricting maps before House is assumed R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R
Senate: Strong Lean R

Have you seen Biden approvals it's 57%


HOUSE IS TOSSUP DEPENDS ON Redistricting but I can see a narrow House majority


SENATE TILTS D WI ROB JOHNSON WON BY ONLY 4 PTS HE ISNT UNBEATABLE AND PA LEANS D WITH Fetterman

GA ISNT SAFE D ITS A RUNOFF STATE AND WARNOCK HAS TO WIN 50 TO AVOID A RUNOFF

Kemp and Collins are slightly favs against Abrams, WARNOCK CAN LOSE

NC AND OH will depend if the Economy rebounded in 2022/ not 2021

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Lean R
Senate: Tilt R (but Tilt D with DC statehood)

D's are targeting Ron Johnson seat and Toomey seat whom only won by 3.5% and Gov Evers and soon to be Gov Shapiro are gonna help us win Senate seats.
House pends on Redistricting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate isn't Lean R with WI, PA, GA as vulnerable seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

D's are gonna win WI too, with Evers as our Gov candidate and GA is a pure Tossups with a Runoff not safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what the new normal Economy looks like, we need to be patient and wait til next yr and rate these ratings again

The election is Oct 2022 not this yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Likely R

Senate: Tilt D (whoever wins the Senate wins 2 out of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania)

The House isn't gone with most of the battleground states are in WI, PA, VA, IL, CA, and AZ, and Latino districts in TX and FL.

Yes TX is gonna gain seats 4 but Rs are gonna lose seats in CA, NY and IL

I think this is right.  The House is basically gone, but Democrats benefit from the Senate map this time so there is reverse 2018 potential. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People want to see D's lose badly in a Midterm and to put ratings on these races with 21 months left and we don't have our user predictions up is silly.

Just like Progressive Moderate has an R favored Senate map the day after the 2020 Election assuming Ducey was gonna run. He still has Mark Kelly losing and Mark Kelly is the favorite now

We don't know the new normal yet next yr and we got a long way to go

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate Leans D with D's netting WI/PA and we don't know yet about GA since Kemp is favored and it's a Runoff state
AZ, NH, NV are slight favs for Inc

I can see a narrow D majority, TX and FL are netting six new seats but inc Govs Cuomo, Cooper, Pritzker, Whitmer and Cali are gonna get rid of RS in Redistricting too

Then there is the Fitzpatrick seat, in a D+3.5 Environment, with Fetterman winning, I can see Fitzpatrick losing this time

It won't be a D+9 Environment, but a D+2.9 can and will happen unless Economy gets better next yr

WI is vulnerable to a D takeover, Evers legalized weed partially

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate: strong Lean R
House: weak Safe R

..

You wish Johnson and Toomey win only by 390K votes on the back of Hillary Clinton emails they won't win again