PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is favored and so is Fetterman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Rick Saccone running for Lt. Gov, PA’s insurrectionist caucus is well represented in 2022.

Lord help us.

Blame Biden low Approvals in Civitas polls he is. Underwater in every state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna get Prosecuted sooner or later he has a Civil lawsuit in NT and a Criminal lawsuit with insurrection and GA meddling Biden won the state narrowly in 2020 and Bob Casey and Wolf are popular too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman was ahead of Oz and it's a pure Tossup, Ds are likely to get a bump with SC pick especially in the Senate in WI, PA and LA which LA s going to a runoff, Warnock got into a runoff with multiple candidates and Kennedy isn't gonna run up the score

Everyone say Barnes can't win he has the same position on every issue as Warnock and Booker elected D's

Do users know that Biden is from PA and it wasn't no fluke he won Pa he will campaign with Shapiro and Fetterman

It's important to note Rs are tied or behind in every swing state Senate race except NV, because Laxalt had a father in the Senate but it's likely CCM will get a bump from KJB since Voting Rights isn't passed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's likely a 304/234 map anyways because of 4 percent unemployment they just poll Biden Approvals and spend money on that in this Pandemic, but Data pollster probably will eventually start polling these states.

Biden is close enough 45)5o to duplicate the 304 map and it's a Pandemic what do you expect and it's VBM and WI, PA and MI Gov and Sen races the urban vote come in last and put the D's on top that's why so many Ds making R NUT map screws up the compiled map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is favored just like Fetterman, Biden Approvals are back Even now it won't be long before QU has Biden at 49% it's a 270 map when BIDEN APPROVALS ARE EVEN, ITS BEEN EVEN ALL ALONG, THEY WERE ONLY UNDERWATER DURING Debt CEILING FIGHT

That's why the Sa are expected to keep Senate it goes around 270 blue wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/pasen?src=hashtag_click


Game changer Fetterman tied in PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is 9 pts on OZ and 3 pts behind McCormick that's within margin of error if Shapiro wins so will Fetterman but there are zero polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is definitely not losing if Shapiro wins he is tied with McCormick and up nine against Oz

It's fits in with users still holding out hope with Biden at Even Approvals that the Rs are gonna somehow hold onto WI and Pa and pickup NV and AZ, lol OH PREDICTIVE correctly predicted Kelly winning in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any reason why there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about this race?

It seems as if the state GOP and the media have been focused on the Senate race. Especially odd since I think Barletta and Mastriano are both horrible candidates for a very winnable race like PA-GOV in a Republican year.

Is Shapiro just that strong of a candidate that people just expect him to win in spite of the political winds?

Combination of a completely uncompetitive D primary and a completely stupid GOP clown car primary, minus the interesting personalities like we have in the Senate primary. Nobody gives a sh*t about Mastriano or Barletta or White. They're all boring. At least there's been some fun jabs between Oz and McCormick.

This is why I think Shapiro could win even if the Republicans hold the Senate seat. He's a strong candidate who has the full backing of his party, while his Republican opponents are unimpressive.

Yea, Shapiro has much better chances of winning then what ever democrat wins the nomination for senate. I wouldn’t put it in the top 3 competitive gov races

Shapiro might be strong but PA is a classic swing state in a Republican year. At this point I would be (pleasantly) surprised if they don't elect a Republican Senator and a Republican Governor

Lol it's not a Republican yr if Biden Approvals are Even do you know in ,2010/2014 what the vote totals were it was 33/33 M not 65/650 M that we got in 2016/ or 80/75M and Biden Approvals were even 50/45 in 2020 they are at 49% now, it is a 270 map when Biden is at 49%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a poll but it's a 303 map not a 413 map the pollster above wbrooks thinks it's a D nut map doesn't 2020 teach us anything about overpredicting in order for a red state to turn blue we need a Mason Dixon poll to talk or Traggy poll the other polls are pure partisan

That's why you had in two weeks CRIST ahead, DeSantis up by 16 and then 11, Abbott is only up by 2 but Beto isn't ahead

Charles Booker was 20 pts behind in the Mason Dixon poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

Lol pbower2A just said 44% Biden is at is the new 50, did you know how many votes we gotten on 2010/14 R election it was 82M it was same day voting we are gonna suppass that 125M vote cases close Shapiro wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

Corbett lost by 9 pts that's why Wolf won it was against Corbett whom was deeply unpopular not because Wild has so much energy and Wolf won again by 17 I'm 2018 only because he ran with Bob Casey Jr apples and oranges to 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Wolf won twice so big in 2014/ against Corbett and 2018/ he ran with Casey and won by 17 this is a dead even race because Rs are much stronger but D's have the advantage that's why they recruited Shapiro not Lamb or Keynetta that could of lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

You do realize we had 82 M total votes in 2010/14 and since then it was 125 M vote Turnout you do realize that due to VBM it was same day voting in 2010/13 that's why your prediction of ab R nut map is wrong and you have Kelly losing and he is winning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a darn poll forget who Trump endorse to see Shapiro where he stands just like we need an OR Gov poll Betsy Johnson can tip OR to Rs, a ME Gov poll Mills is endangered and WI, PA and MI poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

Biden Approval are even 467/49 and Biden won the 303 map at 50/45 with even Approvals we will win our 303 states and with 110/15 vote Turnout we can get 413 map

D's are reregistering and registering to vote in the COVID booths and Voting locations next to them for the Homeless canvases on Cali if they're doing it here it's all over

Wolf won so big in 2014/ it was Corbett and he won by 17 in 2018  he ran with Casey, its gonna be alot close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Shapiro like Mark Kelly and Fetterman are our best recruit it's gonna be difficult when we have won PA consistently for Rs to win back PA they only won because D's errored in 2016 not to nominate Sestak whom was beating Pat Toomey in all the polls and nominated Kate McGinty

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Shapiro is gonna win this race it's a 303 Map or will be because Gas prices are going way down from 7.00 it's 5.50 now, we won MI, Pa and WI on Provisions ballots all these users think White voters are underestimated they're not it's Minorities that are underpolled they teach you this in Civics class in Undergrad, MINORITIES NOT WHITE VOTERS ARE UNDERPOLLED

They said during Reagan Era minority vote didn't participate because they were content with Project life, now there are no projects they participate now with urban poverty

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, there is a hidden Blk and Brown and Female vote in this Environment, that's why we outnumber Rs 65/65M votes it's called wave insurance and we won the big three narrowly in 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users know it's a 303 map and they try to pretend the question is Gov Evers will he and Barnes both win in 22 just like they won in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win anyways as well as Whitmer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro and Fetterman and Mark Kelly are our strongest recruits it's not likely they lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538890560328679426

This is hilarious for a nationalized governor race in a swing state. Seriously, the fact that Mastriano doesn’t even have $500,000 at this point signifies his campaign is not getting better and that he’s heading for a loss.

Yeah, I certainly hope this continues that way. Mastriano and Oz may be huge blunders for Republicans, blowing perhaps winnable races.

However, I won't get too excited until Shapiro and Fetterman are declared winners.

Everyone knows the insurrection is having a damaging effect on the brand of Rs too, the goal is to win as Many Senate seats and if we lose the H win it back in 24, Rs aren't winning a Boehner supermajority H 241 that's not gonna be insurmountable come 24 but I hope we keep the Trifecta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's no persuading alot of these users they are so convinced that Biden Approvals are so low that Ds can't recover and we have to see when we vote, APPROVAL RATINGS LIE, and Trump had the same Approvals that Rs critique Biden on

I had the same argument with Uncle Sam, Rs within 3 in PA and 2 in WI it's Lean R but whatever, provision ballots put us over the top last time if it's close we win , 300K provision ballots and they favor D's that's why we won GA Ossoff and WARNOCK we didn't win GA but by 50K votes users act like we won GA by 5 pts