2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the same Politician account that made D nut maps in 2018 we don't know if it's the same user Solid said the old Politician gave it to someone else

Look thru the user prediction maps he made D nut maps thru 2018 and made one in 2020 but stopped posting in the Summer of 202o so whatever politician say ignore it

The old Politician tried to ban people for saying NV was Lean R when SISOLAK was losing to Laxalt now the account says Laxalt is a lock for NV and he hasn't lead in a single poll since Dobbs, lol Laxalt is a retread that's gonna lose Biggly on Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter because a Prez race is right around the corner that Senate map in Casey, Stabenow and Kaine is not good in 24 if we lose control Adam Schiff said he will lead D's effort to take back 15 seats in 24, Rs had the exact number in 2018 and D's gained 12 seats, 12 seats is nothing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, D4P is also the only pollster who found Walker up in the 7-8 recent polls (outside of Bolton's PAC but that's a whole other thing...)

If the Generic Ballot is R+3, it makes sense for them to have Walker ahead in a state which is still more Republican than the nation. Besides, you left out the part where they had Walker ahead narrowly - with 49% to Warnock's 47%. Still a very close race!

Walker is down in Survey USA by 9 pts the same Surveys USA that predicted Warnock to beat Loeffler, the Rs aren't gonna sweep everything

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-favored-win-senate-first-time-538-1728325

Since Rs want to boast about the H D's have a better chance to have a 52/48 Senate and OH and NC are wave insurance but definitely we're gonna have a 52/48 Senate and Ron Johnson whom won by just 3 not 10 is DOA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not prepared to list the H is gone until EDay they said the samething that the Senate was gone and we are certainly can wind up with 52 or more seats you never know we gotta see what happens in FL 13 but it's a tough cycle for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-bolton-trump-poison-political-suicide_n_62e737a0e4b0c60a56695fb8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs can forget about a 245 H and 54 R Senate that's not happening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do you know why Rs are getting crushed among Blk and Brown and single females because they believe in tax cuts for wealthy

The sole reason why Rs improved in 2020 they gave out 2K bucks to everyone, now the Federal stimulus is OVER, now it's ENHANCED CHILD TAX CREDITS

That's why Collins won unexpectedly she negotiated stimulus checks, but now she is blocking BBB and it will come down to Sinema due to not wanting to raise taxes she will lose in 26

Vance isn't down by 14 he is down 6 he deserves to get 2 percent of the Blk vote while DeWine will get 6 percent like he did in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are alot of naysay on this forum and Rs aren't gonna do anything more that what is going on now, why because we are under R budget we can't raise Corporate taxes for new programs, so users think R Congress is gonna change things no it wont

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map and we can wind up with Charlie Crist as Gov 224 DH and 54 Senate seats GA is going to a Runoff it's important we nail down OH and NC and PA and WI that gives us 53 seats before GA runoffs

The gas prices are going way down you see Buttigieg out again after he was missing during the high Gas prices it won't be a landslide

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why we are in a Recession and D's are doing well Minnesota Mike is posting positive poll numbers because we are dependent on Entitlements, Obamacare as well as Medicaid, Medicare and SSA are Entitlements and as long as we are in a Pandemic normal Recession rules don't apply to Politician because Stimulus checks are Gone except for enhanced child tax credits

People on Disability and SSA are getting a fat raise 192 next yr that's 1300 that eliminates food stamps but not Medicaid plus Medicare dual program 😃😃😃

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

The same polls had Brown winning and he won stop with this OH is Safe R, Rs don't own OH, Biden was Verp to Obama and Obama didn't win OH by himself he won with Biden 2008/12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that Rasmussen is terrible, they should still be giving results of like R+5 in a neutral environment. Not only is their GCB close but it keeps narrowing.

There was a point where I think reality was truly R +6 or 7 and November couldn’t come fast enough, but at this point we need time for a change of course. 52-54 dems would not be out of the question which is enough for extremist legislation

If it’s any consolation, polls in the individual races are almost definitely overestimating Dems in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania and Ohio. I still ultimately expect Democrats to win those races, but by small margins (except for Ohio because Democrats obviously aren’t flipping a Trump+8 state this year).

Ohio definitely. The Dems could have a great night and hold GA, NV, AZ, pick up PA, WI, NC while even gaining 5 House seats AND still lose Ohio by 4%. Ohio is a red state, I expect Biden +2 seats to stay blue long before Ohio flips.

Ohio flips before NC or a net gain in the House

Ehh, polling has very much overestimated Dems in Ohio.

This is objectively false.  If you look at the Atlas final polling averages in statewide Ohio races from 2016 - 2020, they consistently overestimate the final Democratic vote share by about 1%-2%.  The issue is that in Ohio, the undecideds tend to break Republican (at least in statewide races).  In that respect, the Ohio polls can be quite useful.

Being down in multiple polls, isn't a polling error being down in 1, poll is a polling error every poll has Vance down 6 pts same with Oz every poll has Oz down by 6 pts Oz and Vance won't win being down in every poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So we’ve gone back from “GCB will be far more Republican than 2010” to “atypical midterm/2002 redux”, then? Got it.

Lol it's a 303 map with wave insurance it's not an R Environment it's a neutral yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1555700718819872773

That part I'm more suprised about is how do 16% of people still "not know" who they're going to support on the GCB. And it's not even like this "undecided" % has been going down any. That seems awfully high, and is way higher than we saw in Pres matchup polls.

Rs were still losing in the Senate races pre Dobbs Biden 33% Approvals 40/39% Mark Kelly we just expanded our leads and OH and NC came into play after Dobbs

It's always been a 303 map with wave insurance even in 2016 Hillary lost but it was still a 303 map😊

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't offered any new program yet what alternative have they offered to Voting Rights they just blocked it but Rs even if they lose would lose alot more seats if they didn't have this right wing CRT helping them on Gerrymandering

Rs aren't Winning without this Crt and they beat D's lost in 1994/2010/2014 when they 60 plus seats with a Right wing CRT Kennedy affirmed Gerrymandering

This Crt had been Right wing since 1991, before 1991 there was no gerrymandering

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Gov race is gonna dictate the Senate race the D's already count WI and PA as Pickups because Johnson in 2010/16 ran with Gov Walker, he is running with Gov Evers, he only won by 3 pts and that's not a landslide, Rs are underperform in NC and OH Brown is counting OH as a 52 ND seat, he said he cannot win reelection without Ryan winning in 24, he is worried about Josh Mandel, not WI so any seats can become PA plus and give D's 52 seats the Rs have 20 Rs up and only 15 McConnell said Vance is more vulnerable than Johnson because OH is an open seat

So users think OH, WI and NC are safe R and all three races are now 3 MOE Beasley was down by 3, Ryan is up by 3 and Barnes is up by 2 isn't correct we can win any combo to get 52)48 GA is going to a Runoff anyways and that NC Gov race in 24 is not safe R, why are Ds overperformed in NC Cooper has a 55 percent Approvals like Beshear

Beshear isn't DOA in 23 either there is no poll showing Beshear losing but when Bevin was toast they showed many polls showing him losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here is a reason why FL is getting completetive it's a Listener Group poll no specific numbers but Crist beating DeSantis by 13

https://twitter.com/PollingBad2022/status/1555287974194999296?t=ZsIKyn6jXaxA7NAQVRD91Q&s=19

Everyone thought Rubio and DeSantis we're gonna win by +10, FL is an R 3 state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why we don't have any WI polls on the Eve of a primary that is very weird

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe in Rassy polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They had Reynolds up 56/41 she is gonna win 51/43 not 15 because IA three is gonna be close. Reynolds will win by 8 just like Trump did she only won by 3 last time, so the Kelly poll 54/40 8s just as ridiculous as Reynolds up 56/41

Cindy Axne isnt gonna lose by 8 that polls have her down by it's more like a 3 pt race now but she is now behind

Fetterman, Shapiro and Ryan aren't up 10 they're probably up 5.5 and so is Kelly, their all up 49/44 and when the MQK poll releases next week Evers is gonna be up 49/45 overMichels and Barnes is gonna be up 47/43 just like the last MQK poll has both Barnes up 46/44 and Evers up 48/40 WI Guarantees the 303 blue wall

It's not Lean R like MT Treasure think even if Johnson is up he won't be up 10 more like 47/43 within MOE but MT Treasure thinks WI is non competitive

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We must be careful about GCB because some polls since D's raised taxes are showing some R momentum like in GA and TX we're not gonna win every race anyways it's a 303 map anyways but I'm Red states they don't like tax increases but Ryan, Fetterman and Beasley are gonna win and Crist and Demings can too but some races it's gonna spell trouble like Cindy Axne since Inflation reduction Act she is now down 8 and NEB 2 we are now down

Like TX I don't think Beto is gonna win with tax increases but FL, Crist was an R already and won't raise TAXES

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know they are skeptical about OH but Vance has a 28 percent Approvals he isn't gonna make that up with Blk voters and females around the state

I actually have Ryan winning over Barnes I know that's not the 303 map but Ryan has been averaging 5.5 in the polls we only seen 1 poll with Barnes ahead 2 46/44 and some polls have BEASLEY behind, I put it all on my map as wave insurance but Ryan has been looking good and average 5 5 like Fetterman

I think that MQK poll is gonna have Barnes up 47)43 and Evers up 49/44, that was a close call that Kleefisch didn't win I am so happy

If Kleefisch won it would of been opposite Johnson 47/43 and Kleefisch up 49/44, that's how close we were gonna lose WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

MQK poll had Barnes up 46/44 and they are polling the race W, Johnson never wins by more than 3 not ,10 pts Cook has WI Tossup and NC Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

75 chance Barnes is up 47/43 and 25 percent chance Johnson will be up 47/43 and Evers will be up 49/44 100 percent because Kleefisch isn't on ballot WI is Tossup told D