2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is 150 days from now it's not OVER FOR DS, eventhough everytime Rs get a lead which is infrequently users like to declare it's over in 2010/2014 the Rs lead the whole time on GCB

Because it was 10% unemployment and Obamacare was unpopular

The GCB goes back and forth between very pro R bias Rassy polls 49/40 and You Gov polls  the last You Gov had it 43/40 pro D the Fox polls already declared the H going R so of course Rassy have Rs plus 9 on GCB

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls were correct in 306 except the MOE but I'm Red states they had McGrath within 4 and Harrison and Cunningham winning, did they wrongly predict Hickenlooper or Mark Kelly to lose no they didn't and Progressive Moderate thinks Mark Kelly is DOA, wrong his is leading Masters 47/41

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GCB is 35/34 tied so all this Doom.and Gloom isn't necessary


https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA?t=TBOKeNd7YPei_NlqPCCACQ&s=09

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What is the change for Morning Consult/Politico?

Emerson and Rassy do R phone based polls whereas You Gov and Morning Consult do On line polls that's the H effect in both polls, since Fox already declared Rs gaining the H it's not news worthy Rassy has it R plus 8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/SienaResearch?t=qGxZE-g0HfOCHyyssV6Q4w&s=09

I don't know if anyone posted but Siena has a tied race 41/40 for control of Congress

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is losing in every poll Rs don't own the Ref states gas prices are going way down, for the last time Biden isn't Hillary 2=o

Have you looked at the state by state polls you guys are losing in every one of them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dobbs just like the war in Ukraine is effecting polls the Dobbs decision has hurt Rs, but the Ukraine war helps Rs, Rs need to realize it's not 2004, it's still a 303 map we're gonna win MI, WI, PA, AZ, GA, CO and NV we will see about the others but all this talk about an R sweep isn't gonna happen

Even before Dobbs it still was a 303 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

You’re missing the biggest problem with this poll, which is that it is RV rather than LV, which is near-inexcusable at this point. Enthusiasm gap matters at this point. It’s also weighted to a presidential general electorate in terms of race, which is ludicrous.

The polls just goofed up the MD Gov race and most polls had FRANCHOT winning Rs are so much believe in polls and we still have to Vote

The MD poll just proved that you can't trust POLLS don't Rs ever learn about Poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uncle Sam and many Rs like to cherry pick Biden Approvals and not look at the state by state polls if Biden Approvaks are so bad Murray wouldn't be winning 51/33%

Rs, BUT, BUT THE POLLS, YEAH THE POLLS LIKE PA R PRIMARY WERE WRONG THEY PICKED FRANCHOT instead of Perez and Perez had the momentum and thus Moore won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am an optimist when it comes to voting until the last vote is counted didn't the models say D's were gonna net gain H seats and win ME and NC in 2020 they were wrong then and they are wrong in WI all the pundits had Walker fav in 2018 and like Johnson,  they have him as the clear Fav, Walker lost and so will Johnson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol look at the state by state polls it's still a 303 map Morning Consult rebuted Traggy Trump poll and shows Biden up 45/41 on Trump whereas Traggy has Trump ahead 47/42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GCB 46 each CNN


https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA?t=0dNE6SGnthATxsi5rLlFbg&s=09

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AARP poll of likely voters in 56 competitive congressional districts has R's up 46-42 in districts which voted for Biden by 6.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

It's the same 303 blue wall map we won last time but Tim Ryan like Brown did in 2018 is overperformed , what's so hard about Rs acknowledge that we are the Favs in the EC college if Trump runs he will be a 2* loser

I can see Ryan winning Franken, Beasley or Demings winning giving D's a 54/46 S even if Rs take a 15 seat majority, if Rs get a 15 seat majority that's the ceiling 217 is the floor and we won that in 2018 24 we have another 303 Senate map and can win H back in 2 yrs with Biden on  ballot Adam Schiff's said that so a H maj will be short lived

The IA poll shows Rs winning 3/4 districts the same number they won last time so No, you guys aren't winning the Sen, NV, AZ, and GA are safe and WI and PA are Tossup and OH, NC, FL are wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll?t=x1MSpTKDWMvPr4KV2arYTw&s=09

QU HAS DS AHEAD ON GCB 45/44 PERCENT EVENTHOUGH THEY HAVE BIDEN AT RECORD LOW APPROVALS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways with wave insurance if SISOLAK is ahead in Lombard internal it's a 303 map

Reynolds is crushing DeJear on another poll it has it 56/41 Reynolds and Grassley is up 52/43 we have a better chance in OH and NC and FLORIDA and TX than IA and MO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

...
I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

My heart can't take many shocks like this.

There are gonna be upsets we didn't expect to lose seats in 2020 and we are gonna do well in the Sen and Gov not so well in the H divided Govt setting the stage up for 24 if can win back the H in 24, but if we win OH, NC, TX and FL we automatically win the H anyways we have a better chance in Blk states and OH is a Blk state as well as NC and FL and TX

The Senate map in 22/24/26 doesn't bode well for Rs with Casey, Kaine Sinema up in 24 and Collins is DOA in 26 I don't care how many seats Rs het gain in the H that Senate map is bad for them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People love to post about the GCB and Rs ahead but we know it's a 303 map the Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 with Hillary and they won't crack it now the rest is wave insurance like Ryan ahead of Vance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users keep critiquing polls weren't the polls just wrong about the FRANCHOT winning and Wes Moore but Rs believe the polls

Everything isn't about Approvals or polls it's good to think independent because in 2020 they had Ds netting seats we lost Seats, it's a 303 map anyways with wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

They were not wrong in Blue states Biden won them they only were wrong in red states it's a 303 map the only flaw in the polls were the MOE and they correctly predicted Ossoff and WARNOCK to win and Traggy had Warnock losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not forget AK it's a 3 person race, Murkowski is favored but we have to see what happens on 8/16, but Mary Peltola was beating Palin but losing to Begich, once 8/16 the is resolved we will kñow about AK

No polling most of our primaries will be over and FL 13 in September anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs don't want to pass things they want to keep taxes low that's all they want to do, McConnell said if Rs in charge no new programs and Trump said he's gonna cut Govt employees

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

The economy is worsening, and GOP small dollar donors are more working class than the college educated wine moms who dominate ActBlue. This makes sense to me.

Maybe they feel they don’t need to donate because after 40 years of fighting they won on Roe.

Lol did you hear what McConnell said out of his own mouth if Rs get control NO NEW PROGRAMS and Trump said he is gonna cut employees, who is gonna DONATE FOR THAT EXCEPT THE PARTISAN

Rs gave us Stimulus checks under 9 percent unemployment in 2020, there are no more stimulus checks, voters are gonna see should Rs get in control nothing is gonna change and we're gonna have to start paying Paygo for Students Loans

We haven't had a Stimulus check since March 2021

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The recession and GDP growth and the war in Ukraine, the issue isn't black or brown it's with white females they have anxiety over the war in Ukraine , why hasn't it ended Russia forthe third time interfered in our election Kennedy Assassinated, WikiLeaks with Hillary and Russia and Ukraine war

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

Democracy Corps

GCB

50/48

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, this forum is truly a special level of dumb. RV polls don't mean anything.

Your R nut map has -0 probability , these users make R nut maps and thinks it's gonna happen just like they made R nut map had Bevin winning over BESHEAR they were wrong then and wrong now

Progressive Moderate keeps sporting ab R nut map