2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not just about abortion it's Rs position on taxes they blocked BBB due to they didn't want Corporate taxes to rise from 20 to 27 percent


Warren says the Wealth tax whenever's D's get the Secular majority hopefully in 22 because 20 Rs are up and 14 D's S are up, D's must take adantage will erase the 50K in Student loan debt of 55M people it generates 3T over the course of a decade but Rs are against it of course

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think we're all underestimate Biden hasn't Biden exceeded expectations before 2008/12/2020 yes he have over and over again, this is tye same Biden that helped Obama win IN in 2008 and IN Sen in 2012

2016 Hillary won the PVI that doesn't count, really the R party hasn't won since the Gingrich Revolution and Bush W

The Rs have won 2 Elections in 12 yrs in 2010/14 when we had 10% unemployment, don't underestimate Biden, Beasley Ryan especially CRIST they can win even in a Pandemic Environment, if we win those irregardless in what happens in the H we will have enough S seats to win back the H in 24

54 percent said Romney favors the rich and 40% said he fav the poor in 2012, dur to Rs tax cuts we need a Wealth tax to eradicate Student loans 50K

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA?t=wsJ_eQIQ2Sze3lj0Gmx9_w&s=09

GCB 44D/42 It's not gonna be a catastrophe
Bullfinch Group, all the naysayers out there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's so funny they keep giving us these GCB nets but no state by state and we just got another poll showing Beasley tied with Budd that's not an 8 pt GCB R lead if we are tied in a wave insurance seat like NC and a Phillips Academy poll has Crist and Demings tied in FL an 8 pt lead is Rs winning PA like Corbett did in 2010 and there is no PA poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it's over and Kelly leads in AZ 50/33 and WARNOCK is leading 50/45 and SISOLAK is leading 46/33 Biden has the same Approvals 45/54 as Trump did in both 2018/20 and Trump lost the EDay but gained H seats and at 44 the inc always loses H seats just wait till we vote, it's 5 mnths it's June and Summers are short

Rs can't call AZ polls biased because a St Leo poll has DeSantis up 49/33

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This 70 percent gas been set in motion already with Trump in 2020, 70 percent on the wrong track with a Honeymoon period of us getting Stimulus checks anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Golden is leading Poliquin by 8 pts stop with this ME 2 going R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28

It substantiates my thinking that Republicans had a "good year" if they win 20 seats and a landslide if they win 30 or more(all the tossups plus some safer Democratic ones). If they win more than 30, I think Biden should probably retire. It would mean the brand has gotten toxic under him.

Rs are not winning 20 seats and Biden isn't at 35% Approval he is closer to 50 than 40 Whitmer is leading by 23 pts if Biden was so low Whitner wouldn't be up by 23 You Gov has him at 44/49 and Trump at 40/54 not QU 35/59

It's closer to 10 not 20 but it's still possible D's can hold the Trifecta
The Election is Nov not now

The same QU that had Biden ahead by 14 pts against Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a VBM anyways H and S races and Gov races weren't called immediately if it was close it came down to Provisional ballots anyways it can take hrs or days to count all the ballots, but this is excitthat D's are now AHEAD

Back2Donating again, this is like 2012 right after Akin comment

I expect Beasley, Demings and Crist to get a second chance Ryan was already leading Vance he is as weak as Mandel in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this is it, if Rs do poorly, in this Election they are gonna lose everything, DC and PR statehood and possibly two more SCOTUS picks in Child's and Kruger, the LGBT said if Schumer sends Biden a Crt packing bill he won't veto it, they will ensure that

The Rs only started to recover after Voting Rights was blocked and the Ukraine war had high gas prices, now they are gonna lose again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are in trouble now, we don't hear the same usuals sayings Rs plus 7 but we were leading anyways before Dobbs this no doubt helps even moreso

Whenever things trend down you never hear from Matty Rs plus 7 on Fox POLL, Now It's D's plus 7 HA

It's still a ways to go before the Election Labor Day we should know

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think people don't know who to defy blue wave it's a 303 map but OH, FL and NC are wave insurañce for a D H as well as TX in a D plus 7 environment that's a blue wave but of course Traggy have Rs plus 9 49/40

Rs underperform in 2018 and 2019 Trump wasn't on the Ballot and these states have significant minorities along with Females voted it's VBM anyways they're not gonna count all the ballots ASAP anyways



Users this as soon as they count ballot like it's not VBM they all gonna go R didn't Rs learn from last time that didn't happen, Red Mirage, rural vote come in first and urban vote come in last, GEEZE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

>exact same GCB spread as their poll from two months ago even though Biden's approval dropped by 10 points since then

What even is this supposed to mean? There’s no reason for these two (GCB margin & Biden approval) to move in unison given how extremely inflexible the Democratic base is.

You can think that Biden is doing an even worse job than before without supporting Republicans as an (and the only) alternative. At some point, there’s going to be a ceiling for Republicans which can’t be inferred from the Biden approval/disapproval spread.

.
The Rs are losing in MI, WI and PA and NV anyways despite Biden Approvals and Trump had the same Approvals the Rs are the only ones that think it's not solidified we lead in NV, MI, WI and PA whether Biden is at 50 or 42%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes it is weighted. It is a professionally done poll.

The GCB is moving a few points to the Dems at the moment, possibly as a result of Dobbs. Given that polls are random sampling, a zero week to week change in some polls is to be expected, along with the movement to the Dems in some of the other polls.

The Rs we're losing in WI, PA, MI and NV and CO before Dobbs, the GCB moving a couple of pts the Insurrectionists commission is damaging the Rs anyways, users think Ds have to win Red states to get to 270, and think 303 blue wall states are Red, lol  Ra only won them in 1 PE in 2016 since 1988 Gore and Kerry lost CO, VA and NV not MI, WI and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs deserve to lose the used the Filibuster to block Biden Agenda

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter in Approvals Trump netted seats in 2018/2020 on the same Approvals as Biden as I keep saying this why because Trump got 75M votes and D's got 80M it's based on Turnout not Approvals and Matty doesn't realize Rs are behind in all the swing states 2010 was a different animal it was 10% unemployment and 95M votes

The models on Twitter shows a 230R H and 52/48D S and 26/24 Govs with Crist beating DeSantis but the Election is after Labor Day not after 4th of July anyways, Rs think Approvals are gonna save them and they are losing in every  blue wall state in S

Believe me I would just make an R nut map if I believe the Rs are gonna win but they're not winning Ryan and Crist are ahead and Demings and Beto and Beasley are down 5 pts MOE is 5/6 pts but I can't update my prediction on EDay and I don't want the Rs to win anyway

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-presidential-approval-tracker-06232022

IPSOS Tracking has R Approvals at 7% that's not gonna bite D anyways


For Matty and all R users the reason why Biden Approvals are 36% is because Republican not D's and Indies have Biden at 36, Rs approvals of Biden is 7% so to say the Rs are gonna absolutely sweep everything if disingenuous it's the Rs not Ds holding down Biden Approvals that's why we lead in all the swing states for the record

 Biden isn't at 36% he's at 44% like Trump was in 2018/2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1542228065123811329

Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

Or Democrats projected to suffer a wipeout bigger than 2010?

Depends on how the model weights potus approvals

Matty did it again associating Biden Approvals, D's again lead in all swing states, ARF🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, that sucks. The one good thing that could have come out of overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't seem to be materializing.

Do you see the Change pols showing D's in front Morning  Consult have D's ahead on GCB it's been within MOE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news DC STATEHOOD and Filibuster proof Sen🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note the reason why Rs net gained seats in 2020, it was before the insurrection they would lost alot more in 2020 post insurrection, that's why Rs lost GA insurrection

I am not naming names of D's win alot of users that make R nut maps are gonna be so wrong that's why I make the map the way I do in case D's win, D's outnumber Rs anyways we represent Chicago, SF, LA and NY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the state by state polls have D's well out in front in every swing state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gotta get the youth vote out.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544361329326231553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

It's a pre election poll not results, it's not real yet it's theory

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Insights has D's 47/42 in GCB
https://mobile.twitter.com/polltrackerusa

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not even Labor Day yet and we still have to vote LETS BE CLEAR THESE ARENT EXIT Polls AND THESE ARE PRE ELECTION POLLS Biden IS STILL LEADS TRUMP 44/41 ALL THESE DOOMERS ARE OUT NOW, I told you so and we haven't voted yet, in 2010/14 I still held out hope that we would win and Rs had a GB lead in 2010 the whole summer and the GCB has bounced around IN 2022, Rs held the GCB lead in 2010 because Obamacare was unpopular we lost 60 seats and 10% unemployment

It's a 303 map with wave insurance we will net WI, PA Sen and keep our incumbentts that gives us 51 Senate then we have GA like LA it's a runoff then for the H we look at fL and NC which are the first Senate races up and then PA and NH we know the spill and it then goes to OH, that's why I don't make R nut maps what if Fried, Demings, Beasley and Ryan come in for us D's based on Blk and Brown vote Rs are gonna get 1/3% if they get 6/12 like DeWine might get it's curtains for us but they are gonna get 1/3%, this is the Blk vote and the Rs lose the Latino vote too