2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How does YouGov/the Economist actually have a D +9 generic ballot? That is such a glaring error that one would think they would make efforts to change their methodology to achieve more realistic results. Their approval numbers for Biden are reasonable, so why is the GCB so extreme. How are they sampling so many Biden disapprove/congressional Dem supporting people?

It depends on turnout obviously Turnout is gonna be lower than 80/75 because it's a Midterm but if it's 65/60M Electorate we can still hold the blue wall because Newsom won bye the same margin and Terry lost because all of our Federal candidates weren't on the ballot TERRY lost bye 2 in Spanberger District

It's about holding the 304/234 blue wall and then going from there

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 10 mnths left and we didn't win 40 seats on Jan 2018, contrary to what Rs think we gotten we were expected to gain 10 seats in 2018 it expanded on Oct 2018 to 40 seats in the H

Election Guy and Rs think the EC map reflects now, but it's the End results and we should at very least win the 304)234 blue wall because the Insurrectionists Commission and Ron Johnson praised Insurrectionists, is gonna drop a bombshell on Trump right before the Election

Biden went from 13 pts down to a tie against Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has anyone else noticed that the Democrats have been doing pretty well in generic ballot polling recently? On January 5, 2018, the Dems were up 11 points on the RCP aggregate. The GOP is up by 1.6 right now. 538 had the Democrats up 10, but the Republicans are up by only 0.5 at the moment. The midterms are obviously still going to swing R, but it's probably not going to be some 2010 or 2014 redux like some doomers on here are heralding.

That could be a good point but there is a possibility that republicans will overperform their current polling or gain in their polling lead as the year goes on

Just a reminder that the generic ballot was D+1 when Glenn Youngkin (and every other statewide Republican) won narrowly in Virginia and Phil Murphy got 51% in New Jersey.

Also, Dems were "polling" at D+7 on the generic ballot in 2020, when they actually won by 3. This is going to be a historic polling miss if this average stays.

The insurrection Commission is dropping tibbids of negativity on the Rs so the Rs are gonna lose, everything isn't about VA we held onto Go ov for 8 yrs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA isn't Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inside Elections came out with their full Senate ratings:
https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2022-senate-ratings-january-7-2022

AZ: Tossup
FL: Likely R
GA: Tossup
NH: Tilt D
NV: Tossup
NC: Lean R
PA: Tilt R
WI: Lean R

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I would move Florida to Safe.. Wisconsin and North Carolina to Likely.

.lol they're not moving states unt the state by state polls come out not Approval ratings, how can Rs justify WI being safe ant the last 3 polls that was polled had Johnson losing

They're not moving states until the real polls come out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snowlabrador doesn't believe in the 277/289/304 blue 🧱🧱🧱

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't write off Tim Ryan yet the polls that we have seen have been tied and in 2018 OH split it's votes between DeWine and Brown and can again with DeWine and Ryan and as we see in the MI Gov poll Biden Approvals are not in freefall anymore

Rs haven't clinched anything yet and Schumer has set Monday for a date on Filibuster reform on Voting Rights,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is no way gonna be the final result on Election night 2022 that represents now, I expect the D's to do better than this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

Rs aren't 13 on CGB

You haven't seen IPSOS POLLS ITS 45/50?THIS WEEK AND IT WAS 49/48 last week and it was 52/48 3 wks ago, it's 10 mnths before the Election Biden isn't at 52/48 but he won 50)45 he will be 50/48 where he needs to be in IPSOS on Nov 2nd 2022, it's 3.0 unemployment with Blk Latino and female turnout


Users think Biden has to be at 58 Approvals to get a 303 map, CALM DOWN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sadly, I'm not that surprised.

You're not very optimistic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Traggy is so messed up no, it's like QU having Biden up 15 pts when Unemployment was declining from 9 to 7.5 percent, now they have Rs up 14 in a 3 percent unemployment Economy

Lol IPSOS has had Biden Approvals mostly at 49/48 not 43/64 he's not at 50/48 but he will be in 10 mnths

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GCB is D's plus 1, that Traggy R plus 13 won't happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I seriously doubt that RS are plus 6 just like that Traggy plus13 number

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore, polls are snap shots in time it's not over till the actual votes are counted not bye some poll


That's why I make my prediction preference the way I want because you never know what will happen it's VBM not same day voting. Same day voting is very predictable


Whom would of thought it was 80/75 M it can be 85/75 M D's you never know and a blue wave happens

It was predicted 65/62 M in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Somehow I don’t think Mark Kelly is ahead in an environment in which the last three GCB polls have been R+6, R+7, and R+8. Or that Gretchen Whitmer is leading by 5-10 points. Or that Pritzker and Walz will outperform their margins from a Democratic tidal wave in 2022.

It's not R +8 Environment other polls have had D's ahead c'mon with these GCB R plus 8 polls the only good yr was 2014 in R plus 5 and you guys lost NH and won CO and IL GOVS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They don't have anyone else in MI Craig and James and Larry Elder in CA, Newsom can get maybe 70 percent of the vote in CA this time a sweep alot of D's into the H in California,

It remains to be seen if Walker gets leverage but the Rs are cheating in GA, on Voter Suppression, that's why NC and LA are wave insurance, and it's a brand new ballgame in NC with Beasley she is a judge, is with a SCOTUS Blk female appointee and the last internal poll had her down 42/40 that's very close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1488371054716280832

Demings is not going to win. That $8.2 million really should be going to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

LoL the last poll had her down 45/41 it can happeb

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the Senate races are gonna track very closely to the Governor races if Election Guy you think WI, PA, AZ, NV are Lean R you aren't looking at the poll and they are aligning closely to our Gov races, and Nate Silver said it's a 304/234 map anyways not much changed since 2020

But, Election Guy always think WI is Lean R and Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin got elected and Johnson and Toomey won only by 200K votes, I also did my research too

Portman, Grassley and Rubio won by double digits 2M votes that's why it's a 304/234 map not an R but map we are all pollsters on this site, everyone does research on polls

It's only February not November plenty of time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's February not October too and COVID is ending too it's almost Spring, flu season is about over no more Omnicron

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's lead on GCB 42/37 on the You Gov poll it's February not October still too premature to celebrate for Rs and COVID is going down good for Biden this is the same Biden that beat Trump in 2028 and won 375 EC votes in 2008/12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know QU is trying so hard to make it a 2020 cycle they have Biden at 35/55 and they underpolled Blk and Latino voters 37 percent among Latinos how do you explain CA, IL, NM, NV, AZ and CO

Latino and BLK votes make up 30 percent of the D vote and Blks are not 54 it's 90)9

Why would Blk and Latino voters vote R 2)3 RDS of the poverty lie are Blk and Latino men due to prison and Homelessness

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1494330915975151630

Nice!

QU poll underpolled Latinos and Blks Rs aren't winning by 13' pts where are the ABC or Marist polls only Rassy and Traggy are giving us GCB

How can we believe GCB polls and Biden low Approvals and there aren't any NC, OH, WI or PA polls if Fetterman or Ryan or Beasley are down 20 pts which they're not then I will believe these numbers

Demings and Crist are down by 7 and DeSajtis overcame with a mnth left after he beat Putnam in primary a six pt DEFICIT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember whom is in charge of Rassy and Tralfager pills Fox News we need some Fox polls that give us the truth on the 303 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bye-bye democracy, I'll miss you.

Lol do you ever stop Hobbs is tied with Lake in Gov poll Vaccinated Bear only post polls he likes IPSOS HAS US 42/34 ON GCB


It's nine mths till EDay it's not October

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I don't believe it, and it's still nine MNTHS till the Election, Morning Consult has Biden at 47 I seriously doubt Ukraine bombings is gonna go on forever, Rs are getting a temporary bump but an overwhelming bump and we don't have any WI, PA state by state polls and Fetterman was narrowly leading OZ I don't believe

These polls aren't to believe because we still have nine mnths and Rs are winning the GCB by ,49)41 their best night was 2014 and we lost IL R plus
Is it October no it's not, when has the Rs ever won the GCB by double digits never