They can’t win the PV without Trump being on the ballot and driving millions upon millions of low-propensity voters to the polls
Trump lost a midterm due to impeachment and Trump never had an approval above,51% and Obama lost seats due to fact we had 11% unemployment, D's will buck the midterm collapse as long as Biden stays away 44% approvals
Rs don't want D's to have a Trifecta due to fact they don't want Crt Packing and DC enshrined as Statehood Old School Republican had said so in many of his threads. That's the motivation of Rs that they want to see a Red wave in 2022