Races where your "gut" differs from your "head"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT, we don't know how it's gonna play our, we have gotten very few polls, the same with AK, Gross can win with a plurality of the vote

Both Bullock and Gross are great candidates and will be great additions to Senate, but MT Treasurer believes bipartisan bills for Daines and he is holding up the stimulus checks for consumers with Leader McConnell

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My “gut” (which likely still has 2016 PTSD) tells me that Republicans will hold every competitive seat of theirs, keeping the Senate 52-48 (only AL, AZ, and CO flip) while my head tells me Democrats will gain five seats, for a 51-49 Senate. So definitely ME and NC, plus one more race.

AK KS and MT and SC are very competitive and so is IA. GA will definitely go to runoffs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In general, my head says Democrats will do better than my gut. I still worry about Rs winning NC, ME, and IA, even though logically, I think they are favored to lose all 3 right now (IA will be very close though and could really go either way).

In a few red states, my gut is more hopeful than my head because my head thinks partisanship will win out more than expected.

What happened to Gross and AK, he was your candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is behind by 14 pts, D's can win AK, GA, IA, KS, MT and SC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

According to the OP in this thread, he thinks Rs and Trump are getting stronger not weaker that's why he has James, Ernst and Collins still winning and he is the only R that believes this, most Rs have conceded ME and MI😃😃😃

Even Ernst was down by 12 in 1 poll
Trump is down by 14 pts