Will Republicans have a lock on the senate in the 2030s and beyond? (user search)
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  Will Republicans have a lock on the senate in the 2030s and beyond? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will Republicans have a lock on the senate in the 2030s and beyond?  (Read 820 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,314
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: April 07, 2020, 08:15:38 PM »

Considering JD Scholten,  Tim Ryan and Joe Kennedy may all win Senate seats and are 2028 Dem Prez prospects in 2028, no the GOP have elders in McConnell,  Graham whom may be defeated in 2020 and new generations of Dem Leaders emerge in the Senate in 2020s, so no.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,314
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2020, 03:35:37 AM »

Considering JD Scholten,  Tim Ryan and Joe Kennedy may all win Senate seats and are 2028 Dem Prez prospects in 2028, no the GOP have elders in McConnell,  Graham whom may be defeated in 2020 and new generations of Dem Leaders emerge in the Senate in 2020s, so no.


I love this bog standard old Atlas analysis, "Democrats have these amazing candidates, Republican candidates are all terrible...."

Then half the time these amazing Dem candidates get caught in a scandal, or run and get destroyed or end up losing to a crappy GOP candidate simply because of demographics or the cycle.

If I had a dollar for every time: someone was sure that Rob Portman was going to be defeated because of his ties to Bush or Pat Toomey was going to be defeated b/c he is more conservative than Santorum, and don't get me started on Missouri. 

There is this pre-disposition on this site, to proclaim every new, young moderate Democrat from a red state as the next JFK.



Kate McGinty,  Strickland and Bayh all had scandals and Tim Ryan, JD Scholten and Joe Kennedy have none. Had Joe Sestak ran in 2016, he would have defeated Toomey. IA, OH, WI and PA are gonna be contested again in 2022. Toomey received money from Bloomberg for his support for gun control rights, that wont be there in 2022, due to Bloomberg becoming a Dem in 2020
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,314
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2020, 04:30:28 PM »

Doubt it. Domination of a branch of Congress for that long is gonna prove to be more and more difficult

2020, 2022, and 2024 Senate maps are difficult with so many R retirements
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