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June 10, 2024, 03:32:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: TX-SEN: True to Form  (Read 160412 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: March 29, 2017, 08:59:38 PM »
Endorsed O'Rourfe 4 Senate, Dina Titus, and Kysten Sinema
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2017, 08:05:43 PM »
Quote from: President dfwlibertylover on March 30, 2017, 06:32:16 PM
Solid R, goodbye competitive Texas chances, only someone like Ivy Taylor could actually be competitive and even then not really.

If the House flips and the Dems net 6-10 Govs mansions and its a Democratic tsunami, when the Repeal of Obamacare fails, and the Freedom Caucus loses to the same Blue Dog Dems they defeated in 2010, then O'Rourke will win.

But, we didn't see the GOP wave in Nov, 2016 either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2017, 08:28:55 PM »
We shall see
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2017, 05:04:02 PM »
We must take this with caution; AZ, NV and TX will be competetive only if the House is in reach for the Dems to take as well as having a wave in governor mansions.

But, Cruz and Flake aside from Heller like McCaskill and Donnelly won't have easy reelections.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2017, 09:11:59 PM »
I think if O'Rourke is unestimated, he will surprise everyone, I am willing to give him a shot.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2017, 09:51:12 PM »
Wave insurance like Kander.  But, if Clinton had won, he would have won too, despite Trump carrying MO.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2017, 04:38:11 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2017, 04:42:10 PM by Da-Jon »
If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2017, 10:51:41 AM »
Quote from: Heisenberg on June 13, 2017, 06:42:15 PM
Quote from: We're never gonna have it so good! on June 13, 2017, 06:39:54 PM
Quote from: Da-Jon on June 13, 2017, 04:38:11 PM
If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.
No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.
The map is so bad for Dems I'd add Tester, Brown, and maaaaybe Baldwin. But, the bottom line is, arguing with a troll is a waste of time.

Well, Ted Cruz won't have an easy reelection.  I doubt Dems lose more than 2 seats.  Obama had a rough 2010 and Dems lost 50 House seats and 7 seats.  Dems want to return that favor since we don't have the SCOTUS.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2017, 12:49:16 PM »
ORourke isn't gonna give up and in a neutral environment, the state won't be in play. But, its a Democratic year and he can have his chance.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2017, 09:26:25 AM »
O'Rourke is in a good position to have an upset victory.  Last year, Toomey was down in every single poll up to election day and he had less than 50% of victory and came back and won due to the red wave. 

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2018, 12:49:26 PM »
MS is more likely to flip than TX
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2018, 06:47:40 PM »
No one knows who Beto is.  From a media stand point.  Mike Espy and David Baria are much better known. But, in this environment, neither are flipping, though
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2018, 07:18:32 PM »
I was talking about in the mode of Julian Castro, they are like the darlings of Democrats in TX.  In order to take down Cruz,  you have to go with a better candidate.  The same holds true in 2020 against Cornyn
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2018, 07:25:01 PM »
Well David Baria isn't well known.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2018, 10:08:49 AM »
Cruz will win 6-9 points.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2018, 01:04:20 PM »
We still haven't seen no pictures, he could of been killed, there, who knows
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2018, 10:33:31 PM »
TX is probably, safe GOP
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2018, 02:34:00 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on June 28, 2018, 01:26:19 PM
With the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, RIP Beto.


No, Trump has problems with Latinos, and TX can be a surprise, as well as FL on election day. You shouldn't count Beto or Nelson out.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2018, 04:51:02 PM »
Cruz is favored, but he can be Warnered in an upset, due to Latino vote,😀
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2018, 04:31:45 PM »
Beto needs to keep what he's doing, outreach and let Cruz ignore the ethnic minority vote. The Kavanaugh appointment speaks for itself for ethnic minorities
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2018, 10:58:44 PM »
Beto will win this race on election day, not by daily tracking polls, in which failed to predict the chances of Gillespie against Warner. Which it will be an upset if Beto were to win
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2018, 08:07:31 AM »
3 House seats that Greg Abbott would redistrict right back to GOP
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2018, 07:46:22 PM »
Beto wasnt going to win and no major endorsements have been made on his behalf, like TN Times just endorsed Bredesen, due to the blandness of Marsha Blackburn
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2018, 10:39:56 PM »
The GOP upset Dems in WI/PA, in 2016; the Dems can return the favor by winning TN & TX
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,282
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2018, 02:02:29 PM »

If this waa a regular election, you can state that. But, Trump polls very low with Latinos
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