Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Madigans who I think are very much ideological the same as Giannoulias have been able to neutralize the downstate republican vote to win statewide office, surely Giannoulias could.

Fiscal restraint, low taxes and energy production and health care will drive the vote in Illinois.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poshard was pro-life and lost 200,000 votes in Cook County, because of that. The NW suburbs want to break away from Cook County, do to tax issues. Statewide races will determine that issue and that alone can make or break the senate race for either candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think in order for  Dems to lose they have to root for things to go bad like the Blagojevich and todd stroger, barring that it leans Democratic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Female moderates are more attrative to Democratic Illinois voters than the opposite: Corrine Wood, Judy Baar and Judy Biggart. I think that will still hold true, but we will have to see.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was in a Republican blue collar suburb and he marginally won his district back in 2008, I don't think he will buck the trend and pick up that many more than he did back then.  And besides the fact this is Obama's backyard, Rahn Emanual will be heavily involved in this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The fact he ran against Seals doesn't bold well for him and he doesn't support Obama's health care reform effort that Blacks, expecially the ones that uses Cook County hospital uses.

I think Kirk will have better luck with hispanics and gay rights issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And as the Clinton-Lazio race, the GOP has to root for corruption to even come close to winning this race. He has to root for the failures of the Blagojevich and Roland Burris corruption trial to arrouse voters to winning this race.  Barring that clear cut Giannoulias win.

Just like before, when Rasmussen had a poll out on the PA, R2k,  will show the race where it really is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Rasmussen had PA a double digit deficit for Specter and you can take that with a grain of salt as well.  I don't rely solely on Rasmussen polls, I take them in conjunction with other polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Broadview and Cicero, where latinos live will prevent Kirk from sweeping the county by that margin, the Census will show the growth of latinos in that area.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Seals was running for the US Senate or another Statewide Elected Office than bringing out minority support will be revelant- Seals is running for the US House of Representative from a Suburban Chicago Congressional District- where White Pro Choice Moderates are key to winning the general.  Winning IL-10 is like winning PA-13.

I agree but not to the extent that it relates to our president Barack Obama being in Illinois resident as well
This is my hypothesis, I can be wrong, but I predict:

I was referring to the fact that Seals and Obama appear to the average voter as being multiracial and could blunt alot of the racial prejudices that go along with being black, as far as the North shore. If people don't know who Dan Seals is, they sure know who is Obama.

And that in turn can help the Democratic voters down the ballot due the fact that swing voters will see Dems being multiracial as well as bring the black turnout up.

Barack Obama's election brought Dems and Independent voters out and he only ran for one office, Seals can do the same, I believe, not just in the House.  Many voters I talk to outside his district like Seals.

Regardless, I don't think Obama will let his own state slip into the republican column.